S&P 500 - Triple Screen Analysis - Week: 05 March to 09 March 2012 - Doji'ng the Bears..

Recap: The SP500 was resisted at last year's high and we looked for direction in last week's study (post here). The index had developed a Bearish Harami on the EOD and it was below the 5 EMA. However  we had assessed then, that it was not yet 'Advantage Bears'. 

In last weeks action the Bulls took the index back above the 5 EMA on the EOD charts and this fightback keeps the Bulls on top - what next?

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart - 09 March 2012

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM): The MA crossovers we studied last week are still in place, the divergences have vanished as of now. This chart looks distinctly Bullish, but for the hesitation written on the peak - in struggling to move above last year's high.

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart - 09 March 2012

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW): After 4 weeks of staying above the 5 EMA, this week's candle has taken support near the 10 EMA. The Bulls have dodged the Bears this week with a 'Doji'. So let us read about that - as a refresher from some free resources on the net...

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:introduction_to_candlesticks
http://www.candlestickforum.com/PPF/Parameters/12_221_/candlestick.asp
http://thepatternsite.com/NorthernDoji.html

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart - 09 March  2012

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD): The Bulls were happy to stay within the same channel as last week, and stage a bounce back, to end on top, above the 5 EMA. The Bearish cross of the 5 EMA below the 13 SMA remains - leaving the Bulls with diminished momentum. 

Since we are a Study Blog - here is something to mull on...inspired by the last three candles on the chart above..

http://www.moneycontrol.com/technicals/news/candlestick-patterns/advance-block-bearish-reversal-pattern_578785.html
http://www.fxwords.com/b/bearish-advance-block.html
http://thepatternsite.com/ThreeWhiteSoldiers.html

Looking Forward: The long term Charts viz. the EOM and EOW, are in Bull mode. On the EOD one sees some hope for the Bears. If the 5 EMA 13 SMA cross remains Bearish and the price then breaks below 5 EMA, one sees early signs of Bear strength. Staying within the current channel on the EOD keeps the Bull safe for now.

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 09 03 2012 - Between the DMA and the Wall

Nifty - End of Day - 09 Mar  2012

The Nifty took support exactly on the 200 DMA (Intra-day) yesterday, as we studied here (go here for post ) 

The Nifty crossed back above the 34 EMA also today. Our note that the 34 EMA and 200 DMA are good supports (go here for post) played true.

The cross of the 34 EMA over the 200 DMA looks good even now. 

Notice the volume action.

Between our Wall at 5484 and the 200 DMA currently around 5165, is the battle zone for now.

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 06 03 2012 - Bears pull UP their act..

Nifty - End of Day - 05 March  2012

Above one can see the action as of EOD yesterday - Monday 05, March 2012, the Price settled exactly on the 34 EMA, our range's lower end.
As mentioned in the weekend analysis (see 'Looking Forward') - after one day and half (today) of consolidation and some strong Fundamental cues, the index has broken out of our range on the lower side - see chart below...
The 200 DMA is the next support, about 50 points below today's close and our range's lower end as of now..

Nifty - End of Day - 06 March 2012

CNX Nifty - Triple Screen Analysis - Week: 27 Feb to 02 Mar '2012 - Consolidation Times Continue..

Recap: After some serious long unwinding early in the week (see post) - the Bears kept the index below the Fib 76x (EOD chart) and in consolidation mode.  The price stayed above the 34 EMA and below the 5 EMA as marked last weekend on EOD. Currently the Bulls are attempting a comeback using the 13 SMA on the EOM as the base. A look at the March candle's 'low' on the Ichimoku Study of last weekend (post here) would lend credence to this point. 

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 02 M arch 2012

Nifty - End of Month Chart (EOM): One hoped for the 5 EMA cross above the 13 SMA to happen as the March candle appeared. This was not to be. Ringing in the long term Bull times is kept for another day then. The Bulls would like to continue the up move from where they are and the Bears would like to keep it below 5484 - the Wall for this month..

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 24 Feb  2012

Nifty - End of Week Chart (EOW): The resistance line on the STS indicator shown last week, is not yet breached. Bulls have kept well above our 13 month resistance line (black) and 34 EMA.  

Nifty - End of Day - 2 March  2012

Nifty - End of Day Chart (EOD): The Bearish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA defined the action last week. Bulls seek to get above the 5 EMA, Blue line and the Fib76x to regain some momentum. Notice that our harbinger of  long term Bullishness - the 34 EMA over 200 DMA cross is still good.

Looking Forward: Bulls look to make a beeline for the Wall - 5484 and crack it. The time for that action may depend on how much more bear pressure the 34 EMA over 200 DMA cross can take, while  still intact. Last week's lows have some solid pedigree. Consolidation should continue until our range on the EOD gives up on either side.

S&P 500 - Triple Screen Analysis - Week: 27 Feb to 02 Mar '2012 - Flirting with last year's High

Recap: The SP500 was hovering around last year's high when we discussed it last (post here). The index has closed above last year's high just once on EOD basis, in last week's action. Currently below these highs, one looks for direction from these oversold levels.

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart - 02 March 2012

S&P 500 End of Month Chart (EOM) : As we move into March, the EOM chart above, shows us a flat line at its tip. The 5 EMA has decisively moved above the 13 SMA, indicating long term Bull strength. One can study past action of these moving averages by looking at the earlier crossovers in the chart. A re-look at the following studies (which we first studied here) will put things in proper perspective.

http://www.traderslog.com/moving-average-crossovers/ 

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:trading_strategies:arthur_hill_on_movin

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart - 02 March 2012

S&P 500 End of Week Chart (EOW): The weekly channels are in white - across the colored monthly channel lines. The SP500 continues its climb using the middle channel line as resistance. Support for last week was the 5 EMA on the EOW Charts. 

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart - 02 March  2012

S&P 500 End of Day Chart (EOD): The re-aligned Day channel lines are in yellow and are inclined at the same angle as the Weekly channel lines. One can see from the last 5 candles that most of last week's action was in a tight range. SP500 has closed the week a tad below the 5 EMA on the EOD - Bulls however, are still in control.

Looking Forward: The divergences seen last week only resulted in some ranging  - the Bulls retain strength - Bears would look at keeping the price on the EOD below the 5 EMA. Bulls should be happy to remain in the current channel - on the EOD chart. Incidentally the last two candles on the EOD chart forms a 'Bearish Harami' (studied here earlier). However this rather weak 'bearish pattern' does not make it 'Advantage Bears' yet...