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Sunday, November 18, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 12 November to 16 November, 2012 - Bears Gain some more




S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price)  (or) EOM Chart:
S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - 16 November, 2012
 Above is the Month Chart - EOM - analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward




S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price) (or) EOW Chart:
S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - 16 November, 2012
Above is the Week Chart - EOW -  analyzing Data from Q4, 2011, onward.





S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move)  (or) EOD Chart:
S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  16 November, 2012
Above is the Day Chart - EOD -  analyzing Data from Oct'2012, onward.




Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)

The last three candles on the EOM #1 resembles a Three Inside Down - having gone below last month's close as studied - last week rewarded the Bears who caught on to this move.
Our EOW channel #3 is redrawn to include a larger time frame - now shows the price breaking out of the channel. 
Support on the '23.6% Fibonacci retrace of the Oct'07 High and Mar'09 Low' #1 and #5 works as the Price comes back to end around this level.





Looking forward into the next Week:

The Blue center line of the Month Channel #1 and the '23.6% Fibonacci retrace of the Oct'07 High and Mar'09 Low' #1 and #5  are supports after this fall.
13 SMA #1 on Month Chart is immediate support for the Bulls and the MVWAP 34 on the Week chart #3 is the immediate resistance.
STS #2 position shows the long term strength at this point of time - and one sees another up move beyond above immediate resistances.
EOW channel bottom #3 could see the price testing it on a pullback, on this up move.
So staying above last week's close i.e. on the '23% Fib' - one sees the Bulls returning fire - with the pull back discussed above, to start with.




CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 12 November to 16 November, 2012 - Bears Score some more




Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 16 November, 2012
 Above is the Month Chart - EOM -  analyzing Data from 2008 onward.





Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 16 November, 2012
Above is the Week Chart - EOW -  analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward.





Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices  (or) EOD Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 16 November, 2012
Above is the Day Chart - EOD - analyzing Data from July 2012, onward. 





Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

The signal line action vis-à-vis the MACD line was a deflect #6, giving the bears a good run.
The 13 SMA on the EOW #3, supported the Bulls.
The 5 EMA on the Day chart #5 - moved into the  13 SMA for a bearish cross as anticipated. 
The short fuse indicator #2, stays up even with the Nov candle's going red.
STS holding in the oversold zone as a measure of Bull strength to come
EOD chart shows the two channels #5 which hold the Price for now.



Looking Forward into the next Week:

The two channels shown on the EOD #5 - currently keep away the complete breakdown for Bulls in the Short term - holding above these channel bottom lines, would mean a resumption of the up move.
Failure to keep above the 13 SMA on the Week chart #3, STS breaking below the Bull line #4 - would be early indicators that the Bears mean Business.
The 5 EMA and 13 SMA have crisscrossed each other 5-6 times in the past few weeks - a Bullish Cross next week or the lack of one, would measure the resolve of the Bulls.