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Saturday, April 28, 2012

The BSE 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 23 April to 27 April 2012 - In and out of the Kumo..



......Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......


Introduction:

We do a weekly Ichimoku study, to complement our 'Triple Screen Technical Analysis', of the markets we track to learn Technical Analysis.
When taking the 'weekly' time frame, to use the Ichimoku Cloud, we need to consider...

The standard settings for an Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart are 9, 26, 52 and are used on EOD charts.  
When Ichimoku was created back in the 1930s, a trading week was 6 days long.  So we have one and a half week(9), one month(26) and two months(52). 
Now that the trading week is 5 days, we should actually use 7,  22 and 44 instead. 
However, the majority of systems, worldwide, still use the old settings 9, 26, 52. 

We need to study markets, on a weekly basis on this Blog.  
How do we fit 52, 26 and 9 into that need?  With one candle being one week?
There are 52 weeks in a year, 26 weeks form two quarters (or a half year) and 9 weeks equal about 2 months.  Fits the old logic - albeit differently.
Presto, we have a longer term view with the same settings!

So, if you like to move off the beaten track, for a change...read on...


Quick Reference : 
Chikou Span - purple line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.


Useful resources (free) from the Web:




BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud: 

The BSE Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 27 April 2012  

Last 7 Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart above:
1. Senkou Span Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (S)
2. Chikou Span Cross: Weak Bullish Signal (C)
3. The Kijun sen cross: Weak Bullish Signal (K)
4. The Flat Kumo: Bullish Signal (Ko)
5. The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Weak Bullish Signal (T)
6. The Kumo Breakout: Bearish Signal (B)
7. Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (C)

Also marked on the chart, in Blue ... to discuss this week's action ...
2: The Chikou Span (purple line) has finally crossed the price line bearishly (C). As this action happened when the Price was below the Kumo, the Bearish Signal is deemed 'Strong'.
3: The last candle has moved back out of the Kumo - Bearish Kumo breakout (B

Just as in last week, the Price is above the Kijun Sen and M VWAP 34 -  This is Bullish .
See circle - the Bullish Senkou Span cross, which seemed imminent - may be delayed. 
The Price has moved in and out of the Kumo for quite a few weeks, its still near this wall.

Conclusion: Bulls have lost ground again last week, however staying above the Kijun Sen, Bulls still have a chance to move up.

The Dow 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 23 April to 27 April, 2012 - Bulls Move..



.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......


Introduction:

We do a weekly Ichimoku study, to complement our 'Triple Screen Technical Analysis', of the markets we track to learn Technical Analysis.
When taking the 'weekly' time frame, to use the Ichimoku Cloud, we need to consider...

The standard settings for an Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart are 9, 26, 52 and are used on EOD charts.  
When Ichimoku was created back in the 1930s, a trading week was 6 days long.  So we have one and a half week(9), one month(26) and two months(52). 
Now that the trading week is 5 days, we should actually use 7,  22 and 44 instead. 
However, the majority of systems, worldwide, still use the old settings 9, 26, 52. 

We need to study markets, on a weekly basis on this Blog.  
How do we fit 52, 26 and 9 into that need?  With one candle being one week?
There are 52 weeks in a year, 26 weeks form two quarters (or a half year) and 9 weeks equal about 2 months.  Fits the old logic - albeit differently.
Presto, we have a longer term view with the same settings!

So, if you like to move off the beaten track, for a change...read on...


Quick Reference : 
Chikou Span - purple line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.


Useful resources (free) from the Web:



DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud: 
DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 27 April 2012  
Last 6 Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart above:

1. Senkou Span Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (S)
2. Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (C)
3. Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (T)
4. Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal (B)
5. The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)
6Tenkan Sen Cross: Strong Bullish  Signal (minor signal - see arrow)

1. Price crossing the Tenkan Sen (red line) is considered as an early warning sign of sentiment reversal. The reversal was studied last weekend (click) and the consequent candle (last one above) is a Bull's reward.

Conclusion is same as pointed out last week, 'Bulls are still all over this screen. Bears need to get Index below the Tenkan Sen, to have a chance of taking this one over.'

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 23 April to 27 April, 2012 - Bulls find Channel Support.

Recap:
Last week (click) our view Looking Forward was, quote ..
"MVWAP 34 (EOD) to our White Channel bottom (EOW), is the range to break, going into next week... and  Longs would pin their hopes on the Bullish Harami (EOW), even if its reliability is low..." unquote..
Our Call was correct, as we studied in our Intra Week, EOD Analysis: click and click
The MVWAP34 was broken & we have the "Three Inside up" that the Bulls hoped for. 
Let us check out the action of last week, and find the way forward..




S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart with closing prices in a line graph (or) EOM Chart: 
S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - 27 April, 2012. 
Bulls continue to rule this screen.
The last candle of the screen (not shown) looks like a Doji - shall study once month ends.
Currently the close of last month, and open of current month, are exactly equal.
Month end view is awaited.




S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:  
S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - 27 April, 2012.
As the Bulls hoped (see last week's EOW), the Bullish Harami mutated into a "Three Inside up".
The 10 EMA is set for a touch and go (studied earlier, a.k.a: deflection) with the 13 SMA, can produce an explosive up move, if it materializes.
Weekly close is above all Short term MAs that we study.
Channel lines are realigned to the last Price action.
The RSI has closed above the MA3 - see Indicator below chart.
Bulls are back, on this medium term chart..

Another study of the "Three Inside up" for your reading..




S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart where each candle is 1 day's price action (or) EOD Chart: 
S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) - 27 April, 2012.  
Break of the previous range at the MVWAP34 gives us this realigned channel (yellow).
Price has closed above all short term MAs that we study, they are bullishly crossed over, and we are above the MVWAP 34.  
Bulls are on top, in the Short Term too..



Looking Forward:
Staying above the MVWAP34 (EOD), the Bulls have a clear run to the channel top.
The "Three Inside up" and "Deflection" from the EOW study add hope for the Bulls.
The Candle pattern, that this month is forming, is a vote for the Bears. Shall be studied on month close.