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Saturday, September 15, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 10 September to 14 September, 2012 - Nxt stop 2008 High ?




S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price move)  (or) EOM Chart:  
S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - 14 Sept, 2012
 Above is the Month Chart - EOM - analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward. 





S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price move) (or) EOW Chart:
S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - 10 Sept, 2012.
Above is the Week Chart - EOW -  analyzing Data from Q2-Q3 2012, onward.





S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move)  (or) EOD Chart:    
S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  10 Sept, 2012.
Above is the Day Chart - EOD -  analyzing Data from Aug-Sept 2012, onward.






Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)
Bulls continued to be on a Roll last week too.
After breaching the last high of the year the previous week, Bulls kept moving to reach the channel top (2), last week.
The Week's channel is tested (4,6)
The '-ve' divergence on the RSI (5) is persistent.
Key indicators are in the oversold zone (3,5)





Looking forward into the next Week:
Month Channel's top (2) at 1494 (for Sept) is a critical resistance for the Index.
Clearing this resistance with force, would place the 2008 high (1) of 1576, within reach.
Failure at this spot gives the Bears, their best crash option of this year.
'-ve' divergences (3,5) enthuse the Bears.
The Week's Channel being breached (4,6)- give the Bulls further fire.
Watching the action at the month channel's top line (2), makes ample sense.




CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 10 Sept to 14 Sept, 2012 - Fibonacci Gains




Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart: 
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 10 Sept, 2012
Above is the Month Chart - EOM -  analyzing Data from 2008 onward. 





Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 10 Sept, 2012.
Above is the Week Chart - EOW -  analyzing Data from 2010 onward.





Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices  (or) EOD Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 10 Sept, 2012.
Above is the Day Chart - EOD - analyzing Data from May 2012, onward. 





Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)
Bulls took off from above the confluence of the Wall (5315) and the Week Channel's top (3) - to reach the Day Channel top(5).
Crossing the Fibonacci 76.4 % with force - helped Bulls run up, to the previous high of this year.
The short fuse oscillator (2) - ticks up once again, displaying this month's action - to date.
Negative Divergence - MACD - persists (6).
STS on EOW (4) nudges the oversold line for the third time this year - lucky 3?.






Looking Forward into the next Week:
The support at STS (4) helps the Bulls. 
Index sustaining above the Fibonacci 76.4 %, as marked on the EOW (3) - would keep the Bull run intact.
A massive Pullback to the Monthly Channel's Green bottom line (1) - is on the cards, if above happens. 
Bears have the EOD Channel top (5) and '-ve' divergence (6) to look forward to.
The EOD channel top resistance (5) gives the Bears, a chance of redemption, with a 'throwback' to EOW channel top (3).





The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 10 Sept to 14 Sept, 2012 - Next High : 2008's..




                               .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 
Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as marked on chart below:

Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal (B)
The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)
The Kijun sen cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (K)
Tenkan Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Te)
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish  Signal (T)




DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud: 
DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 10 Sept, 2012 




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)
Staying above the Tenkan Sen - Bulls did break the last high as anticipated.
Bulls avoided a Bearish Chikou Span Cross (b) last week - the resultant deflection produced a good run, just as it did earlier (a).
The Oscillator ticks up (c), divergence is persistent.




Looking Forward into the next Week:
The negative divergence, developing on the Oscillator - remains the drag, for the Bulls.
Chikou Span staying above the price - Bulls can look at the 2008 highs next.
Bears would need to break their nemesis, the MVWAP 34 on the downside.
The position of the Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen continues to auger a bearish Cross, unless the Bulls keep the momentum.. up.




BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 10 September to 14 September, 2012 - Chikou Cross Gains..




                          .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 

Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as shown on chart below:

The Tenkan Sen Cross:  Weak  Bullish   Signal (Te)
The Senoku Span Cross:  Neutral  Bullish  Signal (Ss)
The Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral  Bullish Signal (K)
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong  Bullish Signal (T) 
The Kumo Break-out: Bullish Signal (B)  
The Chikou Span Cross:  Strong   Bullish Signal (Cc) 



BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:
The BSE  Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 10 Sept, 2012.





Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)
Bulls beat the last high of this year - after the Strong Bullish Chikou Cross (Cc) which we were watching out for, over the last few weeks.
The Oscillator continues to tick up.
Oscillator's Negative divergence to Price persists.




Looking forward into the next Week:
Bears need to take out the duo of the MVWAP 34 and Tenkan Sen to make an impact.
Staying above the Kumo - advantage is with the Bulls.
Bears have the Oscillator's divergence as their ray of hope.