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Monday, October 13, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Channel Support - Week 3 of October 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 10 Oct'14


S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 10 Oct'14


S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Jan'14, onward - as on 10 Oct'14





Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • Long Term Bullish Engulfing failed to become a three outside up, see the last 4 Month candles #M1.
  • Index touch down on the Weekly Channel Bottom is exact #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls defend the Week channel bottom on the EOW #W1 and 200 SMA on the EOD #D1.
  • Bears have their best week in a long time as MVWAP 34 is breached #W1.
Moving Averages:  
    • 5 EMA and 13 SMA, cross Bearishly on the EOW #W1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 down to the 40s #W2.

    Wrap:
    Bulls take support exactly at our Medium Term Channel bottom #W1. 
    Bears use the failed Bullish Engulfing to good advantage to touch the 200 SMA after a long time #W1.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Stick Sandwich Pattern (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) active in the Medium Term screen #W1.
    • Bullish Engulfing on long term charts, failed to evolve into a 3 outside up (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #M1.
    • Medium Term Channel Provides exact support for the Bulls #W1.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • EOD channel Bottom #D1 and the weekly 13 SMA (1970) are resistances.
    • The EOW channel bottom #W1 and the 200 SMA #D1 are the Supports.
    Moving Averages:
    • The Index is above the 13 SMA on the EOM (1883) #M1.
    Indicators:
    • STS in the over sold, works for the Bears #D2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls look to defend the 200 SMA on the EOD, taking support at the Weekly Channel Bottom #W1. 
    Bears, after denying the Bulls a '3 outside up' last month #M1, and closing below 1959 last week, now aim for 1883. 

    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Kijun Sen Folds - Week 3 of October 2014.



    Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 10 Oct'14



    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bears force break-down from Peak 2 - Bulls manage to hold previous lows #W2.

    Gap between Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen same #W2.
    Gap between  Senoku Span A-B reduces #W3.



    Wrap: Index falls and closes below Kijun Sen, after 50 odd weeks #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Keeping below the Tenkan Sen - Bears aim for the Kumo #W2.
    Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would continue to show direction going forward #W2.
    Chikou Span bouncing off the Price line, is the next Bull hope #W1.


    Wrap: Bears seek reach the Kumo #W2 - Bulls hope the Chikou Span would bounce off the Price line #W1.



    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Channel Tussle - Week 3 of October 2014.



    Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 10 Oct'14


    Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 10 Oct'14


    Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 10 Oct'14




    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


    Patterns:
    • Evening Doji Star happens if index stays below 7964 this month - Bulls fail to sustain above this number all last week #M1.
    • 'Inside Bar' on the weekly chart is followed by a High Wave candle #W1.
    • Tussle at the current Day Channel bottom sees Bulls finding respite at earlier Day Channel bottom (blue) all last week #D1,
    Support & Resistance:
    • Bears crack the 13 SMA on the EOW after getting below 7912, the October Wall #W1.
    • Bulls find support at S1 of the Monthly Pivot #M1,
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD remain Bearishly crossed #D1.
    Indicators:
    • MACD dives below the zero line - Histogram ticks up #D2. 

    Wrap:
    Index below the October Wall (7912) after Bears light the hope of an Evening Doji Star happening #M1. Bulls back up against S1 of the monthly pivot #M1.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • Possibility of a Long Term Evening Doji Star (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) happening is brighter and now depends on this month's close (below 7964) #M1.
    • Inside Day' Pattern on the Weekly Chart (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) is active as is the next candle the 'High Wave' (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #W1.
    • Tussle at the current and earlier Day Channel bottoms should resolve early in the week to allow the channels to re-form #D1,
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index support that the Bulls want to hold, is the S1 on the Monthly Pivot and 7760 #W1.
    • Bears look to defend the 5 EMA on the weekly charts (7943) and 7964 #W1. 
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - the MA's are currently back to converging #D1.
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW will cross Bearishly below 7760 #W1.
    Indicators:
    • STS staying in the overbought, works for the Bulls #W2.


    Wrap :
    Staying above the S1 of the Month Pivot #M1, and closing above 7964 are high on the Bull agenda for the Month.
    Bears have all of October to work for an Evening Doji Star #M1, immediate task is to keep the Index below the October Wall (7912).



    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Folds - Week 3 of October 2014.



    BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 10 Oct'14



    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bulls fail to keep it above the Tenkan Sen #W2.
    Senkou Span A & B - gap lower #W3.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap also reduces #W2


    Wrap: Index hangs around the previous major High, but slips below the Tenkan Sen 
    #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    A Bearish, Chikou Span cross with Price line, at current altitude, will need time #W1.
    Bulls need to get back above the Tenkan Sen #W2.
    Senkou Span 'A & B' converging, remains good for Bears #W3.


    Wrap: Bears seek to keep t
    he index below the Tenkan Sen and get to the Kijun Sen, Bull focus is to get above previous High and attempt a new ATH (All Time High) #W2.