Monday, September 29, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Sandwich Time? - Week 1 of October 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 26 Sept'14


S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 26 Sept'14


S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Jan'14, onward - as on 26 Sept'14




Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • Long Term Bullish Engulfing becoming a 3 outside up, is still possible by month end - see the last 3 Month candles #M1.
  • Pullback of Price to EOD channel bottom #D1a - completes and Index falls as studied.
  • Stick Sandwich Pattern forms on the EOW #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls defend the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1.
  • Post Pull back to Channel bottom - Index continues with the fall as studied #D1a.
Moving Averages:  
    • 5 EMA and 13 SMA, cross Bearishly on the EOD #D1b.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 meanders to the 50s #W2.
    • TSI continues holding, above its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.

    Wrap:
    Bears get back lost ground as Index falls from channel bottom #D1a.
    Bulls come back from below to take support at 13 SMA (EOW) #W1.




    Looking forward into this Week:


    Patterns:

    • Stick Sandwich Pattern (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) active in the Medium Term screen #W1.
    • Bullish Engulfing on long term charts, failing to evolve into a 3 outside up (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) - would be a setback for Bulls, to be watched for until month end #M1.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • New EOD channel Top #D1b and the ATH, are resistances.
    • The 13 SMA on the EOW (1976) is the Support Bulls would want to defend again #W1.
    Moving Averages:
    • A slip to above the 5 EMA on the EOW(1991) is what Bears would want to avoid now #W1.
    Indicators:
    • STS diving to the over sold, works for the Bears #D2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls should look to defend the 13 SMA on the EOW and make new ATHs #D1b.
    Bears would try to deny the Bulls a  3 outside up on the Month Chart #M1. 

    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Bulls hold Peak 2 - Week 1 of October 2014.



    Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 26 Sept'14



    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bulls defend break-out from Peak 2 despite red week #W2.

    Gap between Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen same #W2.
    Gap between  Senoku Span A-B same #W3.


    Wrap: Bulls fall, but keep above Peak 1 #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Keeping above the Tenkan Sen - Bulls look for new Highs #W2.
    Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would continue to show direction going forward #W2.
    Previous High continues as strong support #W2.


    Wrap: Bulls push for a higher highs, Bears seek to get below previous Highs #W2.





    Sunday, September 28, 2014

    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Channel Support - Week 1 of October 2014.



    Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 26 Sept'14


    Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 26 Sept'14


    Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 26 Sept'14



    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


    Patterns:
    • Index continues to makes huge Waves as a result of previous High Wave candle pattern #W1.
    • Throwback of Price to old EOD channel's top #D3 - fails to take off - Index dives to bounce off Day Channel's Bottom #D1.
    • September candle closing above 7954 (August Close) sets up the possibility of a Evening Doji Star #M1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Bulls close below support at the 5 EMA, and bounce off the 13 SMA instead - EOW  #W1.
    • Bears send back the Bulls near the red channel top #D3.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD are Bearishly crossed #D1.
    Indicators:
    • MACD & Volume divergence to Price is huge #D2. 
    • TRD  #M1 faces resistance at the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace.

    Wrap:
    Bulls come up from below the October Wall (7912) to close the week near the September Wall (7965), Bears hold old channel highs #D3.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • High Wave candle (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) pattern's effect is on #W1.
    • Possibility of the Evening Doji Star (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) happening, after September candle forms, is to be watched for #D3.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index support that the bears look to crack, is the 13 SMA on the EOW (7836) #W1.
    • Index  faces resistance at the recent High (8161) #D3. 
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - the MA's are currently back to converging #D1.
    Indicators:
    • STS staying in the overbought, will work for the Bulls #W2.


    Wrap (edited):
    Bulls look to break the old channel top #D3 and stay above 8161 #D3.
    Bears seek a September Close above the August Close (for a Evening Star Possibility) and Index below the 5 EMA #W1.




    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Bounce - Week 1 of October 2014.



    BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 26 Sept'14




    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bulls again close above the Tenkan Sen after bouncing off previous High Zone #W2.
    Senkou Span A & B - gap higher #W3.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gets closer #W2


    Wrap: Index come up from below to close above the Tenkan Sen 
    #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    A Bearish Chikou Span cross with Price line, at current altitude, will need couple of months #W1.
    Bulls need to hold above the Tenkan Sen #W2.
    Senkou Span A & B - converging is good for Bears #W3.


    Wrap: Bears seek to again try getting t
    he index below the Tenkan Sen, Bull focus is to keep above previous Highs and attempt new ATH(All Time High) #W2.




    Monday, September 22, 2014

    S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Pullback to Channel - Week 4 of September 2014.



    S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 19 Sept'14


    S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 19 Sept'14


    S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Jan'14, onward - as on 19 Sept'14



    Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

    Patterns:
    • Long Term Bullish Engulfing becoming a 3 outside up, is an option by month end - see the last 3 Month candles #M1.
    • Pullback of Price to EOD channel bottom #D1 - happens as studied.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Bulls take support near the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1.
    • After a new ATH, bulls sent back from the EOD channel bottom #D1.
    Moving Averages:  
      • 5 EMA and 13 SMA, cross Bullishly on the EOD #D1.
      Indicators:
      • RSI 13 meanders in the 60s #W2.
      • TSI continues holding, above its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.

      Wrap:
      Bears lose ground as Index pulls up to channel bottom #D1.
      Bulls take off from support at 13 SMA (EOW) as studied and make a new ATH #W1.




      Looking forward into this Week:


      Patterns:

      • Pull back (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) of Price to EOD channel bottom #D1 - to be watched to assess Bull / Bear strength.
      • Bullish Engulfing on long term charts can evolve into a 3 outside up (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) - to be watched for until month end #M1.
      Support & Resistance: 
      • EOD channel Bottom #D1 and the ATH, are resistances.
      • The 13 SMA on the EOW (1976) is the Support Bulls would want to defend #W1.
      Moving Averages:
      • A slip below the 5 EMA on the EOW(1995) is what Bulls would want to avoid now #W1.
      Indicators:
      • STS holding in the over bought, works for the Bulls #D2.


      Wrap:
      Bulls should look to defend the 5 EMA on the EOW and make new ATHs #D1.
      Bears would try to complete the Pull back and continue with the fall #D1. 


      The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Bulls scale up Peak 2 - Week 4 of September 2014.


      Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 19 Sept'14




      Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



      Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

      Bulls rise above Peak 2 with a green week #W2.

      Gap between Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen same - both climb #W2.
      Gap between  Senoku Span A-B same - both climb #W3.


      Wrap: Bulls scale higher at Peak 2 #W2.




      Looking Forward into this Week:


      Keeping above the Tenkan Sen - Bulls look for new Highs #W2.
      Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would continue to show direction going forward #W2.
      Previous Highs are a strong support #W2.


      Wrap: Bulls push for a higher highs, Bears seek to get below previous Highs #W2.



      CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Throwback Touch 2 - Week 4 of September 2014.



      Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 19 Sept'14


      Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 19 Sept'14


      Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 19 Sept'14



      Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


      Patterns:
      • Index makes huge Waves last week as a result of previous High Wave candle pattern #W1.
      • Throwback of Price to old EOD channel's top #D3, sees Index coming back from below to again make an exact touch of the 'red' Channel Top line #D3.
      Support & Resistance:
      • Bulls shoot up from support at the 5 EMA, on the EOW on Tuesday last #D1, after bouncing off from near the September Wall (study) #D1
      • Bears fight back to hold the Bulls near the red channel top #D3.
      Moving Averages: 
      • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD meet #D1.
      Indicators:
      • MACD & Volume divergence to Price is huge #D2. 
      • TRD  #M1 faces resistance at the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace.

      Wrap:
      Bulls maneuver a sharp reversal from the September Wall, Bears hold old channel highs #D3.




      Looking Forward into this Week:


      Patterns:
      • High Wave candle (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) pattern's effect is on #W1.
      • Throwback (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) of Price to old 'EOD channel top' - to be studied #D3.
      Support & Resistance:
      • Index support that the bears look to crack, continues to be the 5 EMA on the EOW (8023) #W1.
      • Index  faces resistance at the ATH (8180) #D1. 
      Moving Averages: 
      • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - the MA's are currently back to converging #D1.
      • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD poised to cross Bullishly, if index closes above 8108 on Monday this week #D1. 
      Indicators:
      • STS slipping below the overbought, will work for the Bears #W1.


      Wrap:
      Bulls look to gain more altitude with current maneuver staying above 8108 #W1.
      Bears look to defend the old channel top #D3 and get back below the 5 EMA #W1.



      BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Bounce - Week 4 of September 2014.



      BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 19 Sept'14




      Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



      Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

      Bulls take support near the Tenkan Sen #W2.
      Senkou Span A & B - gap higher #W3.
      Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap also higher #W2


      Wrap: Bulls survive a fall with a bounce off the Tenkan Sen 
      #W2.




      Looking Forward into this Week:


      A Bearish Chikou Span cross with Price line, at current altitude, will need 3 odd months #W1.
      Bulls need to hold above the Tenkan Sen #W2.
      Senkou Span A & B - converging is good for Bears #W3.


      Wrap: Bears seek to again try getting t
      he index below the Tenkan Sen, Bull focus is to keep attempting new ATH(All Time Highs) #W2.



      Monday, September 15, 2014

      S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Channel Break - Week 3 of September 2014.


      S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 12 Sept'14


      S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 12 Sept'14


      S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Jan'14, onward - as on 12 Sept'14




      Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

      Patterns:
      • Long Term Bullish Engulfing becoming a 3 outside up, still an option by month end - see the last 3 Month candles #M1.
      • Evening Star again fails to evolve on the EOW #W1 - Bears still get a red week.
      Support & Resistance:
      • Bears crack the EOD channel's bottom line,  Pull back (study) of Price to EOD channel bottom line possible #D1.
      • 5 EMA and 13 SMA, cross Bearishly on the EOD #D1.
      Moving Averages:  
        • Bulls close the week exactly on the 5 EMA on the EOW (1986) #W1.
        Indicators:
        • RSI 13 meanders in the 60s #W2.
        • TSI continues holding, above its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.

        Wrap:
        Bears almost take the Short Term Screen, Bulls arrest fall at 5 EMA, on the Medium Term screen #W1.




        Looking forward into this Week:


        Patterns:

        • Pull back (study) of Price to EOD channel bottom #D1 - to be watched to assess Bull / Bear strength.
        • Bullish Engulfing on long term charts can evolve into a 3 outside up (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) - to be watched for until month end #M1.
        Support & Resistance: 
        • EOD channel Bottom #D1 and the ATH, are resistances.
        • The 13 SMA on the EOW (1972) is the Support Bulls would want to defend #D1.
        Moving Averages:
        • A Bullish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the EOD is what Bears would want to avoid now #D1.
        Indicators:
        • STS holding in the over bought, works for the Bulls #D2.


        Wrap:
        Bulls should look to defend the 13 SMA on the EOW and get back to the ATH #D1.
        Bears would try to complete the Pull back and continue with the fall #D1.