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Saturday, October 20, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 15 October to 19 October, 2012. - Bulls hold fort.




S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price)  (or) EOM Chart: 
S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - 19 October, 2012.
Above is the Month Chart - EOM - analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward




S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price) (or) EOW Chart:
S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - 19 October, 2012.
Above is the Week Chart - EOW -  analyzing Data from Q2-Q3 2012, onward.




 S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move)  (or) EOD Chart:
S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  19 October, 2012.
Above is the Day Chart - EOD -  analyzing Data from Oct'2012, onward.




Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)
Bulls avoid a Bearish Three Outside Down (studied last week) - by a slim margin (c).
Bulls continue to hold the Price above the 13 SMA on the Week Chart (c) - despite falling below the 5 EMA and slipping out of the channel again.
Bears move it below the 5 EMA, 13 SMA & MVWAP 34 on the Short term chart (e).
The bearish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA happens, as anticipated last week, on the EOD (e). 
Bears keep the RSI, below the oversold line (d).
Month candle remains red (a).





Looking forward into the next Week:
A bearish cross of the 5 EMA and the 13 SMA on the EOW is on the cards, for the coming week - unless the Bulls pull up the index back into the Week channel (c).
Taking it it above the 5 EMA on the EOD and EOW (c,e)- is critical for the Bulls.
Bears look to keep it below the MVWAP 34 on the EOD (d).
Position of the STS (b) indicator, shows Bull strength.
A Bearish Harami is in the making on the Long Term Charts (a) - unless the Bulls make the month's candle a green one.




CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 15 October to 19 October, 2012. - Bulls Hold on..



Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 19 October, 2012.
 Above is the Month Chart - EOM -  analyzing Data from 2008 onward.




Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 19 October, 2012.
 Above is the Week Chart - EOW -  analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward.




Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices  (or) EOD Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 19 October, 2012.
Above is the Day Chart - EOD - analyzing Data from July 2012, onward. 




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)
Bulls took support at the Blue Center line of the EOD Channel as anticipated (e).
A bearish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA (e) persists in a near Doji Week (c).
The Bearish Three Outside Down is kept at bay by the Bulls, in a - Last Day - Last Hour - squeak through to above the previous week's close (c).
The red Support-Resistance line gave support exactly as expected (d).
Bears fail again, at getting the Index below the 5 EMA on the Week Chart (c).
The short fuse indicator (b) remains turned down, indicating the effect of this month's candle, to-date.
STS in oversold (d) indicates Bull power.
Month candle remains red (a).




Looking Forward into the next Week:

A massive Pullback to the Monthly Channel's Green bottom line (a) - is the still the Bull agenda.
The 5 EMA on the EOD (e) looks ready to cross Bullishly above the 13 SMA.
Gap between the 50 SMA and 200 SMA on the EOD, continues decline.
Using the red support-resistance line on the on the STS (d), for a bounce back would be part of the Bull plan.
Getting the Index below the 5 EMA on the Week Chart (c) is critical for the Bears.
The Blue center line of the EOD channel (e) provides a place for the bulls to bounce back from.
The signal line's interaction with the MACD line (f) is worth a watch over the next week.




The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 15 October to 19 October, 2012. - Bulls Steady..



                               .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 
Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below

Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal (B)
The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)
The Kijun sen cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (K)
Tenkan Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Te)
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish  Signal (T)




DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud 
DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 19 October, 2012.



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)
Chikou Span (a) - remains close to the price line.
The Oscillator ticks down, -ve divergence is persistent (c).
Support for index continues on the Tenkan Sen (b) like last week.




Looking Forward into the next Week:
The Chikou Span heading for the Price line (a) needs to be watched - bearish cross or deflection is on the cards.
Bulls again hold the Index on the Tenkan Sen, for the week (b) - take off from here is critical, as cross of this red line, is seen as an early indicator of trend change.



BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 15 October to 19 October, 2012. - Bulls Hold it..



                         .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 

Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below:

The Tenkan Sen Cross:  Weak  Bullish   Signal (Te)
The Senoku Span Cross:  Neutral  Bullish  Signal (Ss)
The Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral  Bullish Signal (K)
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong  Bullish Signal (T) 
The Kumo Break-out: Bullish Signal (B)  
The Chikou Span Cross:  Strong   Bullish Signal (Cc)  



BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:
The BSE  Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 19 October, 2012.



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)
The Thinning Kumo keeps the Bulls at Bay.
The Chikou Span remains within striking distance of the Kumo (a).
Oscillator ticks up (c).




Looking forward into the next Week:
Bears look to reaching the Tenkan Sen (b) to start making an impact.
Staying above the Kumo - advantage is with the Bulls.
Chikou Span (a) reaching the Kumo is what we need to watch out for next.