Monday, February 23, 2015

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - ATH again - Week 4 of February 2015.















Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Index closed last month below the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1, this sub 5 EMA close occurred after about 3 years - see pink arrow #M3 - however History repeats, as Bulls come back with a green February (to date) #M1.
  • Bear hope on, for one more week, as Month Charts do have a 'Three Inside Down' - #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls break out to another ATH (All Time High), after being hemmed in, by the Day Channel Top for most of the week.
Moving Averages:  
    • The all important, 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the short term screen, remain Bullishly Crossed  #D1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 is above the 50s #W2.

    Wrap:
    Bears trigger a Long Term Three Inside Down last month #M1.
    Bulls learn from History and make new ATHs, with a long green candle for February, #M3 and #M1.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Bears produce a 'Three Inside Down' #M1 on the Long Term Screen (Study Links herehere or elsewhere).
    • A failed 'Three inside down', which we studied about three years ago (here and here) - was seen when the Index slipped below the 5 EMA, the last time (pink arrow #M3). Exact set-up was seen now - so that study was worth the effort #M1.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • MVWAP 34 on the EOW #W1 and the Weekly 5 EMA (2075), are supports the Bears want to get the Index, back to.
    • Current ATH and EOW Channel Top #W1, are levels, which Bulls would want to get above.
    Moving Averages:
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Medium Term Charts stay crossed bullishly as long as the index is above 2006 #W1.
    Indicators:
    • TSI, slipping below the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace, holds some cheer for the Bears #M2.


    Wrap:

    Bulls hope History would repeat itself in February, and another Bull run would emanate from the current set-up, #M1 and #M3.
    Bears pray, they can get back below the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1, by February end, to prevent the above.



    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Break - Week 4 of February 2015.








    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Index after the Yo Yo at the Tenkan Sen, makes a dash for the ATH, and clears it #W2.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, flat and gap steady #W2.
    Senoku Span A & B, gap steady #W3.


    Wrap: Index makes a new ATH  #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bear hope to journey back to the Kumo, when it thins, in a couple of weeks #W2.
    Bearish Cross of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, at current range, next on Bear Agenda #W2.
    Chikou Span Deflection off the Index, produces a new ATH for the Bulls #W2.


    Wrap: Bulls look to stay above the Tenkan Sen and make new ATHs, the Bears want to get back to the Kumo #W2. 





    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Dodgy Doji - Week 4 of February 2015.













    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)




    Patterns:
    • The Top of the Weekly Channel - which we had been waiting on from April 2014 (post) kept the Bulls down earlier in the month, Bulls come back with 2 green candles closing the week above 8809 #W1. 
    • 'Bullish Engulfing' on the Long Term Charts, can become a Three Outside Up, trigger level is at 8809 as studied in earlier weeks #M1.
    • Last week's candle was a Doji #W1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index keeps above the earlier resistance i.e. the January close, 8809, all week. Bulls also keep above the 5 EMA on the EOD #D1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD, are crossed Bullishly #D1.
    Indicators:
    • STS stays in the over bought #W2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls clear and keep above, the January close, 8809 #W1. 
    Bears back to defending the previous ATH (All Time High) and the Wall for February #W1.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • Channel Top resistance of the Medium Term Channel, important for Bears #W1.
    • 'Bullish Engulfing' on the Long Term Charts, becoming a Three Outside Up (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) to be watched for #M1.
    • Possible effect of the last Weekly candle - the Doji #W1 - worth a look (Study Links herehere or elsewhere
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index resistances that the Bulls would want to get above this week, are the Wall for February 8952 and the ATH 8997.
    • Support Levels that the Bears would seek get below, are 8809 and 8528 (13 SMA on the Weekly Charts).
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - these MA's are currently steady #D1.
    Indicators:
    • STS, staying above the overbought line, demonstrates the Bull domination of the Medium and Long Term Screens #W2.


    Wrap :
    Index staying below the Wall, Bears can still get back into the game for the month.
    Bulls look forward to a Three Outside Up confirming, with a February Close above 8809 #M1 and some new ATHs (All Time Highs) in the meanwhile.


    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Deflection again? - Week 4 of February 2015.







    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Index  builds on support even as Bears are not able to take it below the Tenkan Sen #W2.
    Senkou Span A & B - gap steady #W3.
    The gap between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, widens as in a deflection #W2


    Wrap: Index bounces of the Tenkan Sen - Gap between Tenkan Send and Kijun Sen, widens as in a deflection 
    #W2



    Looking Forward into this Week:


    A Bearish, Chikou Span cross with Price line, at current altitude, will need a few more months #W1.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, deflect bullishly again - study of previous deflections and behaviour of price, after the deflection, is important #W2.


    Wrap: Bulls look to get back to making All Time Highs (ATH), whereas Bears look at moving the index below the 'Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen' range 
    #W2.


    Monday, February 16, 2015

    S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - History Repeats its rewards - Week 3 of February 2015.















    Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


    Patterns:
    • Index closed last month below the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1, this sub 5 EMA close occurred after about 3 years - see pink arrow #M3 - however History repeats and rewards the alert Bull, as Bulls come back with a green February (to date) #M1.
    • Bear hope on, as Month Charts have a 'Three Inside Down' - #M1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Bulls close the index just above previous ATH (All Tiem High), after taking off from the MVWAP 34  on the weekly chart #W1.
    Moving Averages:  
      • The all important, 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the short term screen, is Bullishly Crossed  #D1.
      Indicators:
      • RSI 13 is above the 50s #W2.

      Wrap:
      Bears trigger a Long Term Three Inside Down last month #M1.
      Bulls learn from History and reach the ATH with a long green candle for February #M3.




      Looking forward into this Week:

      Patterns:
      • Bears produce a 'Three Inside Down' #M1 on the Long Term Screen (Study Links herehere or elsewhere).
      • A failed 'Three inside down', which we studied about three years ago (here and here) - was seen when the Index slipped below the 5 EMA, the last time (pink arrow #M3). Exact set-up seen now - so that is worth a study #M1.
      Support & Resistance: 
      • MVWAP 34 on the EOW #W1 and the Monthly 5 EMA (2013), are supports the Bears want to get the Index, back to.
      • Current ATH (2097) and EOD Channel Top #D1, are levels, which Bulls would want to get above.
      Moving Averages:
      • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Medium Term Charts stay crossed bullishly as long as the index is above 2040 #W1.
      Indicators:
      • TSI, slipping below the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace, cheers the Bears #M2.


      Wrap:
      Bulls hope History would repeat itself in February, and another Bull run would emanate from the current set-up #M1 and #M3.
      Bears seek get back below the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1 by February end, to prevent the above.


      The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Range - Week 3 of February 2015.







      Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



      Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

      Index after the Yo Yo at the Tenkan Sen, for 4 weeks, makes a dash for the ATH #W2.
      Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, flat and gap steady #W2.
      Senoku Span A & B, gap narrows #W3.


      Wrap: Index moves to near the ATH  #W2.




      Looking Forward into this Week:


      Bear journey back to the Kumo, hemmed by the Kijun Sen #W2.
      Bearish Cross of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, at current range, next on Bear Agenda #W2.
      Chikou Span Deflection off the Index, makes the Bears lose the advantage #W2.


      Wrap: Bulls look to stay above the Tenkan Sen and make new ATHs, the Bear's target life below the Kijun Sen Sen #W2. 
      Both look to break out of the current range.




      CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 3 Outside up 'Stop' - Week 3 of February 2015.












      Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)




      Patterns:
      • The Top of the Weekly Channel - which we had been waiting on from April 2014 (post) kept the Bulls down the previous week, Bulls come back with a green candle closing the week at 8806 #W1. 
      • 'Bullish Engulfing' on the Long Term Charts, becoming a Three Outside Up, trigger level is at 8809 as studied in earlier weeks #M1.
      Support & Resistance:
      • Bears use the January close, 8809 as resistance for last week. Bulls get support at the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1.
      Moving Averages: 
      • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD, poised to cross Bullishly if the first trading day of this week, closes above 8760  #D1.
      Indicators:
      • STS stays in the over bought #W2.


      Wrap:
      Bulls find support at the 13 SMA #W1, charge up, but fail to make it above Last month's close. 
      Bears again prevent a Three outside Up possibility for now, by keeping the index below 8809  #W1.




      Looking Forward into this Week:


      Patterns:
      • Channel Top resistance of the Medium Term Channel, important for Bears #W1.
      • 'Bullish Engulfing' on the Long Term Charts, becoming a Three Outside Up (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) to be watched for #M1.
      Support & Resistance:
      • Index resistances that the Bulls would want to get above this week, are the Wall for February 8952 and 8809.
      • Support Levels that the Bears would seek get below, are 8696 (5 EMA on the Weekly Charts) and 8507 (13 SMA on the Weekly Charts).
      Moving Averages: 
      • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - these MA's are currently converging #D1.
      Indicators:
      • STS, staying above the overbought line, demonstrates the Bull domination of the Medium and Long Term Screens #W2.


      Wrap :
      Staying strong below the Wall, Bears can still get back into the game for the month.
      Bulls look forward to a Three Outside Up triggering, with a February Close above 8809 #M1 and some new ATHs (All Time Highs) in the meanwhile.



      BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Support - Week 3 of February 2015.










      Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


      Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

      Index  finds support even as Bears are not able to take it below the Tenkan Sen #W2.
      Senkou Span A & B - gap steady #W3.
      The gap between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrows further #W2


      Wrap: Index bounces of the Tenkan Sen - Gap between Tenkan Send and Kijun Sen narrow 
      #W2



      Looking Forward into this Week:


      A Bearish, Chikou Span cross with Price line, at current altitude, will need a few more months #W1.
      Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen set to cross bearishly or deflect bullishly again #W2.


      Wrap: Bulls look to get back to making All Time Highs (ATH), whereas Bears look at moving the index below the 'Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen' range 
      #W2.