Saturday, January 31, 2015

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bullish Engulfing? - Week 5 of January 2015.












Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)



Patterns:
  • November and December 2014 candles on Month screen #M1, formed a 'Bearish Engulfing' which failed to make make it to a 'Three Outside Down' as of now #M1. 
  • Bulls pull index up to  a new ATH this month, engulfing the December 2014 candle as of now #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index closes above all the MAs that we track.
  • Bulls approaches the R2 on the month pivot #M1.
Moving Averages: 
  • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW, cross Bullishly #D1.
Indicators:
  • STS stays in the over bought #W2.


Wrap:
Bulls after keeping above our mark of 8283 early in the month, breakout to make new ATH - Bears are now defending the new ATH or R2 on the Month Pivot #M1.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • 'Bearish Engulfing' on the Monthly Charts becoming a 'Three Outside Down', is now as remote, as that of January closing below 8283 (Study Links here, here or elsewhere) #M1.
  • 'Bullish Engulfing' of January Candle over December 2014 (Study Links here, here or elsewhere)  is on,  if this month's candle closes above 8606 #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index resistances that the Bulls would want to get above this week, are the current ATH (8866) and R2 on the Monthly Pivot #M1
  • Support Levels that the Bears would love to get below, are 8606 and 8283.
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study here, here or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - these MA's are currently steady #D1.
Indicators:
  • STS, moving below the overbought, would pause the 3+ quarter long, Bull domination of the Medium and Long Term Screens #W2.


Wrap :
Staying above 8606, Bulls look to carry on into the next month with strength #M1.
Bears need to pick up the fight afresh, with a move below the 5 EMA on the EOD #D1.



BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen to Breakout - Week 5 of January 2015.







Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Index  after breaking out above the Tenkan Sen and moving above the previous high, strikes out a new ATH #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap steadies #W3.
The gap between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen steadies #W2


Wrap: Index breaks out, from the range, around the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen 
#W2



Looking Forward into this Week:


Senkou Span 'A & B' converging will be bad for the Bulls #W3.
A Bearish, Chikou Span cross with Price line, at current altitude, will need a few more months #W1.
Bears seek to get the Kijun Sen above the Tenkan Sen and take out the last Index low #W2.


Wrap: Bulls Seek new All Time Highs, whereas Bears look at moving the index below the 'Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen' range 
#W2.





Monday, January 26, 2015

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Long Term 3 Inside Down (just on) - Week 5 of January 2015.



















Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Bear hope up, after November and December Candles form Bearish Harami. Last three Monthly Candles now make a 'Three Inside Down' - for now - #M1.
  • Possibility of a Stick Sandwich Pattern on the EOW Charts #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bears close the index below our marks of 2062 or 2059 last week -  Bulls close the index above all the MAs that we track on the screens above.
Moving Averages:  
    • 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the medium term screen, edges into a mild Bearish Cross, as Index fails to make 2062 #W1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 in the 60s #W2.

    Wrap:
    Bears maintain hopes of a Long Term Three Inside Down by closing marginally below 2059 #D1.
    Bulls make it above all the MAs that we track.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Bearish Harami is now active on the Long Term Screen and could trigger a 'Three Inside Down' #M1 (Study Links here, here or elsewhere).
    • Stick Sandwich Pattern (Study Links here, here or elsewhere) could activate if, the current week, closes around the close, of the week before last week #W1.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • 13 SMA on the EOW (2051) #W1 and the Monthly 5 EMA (2023), are supports the Bulls look to keep above, this week.
    • 2065 and 2059 are resistance for the index, which Bears would want to stay below
    Moving Averages:
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Medium Term Charts stay crossed bearishly as long as the index is below 2065 #W1.
    Indicators:
    • TSI, staying above the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace , keeps the Bull Hope up #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls seek to deny the Bears a Long Term 'Three Inside Down' by reaching & staying above 2059 #M1.
    Bears look to get below the last low on the EOD, and crack the 200 SMA #D1.


    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Again - Week 5 of January 2015.






    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Index ranges in last week's space and closes the week just above the Tenkan Sen #W2.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen flat and gap steady #W2.
    Senoku Span A & B gap flat #W3.


    Wrap: Bulls close above the Tenkan Sen after a repeat dive towards the Kijun Sen #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bears aim for a journey back to the Kumo, with a close below the Tenkan Sen to start with #W2.
    Bearish Cross of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, at current range, next on Bear Agenda #W2.
    Chikou Span Cross/Deflection of the Index can show direction going forward #W2.


    Wrap: Bulls look to keep above the Tenkan Sen, the Bear's target life below the Tenkan Sen Sen #W2. Both look to break out of the current range.



    Monday, January 19, 2015

    S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Long Term 3 Inside Down (stays on) - Week 4 of January 2015.
















    Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


    Patterns:
    • Bear hope up  after November and December Candles form Bearish Harami. Last three Monthly Candles now make a 'Three Inside Down' - for now - #M1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Bears keep the index below the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 and MVWAP 34 on the EOD #D1, most of last week -  Bulls hold above the 34 MVWAP on the Medium Term Screen #W1 and 200 SMA on the EOD #D1.
    Moving Averages:  
      • 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the medium term screen good for a Bullish Deflection or Bearish Cross #W1.
      Indicators:
      • RSI 13 in the 60s #W2.

      Wrap:
      Bears maintain hopes of a Long Term Three Inside Down by closing below 2059 #D1.
      Bulls keep above the Short Term 200 SMA #D1.




      Looking forward into this Week:

      Patterns:
      • Broadening Top (Study Links here, here or elsewhere) seen on the Day Chart - follow up re-formed top - its bottom is near the Fibonacci 76.4% mark.
      • Bearish Harami is now active on the Long Term Screen and could trigger a 'Three Inside Down' #M1 (Study Links here, here or elsewhere).
      Support & Resistance: 
      • 13 SMA on the EOW (2048) #W1 and the Monthly 5 EMA (2023), are resistances the Bulls look to get above, this week.
      • MVWAP 34 on the EOW #W1 and 200 SMA on the EOD #D1, are supports for the index, which Bears would want to break below
      Moving Averages:
      • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Medium Term Charts stay crossed bearishly below as long as the index is below 2062 #W1.
      Indicators:
      • TSI, slipping below the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace by month end, gets Bull Hope down #M2.


      Wrap:
      Bulls seek to deny the Bears a Long Term 'Three Inside Down' by reaching & staying above 2059 #M1.
      Bears look to get below last low on the EOD and crack the 200 SMA #D1.





      The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Falls - Week 4 of January 2015.






      Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



      Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

      Index retests last week's low and closes the week just below the Tenkan Sen #W2.
      Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen flat and gap steady #W2.
      Senoku Span A & B gap flat #W3.


      Wrap: Bulls fail to close above the Tenkan Sen after a repeat deep dive to near the Kijun Sen #W2.




      Looking Forward into this Week:


      Bears aim for a journey back to the Kumo, with a close below the Kijun Sen next #W2.
      Bearish Cross of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, at current range, next on Bear Agenda #W2.
      Chikou Span Cross/Deflection of the Index can show direction going forward #W2.


      Wrap: Bulls look to get back above the Tenkan Sen, the Bear's next target the Kjun Sen #W2.




      CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 3 Outside Down stays unDone - Week 4 of January 2015.















      Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)




      Patterns:
      • November and December 2014 candles on Month screen #M1, formed a 'Bearish Engulfing' with a month close at 8283 #M1. Index closed previous week at 8285.
      • Last week Bulls pull index up to 8514, dampening the Bear hopes for a Three Outside down by month end #M1.
      Support & Resistance:
      • Index closes above all the MAs that we track.
      • Bulls peek above the Day Channel's blue mid-line #D1.
      Moving Averages: 
      • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW, poised again for deflection or cross #D1.
      Indicators:
      • MACD and its MA break above the zero line  #D2.
      • STS stays in the over bought #W2.


      Wrap:
      Bulls after keeping above our mark of 8283 the previous week, breakout to control all three screens - Bears lose the advantage and are left defending the ATH or R1 on the Month Pivot #M1.




      Looking Forward into this Week:


      Patterns:
      • 'Bearish Engulfing' on the Monthly Charts becomes a 'Three Outside Down', if January Closes below 8283 (Study Links here, here or elsewhere) #M1.
      Support & Resistance:
      • Index resistances that the Bulls would want to get above this week, are the previous ATH (8627) and R1 on the Monthly Pivot #M1
      • Support Levels that the Bears would love to get below, are 8368 and the Wall for January (8174)
      Moving Averages: 
      • Golden Cross (study here, here or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - these MA's are currently steady #D1.
      • Bullish Deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the EOW will continue, if index closes the week above 8368 #W1.
      Indicators:
      • STS, moving below the overbought, would pause the 3+ quarter long Bull domination of the Medium and Long Term Screens #W2.


      Wrap :
      Staying well above 8283, Bulls intend to deny the Bears the advantage, or a Long Term 'Three Outside Down' #M1.
      Bears see some action begin below 8368, with a shot at getting below the October'14, low on the EOD #D1.


      BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Holds - Week 4 of January 2015.








      Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


      Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

      Index  after breaking out above the Tenkan Sen, moves above the previous high #W2.
      Senkou Span A & B - gap increases #W3.
      The gap between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen redices #W2


      Wrap: Index edges up, out of the current range around the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen
      #W2



      Looking Forward into this Week:


      Senkou Span 'A & B' converging will be bad for the Bulls #W3.
      A Bearish, Chikou Span cross with Price line, at current altitude, will need a few more weeks #W1.
      Bears seek to get the Kijun Sen above the Tenkan Sen and take out the last Index low #W2.


      Wrap: Bulls Seek life above the last All Time High, whereas Bears look at moving the index below the current 'Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen' range
      #W2.