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Monday, January 19, 2015

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 3 Outside Down stays unDone - Week 4 of January 2015.















Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)




Patterns:
  • November and December 2014 candles on Month screen #M1, formed a 'Bearish Engulfing' with a month close at 8283 #M1. Index closed previous week at 8285.
  • Last week Bulls pull index up to 8514, dampening the Bear hopes for a Three Outside down by month end #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index closes above all the MAs that we track.
  • Bulls peek above the Day Channel's blue mid-line #D1.
Moving Averages: 
  • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW, poised again for deflection or cross #D1.
Indicators:
  • MACD and its MA break above the zero line  #D2.
  • STS stays in the over bought #W2.


Wrap:
Bulls after keeping above our mark of 8283 the previous week, breakout to control all three screens Bears lose the advantage and are left defending the ATH or R1 on the Month Pivot #M1.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • 'Bearish Engulfing' on the Monthly Charts becomes a 'Three Outside Down', if January Closes below 8283 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index resistances that the Bulls would want to get above this week, are the previous ATH (8627) and R1 on the Monthly Pivot #M1
  • Support Levels that the Bears would love to get below, are 8368 and the Wall for January (8174)
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - these MA's are currently steady #D1.
  • Bullish Deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the EOW will continue, if index closes the week above 8368 #W1.
Indicators:
  • STS, moving below the overbought, would pause the 3+ quarter long Bull domination of the Medium and Long Term Screens #W2.


Wrap :
Staying well above 8283, Bulls intend to deny the Bears the advantage, or a Long Term 'Three Outside Down' #M1.
Bears see some action begin below 8368, with a shot at getting below the October'14, low on the EOD #D1.