TO READ THIS WEEK's POST CLICK HERE...

Monday, August 31, 2015

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Pin Bar - Week 1 of September 2015.















Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • The 'Closing Black Marubozu' of the previous week produces deep dive and  a come back, resulting in a pin bar candle for last week #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Support was at the MVWAP 34 as marked on the Month Screen #M1 and exactly as studied in the previous post. Resistance for the Bears (at week close) was around the previous low, marked by the mid-line of the Day Channel #D1.
Moving Averages:  
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the month screen, shows a bullish cross with one day to go, for month close #M1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13, after meandering in the middle of the range for a year #W2, finally goes oversold and now points up.  

    Wrap:
    Bears continue their dive from the previous week, run into our mark, the MVWAP34 on the EOM, and then return the index to the previous low #D1.
    Bull action produces a pin-bar for the week #W1.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Pin-bar candle on the Medium Term Charts is active (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #W1.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • MVWAP 34 on the long term screen (once again) is the support that Bulls want to stay above #M1 . Index has resistance at the daily 200 SMA  #D1. 
    • We have a new and less steep, Month Channel (blue) #M1.
    Moving Averages:
    • On the EOM, the 5 EMA and the 13 SMA, will maintain a Bullish Cross, if August 2015, closes above 1978 #W1,
    Indicators:
    • TSI is near the 50% retrace #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls look to use the pin-bar to catapult their way back above the daily 200 SMA.
    Bears look to force their way below the monthly MVWAP34 #M1.


    Europe CAC 40 - Ichimoku Study - Kumo Bounce - Week 1 of September 2015.





    Learning from the Earlier Study: 
    (click here for the previous post)


    After the Bearish Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen Cross, Bears dive below the Kumo, and close just above it #W2.

    Chikou Span, remains below the Price line #W1.
    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B, minuscule #W3.
    Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrows sharply #W3.

    Wrap: 

    Bulls after making it halfway to the Kumo last week, have another sharp fall and do well to close above the Kumo #W2. 

    Bears again finally take advantage of the Bearish Cross of the Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen #W2, with a massive fall, but fail to conquer the Kumo on closing basis.




    Looking Forward into this Week:



    Chikou Span is crossed  below the Price line (Its called a 'Weak Bearish cross because it occurred when the index was Bullish i,e above the Kumo) #W1.
    Index coming back to close above the Kumo, gives the Bulls some vigour #W2.

    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B around the last Price point is narrow and is getting narrow at W3. This means a thin Kumo - and a weak support for the Bulls for now #W3.
    The narrow gap between the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen, good for Bulls, as a re-cross is easier #W2.


    Wrap:

    Despite the Price bounce off the Kumo, Bears can use the advantage of the recent red on the screen #W1, #W2, to attempt a retake of the Kumo.
    Bulls see the Kumo as the major support from where they can aim for the Tenkan Sen #W2.





    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Neckline Tussle -Week 1 of September 2015.












    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

     

    Patterns:
    • The Head & Shoulder formation, that we studied for the last few weeks, completes. Index dives below the neckline and closes below the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace drawn on the EOW Screen. 
    • Weekly candle resembles a Pin-bar #W1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • The Index takes support well above the 76.4% Fibo retrace shown on the EOM screen.  The mid-line of the Month Channel #M1, remained as resistance last week.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA, are crossed bearishly, on all three Screens as of last week's close.
    Indicators:
    • On the Month chart, TRD slips below the 50% mark #M2.

    Wrap:

    Bears dive hard to below the neckline of the bearish H&S pattern we were studying, and get control of all three screens mid-week.
    Bulls come back, to regain control of the short term screen and close above the daily 5 EMA #D1.





    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • Bearish H&S pattern succeeding #W1,  is still a possibility (Study Links herehere or elsewhere), control of the 76.4% Fibo retrace (8040), drawn on the EOW screen, is critical this week #W1.
    • Studying the Pin-bar on the weekly charts is important (Study Links herehere or elsewhere).
    Support & Resistance:
    • Bulls have support at the 76.4% Fibo retrace shown on the EOM #M1, Resistance is at the blue Mid-line of the Weekly Channel #W1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The Death Cross (50 and 200 SMA) is active and thriving #D1.
    • The critical 5 EMA & 13 SMA, on the Week Screen would cross bullishly if the index closes above 8575 this week #W1.
    Indicators:
    • The STS staying crossed below its MA, and reaching the oversold is good for Bears #W2.


    Wrap :
    Bulls, look to the pin-bar, to get them going towards 8575 #M1.
    Bears despite the pause in momentum, aim to stay below 8040 and drive towards the green bottom line of the Weekly Chart (7333) #W1. 



    China SSEC - Ichimoku Study - Kumo Rescue - Week 1 of September 2015.




    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: 
    (click here for the previous post)

    Bulls get a rescue bounce, at the Kumo #W1.
    Chikou Span gets below the Price line #W1.
    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B narrows further #W3.


    Wrap: After the 
    Bearish cross of the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen #W2, previously, Index sees a bearish Chikou Span cross #W1.
    Bulls find support at the Kumo #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bearish Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen Cross (its called a 'weak bearish signal' as it occurred when the index was Bullish i,e. above the Kumo) works well for the Bears #W2.
    Bears now need to get the Price line back in the Kumo, to keep dominance of this screen #W1. 
    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B, around the next few week's candles and at #W3, is relatively narrow - making a thin Kumo and a fragile support for the Bulls.


    Wrap:

    Closing the week with a Bearish cross into the Kumo #W1, plus an even lower low, is what the Bears hope to do.
    Getting back above the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen #W2, with a re-cross by the Chikou Span, above the Price line #W1, is the priority for Bulls.