Sunday, June 10, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 04 June to 08 June 01 2012 - Bulls bounce off Channel bottoms..

Learning from Last Week:
We identified and studied the confluence of channel bottom resistance on the EOD - which the Bulls used to stage a comeback (click).
The close of May, above the 1300 mark, suggested strength for the Bulls.
Reclaiming the Channel middle ground - where do the Bulls go now?

S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price move)  (or) EOM Chart:
S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - 08 June, 2012. 

Bulls removed the Bear's toe from inside this screen - moving the close above the Blue middle line.
Resistance is at the 5 EMA - life would be good for bulls above this level.
STS (above 80) told us last week that the Bulls were in a good place.

S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price move) (or) EOW Chart:  
S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - 08 June, 2012.

Bears gave up ownership of this screen with last week's bounce.
The touchdown to channel bottom looks perfect.
With a close above the 5 EMA, Bulls have a perfect take off point.

S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move)  (or) EOD Chart:  
S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  08 June, 2012.

'a' shows us the exact point where we identified the confluence of support last week.
'b' tells us that the index staying above the EOD middle line - would mean that the MVWAP 34 is targeted next.
All short term MAs that we track are crossed and look like crossing each other bullishly soon.
The MACD Histogram is ticking up nicely.

Looking froward into the next week:
The battle for the Middle ground, does not look like its over.
The scale tipping can be gauged, by the  break of the 5 EMA on the EOW or the EOD channel middle.
Bulls would look at taking the MVWAP 34 on the EOD early next week.
Intra-week updates shall be up, to analyze that.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 04 June to 08 June, 2012 - Bulls stampede to Channel top!

Learning from the Past weeks:
We called the end of Bear Times and start of consolidation 4 weeks ago (click).
We reiterated that the Nifty was consolidating couple of times after that (click) and (click).
The Nifty bounced of the extremes of our defined range - fairly accurately.
Then last week we suggested that a forceful move above the 34 EMA, would signal a Bullish breakout (click).
The Nifty spend the last two day above the 34 EMA, with the Bulls in charge of the Short Term.
Where are we now and where are we going to next?

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:  
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 08 June, 2012. 

The Month candle changed color in one week.
The CCI indicator shows the trend of the month.
The confluence of the 5 EMA and 34 EMA is the current resistance.
Bulls need to break this resistance, to get back the advantage.

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:   
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 08 June, 2012.

The STS Support Resistance line (red), accurately told us that the reversal was on..
Support for Bulls was at the 200 SMA - as suggested last week.
The Bearish Engulfing of last week was negated.
We now have a 'Bullish Engulfing' and its possible successor is the 'Three Outside up' to study.

Bullish Engulfing:
Three Outside Up:

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action  (or) EOD Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 08 June, 2012.

Along with the 200 DMA on the EOW, the Fibonacci 61.8% on EOD, was suggested as Support for Bulls - in the last study.
Taking off from this Level, the Bulls cracked the 34 EMA and the 200 SMA to touch the 50 SMA.
The volume for this breakout, does not show the force one expected, as seen in the bars above.
The gap between the 200 SMA and 50 SMA, that we saw falling from 80 to 40 last week, is now lower at 20 points.
Channel top (red line) is achieved.

Looking forward into the next week:
Avoiding a bearish cross of the 50 and 200 SMA, would require the Nifty to keep moving up with the current rate of climb - tough ask.
The Bullish pattern on the EOW and the channel resistance on the EOD are what would define the action for the opposing camps next week.

Bulls are the flavor currently.
Intra-week updates shall be up.