TO READ THIS WEEK's POST CLICK HERE...

Saturday, September 1, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 27 August to 31 August, 2012 - Beat by the Last High !




S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price move)  (or) EOM Chart:  
S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - 31 Aug, 2012
 Above is the Month Chart - EOM - analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward. 





S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price move) (or) EOW Chart:
S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - 31 Aug, 2012.
Above is the Week Chart - EOW -  analyzing Data from Q2-Q3 2012, onward.





S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move)  (or) EOD Chart:   
S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  31 August, 2012.
Above is the Day Chart - EOD -  analyzing Data from Aug' 2012, onward.





Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)
A Bearish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA (E) happens and a Bearish Three Inside down followed, as anticipated in our study (C). 
Bulls kept it above the MVWAP 34, on all three screens.
The 'Three Inside Up' (1) Keeps the Bulls Green, this month. 
The last High (made earlier this year) as a resistance, held back the Bulls.
Oversold position of the STS (B) and RSI (D) indicate the strength of the Bulls.
Bullish Harami on the EOD (E) - looks good for the Bulls.



Looking forward into the next Week:
Bears need to move the indicators at (B) and (D) below 'oversold' to make an impact.
Bulls need to break the last High made earlier this year to get moving.
Staying above the 1400 level, i.e. (5 EMA - weekly) - Bulls look at a bounce back, towards the last high.
The effects of the Bearish Three inside down (C) and the Bullish Three outside up (A) are still on, in opposite directions.
A possible Bullish 'Three Outside up' above last week's close (E) - threfore should give the Bulls some cheer. 




CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 27 Aug to 31 August, 2012 - Fibonacci Held





Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart: 
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 31 Aug, 2012
Above is the Month Chart - EOM -  analyzing Data from 2008 onward. 





Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 31 Aug, 2012.
 Above is the Week Chart - EOW -  analyzing Data from 2010 onward.  





Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices  (or) EOD Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 31 Aug, 2012.
Above is the Day Chart - EOD - analyzing Data from May 2012, onward. 





Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)
The Bulls continued to fail at the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement (C) of the Nifty's all time high and last major low (2008). 
Bears got the recharge we studied, after falling below the MVWAP 34 (monthly), which we pegged at 5315.
5315 is our Wall for September.
Bulls slip back into the EOW channel (C), the STS resistance (D) holds.
Negative Divergence on the MACD (F), did the job for the bears.
The last two month candles failed to form a 'Bullish Engulfing Pattern', as viewed last until last week (A).
Bearish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA (E) happened - support was near the 13 SMA (C).




Looking Forward into the next Week:
The support at STS (D) helps the Bulls.
Staying above last week's close  - Bulls can look at a bounce back, early next week.
Index moving back above the EOW channel top (C), keeps the Long term Bear on hold.
The 34 EMA (C) on the Week Chart is the next stop for Bears.
The 13 SMA on the EOW (C) is the point of contention to watch, failure here, sours the week's action for the Bulls.





The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 27 August to 31 August, 2012 - New High Blues





                               .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 
Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as marked on chart below:

Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal (B)
The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)
The Kijun sen cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (K)
Tenkan Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Te)
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish  Signal (T)





DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud: 
DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 31 August, 2012 




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)
The strong resistance we saw in the previous high - foiled the Bulls last week too.
The Oscillator ticks down.
Chikou Span (A) heads closer, for a possible bearish cross of the Price line.
Support last week, was close to the Tenkan Sen (B).




Looking Forward into the next Week:
The negative divergence, developing on the Oscillator - remains the key concern, for the Bulls.
Avoiding a Bearish Chikou Span cross - is critical for Bulls going forward.
Staying above the Tenkan Sen (B) - Bulls would try for the last high again.
Bears would see current momentum, taking them to the MVWAP 34.
One watches the Chikou Span (A), for direction early next week.
               



BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 27 August to 31 August, 2012 - Flat Kumo & Gravity !




                          .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 

Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as shown on chart below:

The Tenkan Sen Cross:  Weak  Bullish   Signal (Te)
The Chikou Span Cross:  Neutral  Bearish Signal (Cc)
The Senoku Span Cross:  Neutral  Bullish  Signal (Ss)
The Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral  Bullish Signal (K)
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong  Bullish Signal (T) 
The Kumo Break-in:    Bearish Signal (B)



BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:
The BSE  Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 31 Aug, 2012.




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)
Index moved to Neutral zone - into the Kumo (cloud).
Bears used the flat Kumo's gravity, pulling the index down, damping the breakout momentum -  with the Bearish Kumo Break -in (B)
The Chikou Span (pink line) did not cross the Price line, instead it deflected as seen in 'A'.
Price took support at the Tenkan Sen 'B'




Looking forward into the next Week:
A Bullish Chikou Cross can still give the bulls, a bounce back, out of the Kumo. 
Staying above the Tenkan Sen - Bulls look at making it out of the Kumo. 
Bears see the MVWAP 34 as the next target.
One looks out for the Bullish Chikou Cross, happening early next week.