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Saturday, August 25, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 20 August to 24 August, 2012 - Beat by the Last High ?!




S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price move)  (or) EOM Chart:  
S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - 24 Aug, 2012
Above is the Month Chart - EOM - analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward. 





S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price move) (or) EOW Chart: 
S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - 24 Aug, 2012.
Above is the Week Chart - EOW -  analyzing Data from Q3 2011, onward.





S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move)  (or) EOD Chart:   
S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  24 August, 2012.
Above is the Day Chart - EOD -  analyzing Data from Q2 2012, onward.





Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)
Bears deny a Lucky 'seven green candles in a row' to the Bulls (3). 
The Negative divergences seen on the EOD (6) and EOW (4) were read correctly by us, as harbingers of a downturn.
Bulls kept it above the MVWAP 34, on all three screens.
A Bearish Harami (3) is formed on the Weekly Chart, with last weeks candle.
The 'Three Inside Up' (1) Keeps the Bulls Green, this month.
The last High (made earlier this year) as a resistance, held back the Bulls.



Looking forward into the next Week:
RSI reading on the EOW (4), shows divergence and the MA3 and the RSI 9 remain bearishly crossed, however, above the 70 mark, Bulls remain on top.
Bears need to break their nemesis of many weeks, the MVWAP 34 - after moving below the 5 EMA on the EOW.
Bears look to break below the middle line of the Day Channel. 
Bulls seek to break above the middle line of the Week Channel.
A Bearish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA (5) and a Bearish Three Inside down are possible below last week's close (3).
STS position and cross (2) indicates the current long term strength of the Bulls.








CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 20 Aug to 24 August, 2012 - Fibonacci Hold




Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart: 
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 24 Aug, 2012
Above is the Month Chart - EOM -  analyzing Data from 2008 onward.  





Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 24 Aug, 2012.
 Above is the Week Chart - EOW -  analyzing Data from 2010 onward.  





Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices  (or) EOD Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 24 Aug, 2012.
Above is the Day Chart - EOD - analyzing Data from May 2012, onward. 





Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)
The Bulls continue to fail at the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement (3) of the Nifty's all time high and last major low (2008) - now shown on the EOW.
Bulls had stayed above the 5 EMA & 34 EMA on the EOM (1), EOW (3) & EOD (5) - for most of the week - however it slipped below the 5 EMA on the Day Chart (5) on Friday.
Bulls crack the EOW channel top (3) and STS (4) resistance, last week.
Negative Divergence on the MACD (6), is visible. 
The month at present looks like its forming a 'Bullish Engulfing Pattern' (1).





Looking Forward into the next Week:
The Fibonacci 76.4% (5),  is the next Resistance for the Bulls.
The negative divergence (6) helps the bears.
Falling to below the MVWAP 34 (Monthly), approx 5315 would recharge the Bears.
Bearish cross or Bullish deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA (5) is on the cards.
Closing above the Fibonacci 76.4% for the Month would give long term Bulls their cake.
Keeping above the EOW channel top, keeps the Long term Bear on hold.




The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 20 August to 24 August, 2012 - New Highs !?




                               .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 
Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as marked on chart below:

Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal (B)
The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)
The Kijun sen cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (K)
Tenkan Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Te)
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish  Signal (T)




DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud: 
DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 20 August, 2012 




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)
Unlucky at the seventh weekly candle - Bulls see red after 6 green candles in a row.
The Bears hold the Bulls away from beating the previous high - which we continue to see as a strong resistance.
The Oscillator continues to tick up.
Chikou Span (pink line) heads for a possible bearish cross of the Price line.




Looking Forward into the next Week:
The negative divergence, developing on the Oscillator - remains a concern, for the Bulls.
Keeping above the Tenkan Sen - Bulls, next look at, taking out the previous high - a strong resistance.
Avoiding a Bearish Chikou Span cross - is critical for Bulls going forward.





BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 20 August to 24 August, 2012 - Free of the Kumo !





                          .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 

Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as shown on chart below:

The Tenkan Sen Cross:  Weak  Bullish   Signal (Te)
The Chikou Span Cross:  Neutral  Bearish Signal (Cc)
The Senoku Span Cross:  Neutral  Bullish  Signal (Ss)
The Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral  Bullish Signal (K)
The Kumo Break-out:   Bullish Signal (B)
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong  Bullish Signal (T) 





BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:
The BSE  Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 24 Aug, 2012.





Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)
Index remained with Bulls - above Kumo (cloud).
The Strong Bullish Tenkan Sen (red) - Kijun Sen (blue) cross (T) keeps this week's candle green despite global bearishness.
The Chikou Span (pink line) is at the price line for a possible cross next week.





Looking forward into the next Week:
A Bullish Chikou Cross gives the bulls further momentum. 
Bears look at the flat Kumo's gravity, pulling the index down, damping the breakout momentum. 
Staying free of the Kumo - Bulls hope for a breakout move, to beyond previous highs.