TO READ THIS WEEK's POST CLICK HERE...

Monday, May 5, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls shy near ATH - Week 2 of May 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 02 May'14


S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 02 May'14


S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Dec'13, onward - as on 02 May'14






Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • Bulls near ATH again after four weeks of Marubozus and Shooting Stars #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index faces resistance at the ATH even as the 13 SMA #W1, provides exact support.
Moving Averages:  
  • Bullish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA #D1 on the short term screen helps the bulls another week. 
Indicators:
  • RSI 13, inches towards the overbought #W2.
  • TSI continues holding above its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.


Wrap:
Bulls dominate all 3 screens - Bears defend the current ATH.




Looking forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • Previous week's 'Shooting Star' (Study link herehere or elsewherecandle is active  #W1. 
  • The Continuation Pattern i.e Opening White Marubozu is also active (Study link herehere or elsewhere)
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls see support at the 13 SMA (1856) #W1, while the Week Channel Top #W1 remains resistance.
Moving Averages:
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW #W1 would cross bearishly at a Index reading below 1835 for this week too.
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4, straying back into the over-bought zone, works for the Bulls #D2. 


Wrap:
Bulls watch for another ATH possibility - Bear future lies below the 13 SMA on the Weekly charts #W1. 


The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Hold again - Week 2 of May 2014.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 02 May'14





Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bull - Bear stand-off  continues around the ATH #W2.

Price Line bounces off the Tenkan Sen intra-week once again #W2.
At present height, the Chikou span seen running bearishly into the Price Line #W1.


Wrap: Index takes support at Tenkan Sen - broad ranging continues all 2014  #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Keeping above the Tenkan Sen - Bulls have hopes of a new ATH #W2.Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would show direction going forward before Price line gets too close to the Kumo $W2.
Bulls wary of the Chikou span bearishly crossing the Price line #W1.


Wrap: Bulls look to break above this range #W2, Bears hope to get below the Tenkan Sen after 2 aborted attempts #W2.




CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bears position an Evening Star - Week 2 of May 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 02 May'14


Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 02 May'14


Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 02 May'14




Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Tenuous Three outside up #W1 studied last week fails. 
  • Evening star on the Monthly charts in position to form #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • The 5 EMA on the medium term charts #W1 cracked by Bears. 
Moving Averages:
  • Index sees the short term 5 EMA and 13 SMA cross Bearishly  last week #D1. 
Indicators:
  • STS near its Support line #W2. 
  • TRD hanging around the 61.8% retrace drawn #M2.


Wrap:
'Short term' honors neutral - Bears get evening star possibility #M1.




Looking Forward into this Week:

 

Patterns:
  • Bears trigger an Evening Star formation, if May candle closes below the range 6704-6712 #M1 (Study link herehere or elsewhere)  
Support & Resistance:
  • The support, currently for Bulls, is the Weekly 13 SMA i.e. 6535.
  • Last ATH is now resistance for the Bulls #D1. 
Moving Averages: 
  • Bearish Cross of the 5 EMa and 13 SMA on the Weekly Charts happens below 6474 #W1.
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on and steady, even as index is clear above these SMAs #D1.
Indicators:
  • TRD Indicator staying below the 61.8% retrace boosts bears #M2.
  • STS staying above its support line and in the overbought good for Bulls #W2.


Wrap:
Bears see Evening Star formation below 6704-6712 #M1Bulls look to keep above support line on the STS #W2.





BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bulls Consolidate - Week 2 of May 2014.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 02 May'14




Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bears take the index towards the Tenkan Sen #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap widens #W3.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap also widens despite the fall #W2



Wrap: Bulls after pausing near ATHs for 2 weeks, take a hit
 #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Chikou Span, keeping current altitude, will avoid the price-line, for a few months #W1.
Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, gave the bulls gains earlier #W2.
Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen gap can continue to widen, even if the Sensex fluctuates 300-500 odd points over the next few weeks #W2. 



Wrap: Bears keen to get the index below the 
Tenkan sen - Bulls want movement towards the ATH post consolidation #W2.