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Sunday, June 30, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 24 June to 28 June: 2013 - Bulls Pullback




S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 28 June'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 28 June'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 28 June'13





Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)



Patterns:
  • Three inside down on the Weekly chart #W1 - studied earlier - takes a break even as the Bulls make some green.
  • Bearish Harami on the Long Term Charts  #M1.

Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls bring up the index to the channel bottom #D1 - and get stopped in their pull back attempt.

Moving Averages:
  • 5 EMA touching the 13 SMA on the Medium term charts #W1  & the Day Screen #D1.
  • June closes above the 5 EMA  #M1.
  • Bulls miss a close above the 13 SMA on the Week Charts #W1 - by a whisker.

Indicators:
  • RSI and its MA remain below oversold #W2.
  • Oscillator stays below the 50 mark #D2.



Bulls 'Pull back' to our identified resistance - Day Channel's Bottom Green Line #D1..and stop..






Looking forward into the next Week:


Patterns:

Support & Resistance:
  • Day channel's, bottom green line #D1 remains the resistance for the Bulls.
  • The 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace - remaining around the last consolidation cluster #M1, is good for Bears.

Moving Averages:
  • Closing above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
  • 5 EMA & 13 SMA  #W1  - Deflection is good for Bulls and Cross helps Bear Cause.
  • 5 EMA & 13 SMA  #D1  - Deflection is good for Bears and Cross helps Bull Cause.

Indicators:
  • Oscillator staying sub 50 despite the up move is good for bears #D2.




Bears eye the potential 3 inside down #M1, Bulls call for a deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA #W1.



CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 24 June to 28 June: 2013 - Bulls find support




Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 28 June'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 28 June'13




Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Nov' 2012, onward - as on 28 June'13




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)


Patterns:

Support & Resistance:
  • Day Channel perfectly catches the Bears and sends the Bulls to the channel top #5.
  • The 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' was support zone #5.
  • Week Channel's Middle Blue line was resistance last week #3.

Moving Averages:
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA touch #5.
  • 200 SMA on the Day Charts retaken by Bulls #5.
  • 13 SMA on the Medium Term - was also resistance last week #3.

Indicators:
  • We use the 'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 on the long term charts from now..
  • Volumes are High for the up move #6.
  • MACD and its MA converge #6.



Bulls find the support to flip the Nifty from Day channel bottom to channel top #5 in a couple of days..





Looking Forward into the next Week:


Patterns:

Support & Resistance:
  • Day Channel top is now resistance to beat for the Bulls #5.
  • The 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' is support zone for Bears #5.

Moving Averages:
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA touch for a Bullish Cross or Bearish Deflection #5.
  • Keeping above the 200 SMA on the Day Charts good for Bulls #5.
  • 13 SMA on the Medium Term - is resistance #3.
  • 50 SMA and 200 SMA, convergence towards a death cross to be watched #5.

Indicators:
  • 'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 is in Bull zone for June..
  • Volumes remaining High for the up move, good for Bulls #6.
  • MACD and its MA poised for a Cross or Deflection from the '-50' zone #6.


Bears now eye the combined effect of the Shooting Star and Hanging Man  #1 - Bulls look forward to the potential Three Outside Up #3