Monday, February 27, 2012

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 27 02 2012 - Seriously now!

Nifty - End of Day - 27 Feb  2012
We ended last weekend's post (located here) with the words "Bears while strong in the current 'short' term, need to go and stay below the Fibonacci  76.4% (EOD) to be taken seriously" Guess the Bears took that to heart ... crashing through the Fib76x (5414) in the first hour, they stopped just short of our red arrow mark on the 34 EMA - a fall of 150+ points. 
The bearish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA which was discussed as imminent, also has happened. Notice the Volume bar for the day. The 34 EMA and 200 DMA are good supports, for a bounce back by the Bulls. Now however, we take the Bears seriously :)

Sunday, February 26, 2012

CNX Nifty - Triple Screen Technical Analysis - End of Week: 24 Feb 2012 - Consolidation Times..

Recap: We saw the Dual Channel tops - Day and Week channels - as a possible reason for consolidation, in last week's 'Looking Forward & EOD' (post here). The correction started at channel top (post here). The Fib 76x was seen as support for throwback - and so it was (post here). We started analyzing the SP500 with all three screens (post here).

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 24 Feb  2012
Nifty - End of Month Chart (EOM): As always we take a 'Long Distance View' of the Nifty with the chart above - where each candle is a Month's data. The pullback to the green channel is still on - and we look forward to the 5 EMA over 13 SMA cross to ring in Bull times again. The area in the square as marked above - is what we analyze with the EOW chart below.

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 24 Feb  2012
Nifty - End of Week chart (EOW): We have a consolidation around the channel top - which is good, so long as the Bulls get moving again, into the new 'up' channel marked (black lines) above. The lower volume bar for this red candle week, should give the Bulls the required zest. EOD analysis of the area marked with a blue square is up next.

Nifty - End of Day - 24 Feb  2012
Nifty - End of Day chart (EOD): The Correction was supported at the Fib 76x as we calculated - however Price did not bounce back into the comfort zone for the Bulls. A bearish cross of the 5 EMA below the 13 SMA looks imminent.  One notes that the Longer term Bullish cross of the 34 EMA over 200 DMA is still intact and this correction would test the strength of the Bull resolve on that count.

Looking Forward:  End of Month data is important later on in the week.  Bulls get back the 'power' above the 5484 mark and would look at keeping above the Fib 76x (5414) to keep momentum.  Bears while strong in the current 'short' term, need to go and stay below the Fibonacci  76.4% (EOD) to be taken seriously. 

Saturday, February 25, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen Analysis - End of Week: 24 Feb 2012 - Almost at last year's High

Recap: We analyzed the S&P with End of Week charts until last week. Now we shall do the full three screens - Month, Week and Day as we do for the Nifty. Last week (see post here) we saw the SP500 eying last year's high and we find as of now, that its still a mite below it.

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart - 24 Feb  2012
S&P 500 End of Month Chart (EOM) : The chart above is an update of the chart we studied end Jan'12 (post here) and learned that it was 'Advantage Bulls'. As one can see highlighted above, the green price line has moved well above the 'Blue Middle Line' of our Monthly channel set. 

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart - 24 Feb  2012
S&P 500 End of Week Chart (EOW) : For a closer look, we zoom in with the EOW charts. We see the '3 white lines' of the Weekly channel. As we observed for the past few weeks, the SP500 is on a steep rate of climb and is sticking to below the week's middle channel line. Last year's High is yet to be taken out.

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart - 24 Feb  2012
S&P 500 End of Day Chart (EOD) : Here you can see the 'red, blue and green' lines of the Month chart. Slashing across it you see the 'three white lines' of the Weekly chart. Hugging below the 'white mid-line' of the Weekly chart are our three 'Yellow' Day chart lines. The SP 500 has stayed above the Middle line of these 3 Day Channel lines. Its also above all the short term MAs viz. 5 EMA, 13 SMA and 10 EMA.

Looking Forward: The Bull option is to break above the Mid-line of the Week channel and the Bear option is to go below the Mid-line of the Daily channel. Current momentum favors the Bull. Divergences (on technical indicators, EOM and EOD) favor the Bear. Closing above last year's high is the next milestone. 

Friday, February 24, 2012

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 24 02 2012 - Bingo :) its Fibonacci Support

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 24 Feb 2012
With a low of 5406 and close at 5429 the Nifty took support at the Fibonnaci 74.6% (5414). 
It however remained below the 5454 that we saw strength for the Bulls at, in our last weekend's post (see Nifty - End of Day Chart (EOD) and Looking forward sections of the post here). 
Overall a decent consolidation - long pending and it very nicely took support at the Fib we expected. 
Weekend posts are on their way...

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 22 02 2012 - Channel Top Resistance

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 22 Feb 2012
With our weekend analysis (see 'Looking Forward' here) showing that Nifty faced resistance of a weekly and daily channel TOP - we smelled the consolidation in the air. The Bears made an easy 100 points today. Now to see the follow up - if the Fib 76x holds up the fall.

Monday, February 20, 2012

CNX Nifty 'End of Week' Technical Analysis: After week 13-17 Feb, 2012

Recap: Last week one saw the Fall of the Fibonacci 76.4% marked on the EOD charts (post here). We noted that our channel drawn a month ago - was exactly followed by the Price (post here) and in the same post, we also observed that some crossovers indicate the Bull Market's return, then we studied moving average crossovers - both for and against.

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 17 Feb  2012 - each candle is ONE MONTH
Nifty - End of Month Chart (EOM): Around mid December we had observed (post here) that a pullback to the Green line was possible (highlighted with a blue oval above) - at that Bearish time it looked a remote possibility - today that line looks tantalizingly close. This month's candle can touch the green line at approx 5747 and next month's candle approx 5838. Now, we shall zoom in for a closer look at the area marked in the blue rectangle - with the EOW chart below.

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 17 Feb  2012 - each candle is ONE WEEK
Nifty - End of Week Chart (EOW): Last week's candle has exactly touched our channel top (highlighted with a blue  oval above). Cracking last week's high should give us our new channel (shown in black) and the targets discussed in the EOM above. A consolidation around the channel top is healthy for the up move. We now study the area marked inside the blue rectangle with the EOD charts below.

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 17 Feb 2012 - DAILY close price in a line
Nifty - End of Day Chart (EOD): We are near channel top here also as observed earlier (post here).  The next leg of the up move or consolidation should be watched in sync with EOW and EOM notes above. Bulls remain strong above 5454. Throw back should be held by the Fib 76x line.

Looking forward: Channel tops, both on EOD and EOW, smell of consolidation. Bulls however have enough momentum to take the climb into a steeper channel up. Fundamental reasons (Budget and PIGS) may queer the pitch. Battle lines between Bears and Bulls are drawn for now, at the channel lines as studied above.

Saturday, February 18, 2012

S&P 500 - End of Week Analysis - 17 Feb 2012 - Last year's high in sight...

S&P 500 - EOW Analysis - End of Week:  13 Feb to 17 Feb, 2012
The S&P 500 continues its steep rate of climb - like we observed last week (post here), the middle channel line is the current resistance. Bulls failed around these levels last year (see candles of April - May 2011) and that cluster of resistances also play a role in next week's action. 1376 is the middle channel resistance for next week and the number, the Bulls should look to beat.

Friday, February 17, 2012

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 17 02 2012 - Channels and Crossovers..

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 17 Feb 2012
It was about a month ago that we defined the channel you see on the EOD above (post here). We have a precise climax at the channel top happening now - 800 odd Nifty points later.

The crossover of the 34 EMA to above the 200 DMA on the EOD has significance from a long term view. So does the 5 EMA - 13 SMA cross on the EOM mentioned last week (post here). They usually signify the return of the Bull market.

Here are some free reads on MA crossover for the weekend....

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 15 02 2012 - To the channel top

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 15 Feb 2012
In the last post we wished for a more convincing close above the Fib76x (than the 2 point plus we got yesterday) - as seen above the price has closed well above the Fix 76x and almost at the Channel top (red line is approx. 5555 at this time). Range is as shown with the arrows. The MACD is also worth a look.

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 14 02 2012 - On the Summit again .. Fib 76x

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 14 Feb 2012
The last time we saw the Index close around the Fibonacci 76.4% on the EOD, the close was at 5412 (see post here). Today's close was at 5416. We approximated 5414 as the Fib 76x (see post here). From the hi-lighted zone on the price above, it looks like we can wish for a more convincing close above the Fib76x ! 

Double Top .. any takers? Here are some free reads I liked....

The hi-light on the MACD indicator (bottom of EOD chart) is also worth a view.

Sunday, February 12, 2012

CNX Nifty Technical Analysis: Week ending 10 Feb 2012

Recap: We defined the Fib 76x (Fibonacci retracement 76.4% drawn on the EOD chart) as the resistance for the week (for post click here). We observed the Price hit this mark, and fall back, early last week (for post click here). We then observed the close above 5400, which however fell short of the Fib76x, and took a call that the range was intact (for post click here). Nifty closed below the 5400 and within our range marked on the EOD by weekend.

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 10 Feb  2012
Nifty End of Month Chart (EOM): Month candle continues to stand strong on the 5 EMA. Bullish cross of the 5 EMA above the 13 SMA would imply long term strength in the index. We analyze the highlighted area with the EOW charts next....

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 10 Feb  2012
Nifty End of Week Chart (EOW): The candle, last week's Price action gave us, was a Doji. The position implies a possible 'Bearish Doji Star', which is only a moderate indicator of trend change. We should look out for a 'Evening Doji Star' a stronger pattern which implies that the Bears really mean business. The primary condition for above happening is that price all through next week stay below the Doji's body (approx. 5379). ...  Study link below..

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 10 Feb 2012
Nifty End of Day Chart (EOD): The Price refused to cross the Fib76x on closing basis last week. So our range remains same and as shown. Bulls remain strong above the 200 DMA and would look at reaching the red top line. Watch the Fib76x to 5 EMA zone.

Looking Forward: The possibility of a 'Evening Doji Star' on the EOW chart, the strength that the Bulls displayed above the 200 DMA, the Doji of last week and our EOW analysis of the SP500 (post, below this one) - together give us a sense that if the Bears defend Fib76x, they can take the Price all the way to the lower end of our range on the EOD i.e 200DMA. Bulls however are still in the driver's seat if they close the index above the Fib76x.

Saturday, February 11, 2012

S&P 500 - End of Week Analysis - 10 Feb 2012 - Mid life crisis above the blues..

S&P 500 - EOW Analysis - End of Week:  06 Feb to 10 Feb, 2012
Last week we concluded (in our post here) that, the Bulls would have to move the S&P 500, above the middle line, of the three white lines forming the weekly channel, as above.

See the highlighted area, Bulls came up short as this week's red candle fails at the mid-line. We are however, comfortably above the Blue middle line of the Monthly channel. The last two candles,  form a 'Harami' candle pattern - some weekend reads on this below...

Bearish Harami....
Harami - how to ..

Thursday, February 9, 2012

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 09 02 2012 - On the Summit .. Fib 76x

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 09 Feb 2012
Our last EOD Analysis (here) saw the Bears move the index down from the # Fib76x by 90 odd points  - now we see from the highlighted area above, that Bulls have brought it back up and closed it at 5412 .. precisely at the Fib76x. We look for a close above the Fib76x as confirmation of the current range (Fib 76x - 200 DMA) being broken. The red channel top is next target for the Bulls.

# Fib 76x = Fibonacci 76.4%  ..  this is drawn from the 2008 bottom that the Nifty made to the 2011 top - FYI ... again. 

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 07 02 2012 - Knocking on the Fib 76x

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 07 Feb 2012
5414 was where we saw the Fib 76x last week (post here - see 'Looking forward') - 5413 is the high for this week's candle to date - the alert Bear would have taken home 90 odd points (see last candle) riding the fall from Fib76x to candle bottom. Bulls however continue to remain strong above the 200 DMA.  The last two candles resemble the 'hanging man' pattern which we studied here last.

Sunday, February 5, 2012

CNX Nifty Technical Analysis: Week ending 03 Feb 2012

Recap: We understood that the bears were at a disadvantage above the 34 EMA and planned to watch the US S&P 500 month close (post here). We took direction from the US S&P 500 (post here) and watched the 200 DMA being taken out (post here). We also noticed that 13 was unlucky for Bears :) as a 13 month old channel resistance gave way to the Bull onslaught (post here). We ended the week with a couple of studies (just below this post).

                                                            Nifty - End of Month Chart - 03 Feb  2012
Nifty End of Month Chart (EOM): The month candle is in the oversold zone. The Bullish stance is studied in the Ichimoku Update (here). A cross of the SMA 13 and EMA 5 needs to be watched - lets now zero in on the 'circled' area with the EOW chart.

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 03 Feb  2012
Nifty End of Week Chart (EOW): A major resistance gave way last week - freeing the bulls and making the bears run for cover. The channels to be watched are marked on the Price and oscillator. Let's now zoom in on the highlighted area with a EOD analysis.

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 03 Feb 2012
Nifty End of Day Chart (EOD): With the 200 DMA being crossed last week, it becomes our support for now.  Resistance is same as last week - the Fib 76x. Throw back now should not go beneath the 200 DMA. 

Looking forward: 5414 thereabouts is where the Fib76x is located. With some ranging between this level and the 200 DMA, one sees the up move safe to resume. Divergences on the Oscillators (EOD-chart) and World cues matter (analyzed in the post here). Intra Week updates shall be up.

Saturday, February 4, 2012

S&P 500 - End of Week Analysis - 03 02 2012 - above the blues

S&P 500 - EOW Analysis - End of Week  Jan' 30 to Feb'03, 2012
Our End of Jan'12 Analysis (post here) concluded that it was Advantage Bulls. Since then the bulls have moved the index up 30 odd points, keeping well above the BLUE middle line of the monthly channel (shown above). The 3 white lines show the Weekly channel (update from old post here). Moving above the middle line of the Weekly channel is what would keep the Bulls on their toes next week.

Thursday, February 2, 2012

EOW (update) Analysis CNX Nifty - 02 02 2012 - Thirteen and still lucky?

Nifty 02 02 2012 End of Week Chart - update
We have the fine tuned EOW Channel that we study, above - updated at this crucial time for your perusal. As things stand now, its a channel which has stood for 13 months and appears to have luck on its side until now - will it give way this week ?

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 01 02 2012 - Global Cues and the 200DMA

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 01 Feb  2012

In our ' Looking Forward ' for this week (post here) we suggested that " .. we should watch this month's close of the S&P 500.." The relevant post (below) analyzed that its 'Advantage Bulls' so far as the S&P is concerned. No coincidence then, that Nifty cracked the all important 200 DMA soon after. 

The Fib 76x now comes into our radar, divergences (marked)on the indicators need to be noted. We are also exactly at the channel top of the 13 month old weekly channel seen in the Analysis of the  Nifty End of Week Chart  (post here) - that is a 13 month old resistance !                  

S&P 500 - End of Month, January 2012 - Advantage Bulls.

S&P 500 - End of Month, January 2012

We studied this chart for the last three months of 2011. In our last post (here) we said that " the Bears would be impressed only if 1303+ happens to be the closing for Jan 2012"

January 2012 closed with 1312+ on the chart and its Advantage Bulls. Like the angle of climb of a fighter plane (which maxed out) changes, our channel lines too change after this price action. See new chart below. Staying above the Blue line is what would keep the Bulls in play for now...

S&P 500 - End of Month,  January 2012 - New Channels