S&P 500 - Triple Screen Analysis - Week: 27 Feb to 02 Mar '2012 - Flirting with last year's High

Recap: The SP500 was hovering around last year's high when we discussed it last (post here). The index has closed above last year's high just once on EOD basis, in last week's action. Currently below these highs, one looks for direction from these oversold levels.

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart - 02 March 2012

S&P 500 End of Month Chart (EOM) : As we move into March, the EOM chart above, shows us a flat line at its tip. The 5 EMA has decisively moved above the 13 SMA, indicating long term Bull strength. One can study past action of these moving averages by looking at the earlier crossovers in the chart. A re-look at the following studies (which we first studied here) will put things in proper perspective.

http://www.traderslog.com/moving-average-crossovers/ 

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:trading_strategies:arthur_hill_on_movin

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart - 02 March 2012

S&P 500 End of Week Chart (EOW): The weekly channels are in white - across the colored monthly channel lines. The SP500 continues its climb using the middle channel line as resistance. Support for last week was the 5 EMA on the EOW Charts. 

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart - 02 March  2012

S&P 500 End of Day Chart (EOD): The re-aligned Day channel lines are in yellow and are inclined at the same angle as the Weekly channel lines. One can see from the last 5 candles that most of last week's action was in a tight range. SP500 has closed the week a tad below the 5 EMA on the EOD - Bulls however, are still in control.

Looking Forward: The divergences seen last week only resulted in some ranging  - the Bulls retain strength - Bears would look at keeping the price on the EOD below the 5 EMA. Bulls should be happy to remain in the current channel - on the EOD chart. Incidentally the last two candles on the EOD chart forms a 'Bearish Harami' (studied here earlier). However this rather weak 'bearish pattern' does not make it 'Advantage Bears' yet...

S&P 500 - End of Week Analysis - 10 Feb 2012 - Mid life crisis above the blues..

S&P 500 - EOW Analysis - End of Week:  06 Feb to 10 Feb, 2012

Last week we concluded (in our post here) that, the Bulls would have to move the S&P 500, above the middle line, of the three white lines forming the weekly channel, as above.

See the highlighted area, Bulls came up short as this week's red candle fails at the mid-line. We are however, comfortably above the Blue middle line of the Monthly channel. The last two candles,  form a 'Harami' candle pattern - some weekend reads on this below...

Bearish Harami....
http://www.thepatternsite.com/HaramiBear.html
Harami - how to ..
http://www.traderslog.com/bearish-harami-weekly-candlestick/

S&P 500 - End of Week Analysis - Déjà vu ?

S&P 500 - EOW Analysis - End of Week  Jan' 23-27, 2012

Last week (post here) we saw the Price pull back and break into the Monthly channel's bottom line(red) - shown encircled above. 

This week's candle is a Doji. The combination of the last two candles remind one of a Bearish Doji Star (studied on the Nifty here), the channel in white is the one the S&P 500 follows now. Earlier channel is in blue. 

The Month's targets remain relevant. Intra-month movement by the price into the red Channel is same as in Nov'11.

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 27 01 2012 - Hanging on to the 200DMA

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 27  Jan  2012

We checked out some Candle patterns in the past couple of weeks. The one circled in red here. The one in Blue here. The Nifty saw and conquered the 200 DMA and is hanging on with the candle pattern shown in green :) Here are some weekend reads from some free resources on the net. The question now is ... Bullish continuation or Bearish reversal ?

Hanging Man


http://www.thepatternsite.com/HangingMan.html
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hangingman.asp#axzz1kf2t3zO9
http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs26.asp

CNX Nifty Technical Analysis: Week ending 20 Jan 2012.

Recap: We identified the point where Nifty would break out from (post here) and a candle stick pattern to go with it (post here). Post break out we redefined the channels Nifty would follow (post here) and ended the week with the Price exactly at the new channel's middle blue line (post here).  

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 20  Jan  2012

Nifty End of Month Chart: The bulls conquered the 5 EMA on the month chart. This chart is back to bull mode. Pull back to the green line looks possible from here. Zooming in we analyze the area encircled in blue next - with the 'End of Week' chart.

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 20 Jan 2012

Nifty End of Week Chart: Our point last week (post here)on the indicator popping above the 20 mark was made. The Bulls went on a rampage all the way to the 34 EMA where they saw resistance exactly as marked. Bears look like they will not give up this zone without a fight. We now zoom in on the area encircled in red with the 'End of Day' Charts.

Nifty - End of Day Chart A - 20  Jan  2012

Nifty End of Day Chart A:  The revised channels presented intra week (post here) worked out for the Bulls - the mid point was reached with precision as was the range exactly as marked. 

Nifty - End of Day Chart B - 20  Jan  2012

Nifty End of Day Chart B:  A second channel possibility is presented - for both options one looks at a controlled throw back to the old channel top (black line) or Fib61x as the next event to be watched. The candle stick chart of the above has a point of note as we saw yesterday (post here).

Looking Forward: Bulls are in a strong place now. Its natural then that resistances in different time frames, as we saw above, should develop. Bulls now needs to break the upper end of the range shown on the EOD charts above to keep their momentum. Early sign would be trading above last week's close and negating the Bearish Doji Star. Failure gives Bears a toe hold into the week and post settlement (for the Jan'12 series), a chance to strike back. Intra Week updates shall be up.

Bearish Doji Star

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 20  Jan  2012 - Candles

The last time we paid attention to Candlesticks it paid off good (post here). So here is the next possibility. Suggested reading material below..

http://www.candlestickanalysis.com/bearish-doji-star-candlestick-pattern

S&P 500 - End of Week Analysis - Monthly channel breach?

S&P 500 - EOW Analysis - Week 16-20  Jan 2012.

We had observed last week (post here) that the price could break either of the channel lines it was between. Price closed above the red channel line which is the channel bottom of the monthly channel (from here). With 10 days to go for the month to end, bulls just need to keep it above the red line for monthly momentum to remain on their side.  Déjà vu ?

CNX Nifty: Tri-star Doji anyone?

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 13  Jan  2012 - Candles

Looks almost like three Dojis - that evokes memories of a Tri-star Doji - Here are the write ups from a free resource on the internet - Read the examples also :) Your call....

http://thepatternsite.com/TriStarBull.html
http://thepatternsite.com/TriStarBear.html

CNX Nifty: Week ending 06 Jan 2012.

Recap: 

Our bullish scenario for the first week of 2012 had Nifty moving above 4650. We analyzed the moves Nifty made thro' intra week posts on the 60 minute charts (3 posts) - Nifty moved past the 4650 resistance, was resisted at the 34 EMA and settled at 4747 for the week.

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 06  Jan  2012

Nifty End of Day Chart:

The Nifty is in neutral zone compared to deep red last weekend. The strong resistance first at the 34 SMA and then at the 34 EMA had held the Bulls down. Moving past these, Fib 61x and the red channel top beckon. 

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 06 Jan 2012

Nifty End of Week Chart:

The Nifty spent yet another week closing below the all important 200 DMA. The STS too gives the Bulls a dismal picture. Since we are on the subject of DMA again and again, here is some read up that I found useful...

http://tradingsim.com/blog/displaced-moving-average/

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 06  Jan  2012

Nifty End of Month Chart:

The lower indicator on this chart has turned up finally giving the Bulls something to look up to. The 5 EMA remains the next barrier. The throw back to the green line after that?


Looking Forward: 
The week after a down spiral was bucked, always has some consolidation. Expect a clear trend to emerge a bit into the week. Intra-week posts shall be up.

S&P 500 - End of Week Analysis - Channel Break!

S&P 500 - EOW Analysis - Week starting 02 Jan 2012.

Our last post on this subject anticipated a 'retreat from' or 'break of' the top line of the falling channel shown above. We have a break. The break of the upper channel line of a weekly channel should have the price shooting up....however we observe from our monthly study (here) that all this is a pullback to the bottom of the monthly channel which is officially breached if Jan 2012 closes above 1303. So we wait for that event and watch the space around the weekly channel top where the action will now be centered.

S&P End of Month - December 2011

S&P End of Month - December 2011

We were studying this chart for October and November this year. Last month we estimated that the 1285  level EOM December is what the long term Bear would throw in the hat at ..... The closing for this month is only 1258.  S&P can continue to make more attempts at breaching the channel's bottom - however the Bears would be impressed only if 1303+ happens to be the closing for Jan 2012. 

S&P 500 - EOW Analysis - Week starting 19 Dec 2011

S&P - EOW Analysis - Week starting 19 Dec 2011

The Channel made by the weekly candles of the SP500 - one can see that the downward channel is under pressure for some weeks now - but just about holding without a breach of the channel top line - coming week could be a decider....

Update - End of Day : 20 December 2011

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 20 12 2011

Update to our week-end chart -the Price seems to be making a bee-line for our channel bottom .. guess the Bulls would look at holding this line after the morning star failed to shine on them... :)

Update - End of Day : 19 December 2011

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 19 12 2011

Above is the zoom in of the EOD chart we saw last week end - in candle mode - so that one can share a view of the last two candles ... One looks for reversal signs during every trend and so, the last two candles suggest the possibility of a 'Morning Star' Formation ... if not, its good for a revision of the same in the very least...

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/morningstar.asp#axzz1gzJs4sbR

http://thepatternsite.com/MorningStar.html

S&P Analysis - End of Week starting 12 Dec 2011

S&P Analysis - End of Week starting 12 Dec 2011

Refer our post of last Sunday titled 'S&P - End of Week - 09 Dec 2011'  the resistance line held.. but the candle formation was not to be.. leaving some of those over-enthusiastic Bears a bit miffed ... :)

S&P - End of Week - 09 Dec 2011

SP 500 - End of Week Chart - 09 Dec 2011

The Falling channel formed by the Weekly candles since May 2011, is depicted above...let's look at the last two candles....we have a critical resistance line that the next week's candle needs to fight, to keep the Bulls in business...we also have the possibility of a Evening star formation - if next week's candle opens below this week's candle - as a student of the markets let us then use this excuse to study this pattern at the link below...

http://thepatternsite.com/EveningStar.html

So watch out for that resistance line and candle formation....peace!