CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 30 July to 03 August, 2012 - Bears hold a line..

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:  

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 03 Aug, 2012

 Above is the Month Chart - EOM -  analyzing Data from 2008 onward.  





Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:  

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 03 Aug, 2012.

 Above is the Week Chart - EOW -  analyzing Data from 2010 onward.  

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices  (or) EOD Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 03 Aug, 2012.

Above is the Day Chart - EOD - analyzing Data from May 2012, onward.  





Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bulls did not close last month above the previous month's close. The Bullish 'Three outside Up' (1) is not on...

Bulls did however, keep the Bullish 5 EMA -13 SMA cross on the EOM (1) and 50 SMA - 200 SMA on EOD (5)alive.

We see that the index stayed above the 34 EMA - on the EOD, EOW & EOM.

A partial  'Advantage Bulls', gave us a green week.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bulls have started the month above the 5 EMA on the EOM (1), EOW (3) & EOD (5).

The resistance on the EOW - one needs to watch - is on the STS (4)

Bears would need to move the index below 5045 (wall) to make an impact.

Staying above the 5191 mark for the month give the Bulls power for August.

As its not completely 'Advantage Bulls' going into August - we still look for confirmation.

The index is resisted by the old EOD channel top and the middle blue line of current channel (5) - a line Bulls need to break to move up.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 07 May to 11 May, 2012 - Bear that Dawn..

Learnings from the Past Week:

We came into the past week with the Bears in command of the Nifty.

The Nifty continued to trend downwards, we discussed the start of the current move here (click).

Following the Bearish 'Three Inside Down' on the EOM (click) - May has made a huge red candle.

As we learned in the previous Ichimoku Cloud Analysis - the times are dark for the Longs.

Where does one go from here - what follows these dark hours for the Bull?

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:  

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 11 May, 2012. 

We noted at the beginning of this month's candle, that 5199 was the mark to stay above - for a Bull (click).

Sliding below that caused the Nifty to reach 4929 in quick time, with the some help from the Bearish candle pattern, seen above.

Currently the big Bullish cue, that the Nifty presents for the Long term, is on the EOD charts - the Bullish Golden Cross and the 34 EMA over the 200 DMA - which are still alive.

Lets see what the EOW has to offer..

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart: 

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 11 May, 2012.

We were watching this screen all of last week (click).

The bears seemed to have made off with the cake - however a different perspective was shown for the record (click).

The Stochastic Indicator also seems to be telling us, that a consolidation is possible here.

As things stand - Bears have the power and all the Short MAs that we watch, are crossed Bearishly.

On to the the EOD then..

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action  (or) EOD Chart:  

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 11 May, 2012.

We have moved to a candle chart for this study - just for a change.

Closing below the 5 EMA, all of last week - Bears had an easy job of sliding down the index.

Our old friend, the MACD remains in the minus - we watched that one from the start.

Channel mid point (blue line) and Fibonacci 61x, are the next scheduled stops.

Looking Forward into the next week:

Momentum across all screens - is with the Bears - as of this time.

Even the Long Term Bullish Crosses we studied, can Un-Cross themselves in a week, at this rate of fall.

Which is exactly why the contra thinking, confirmed Bulls among us would enjoy the next few days.

If this is the darkest hour - can the dawn be far?

Intra-week updates shall be up, to capture the action, next.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 19 March to 23 March, 2012 - Channel bottom..

Recap: 
Last week (posted here), we figured that the US and European markets would fall, and this would put pressure on Indian markets. 
They did fall and we got red candles, on the S&P and Nifty, last week. 
We also tracked the market's moves with intra week, EOD updates. 
The Nifty ended below the crucial 34 EMA on the EOD charts. 
Where to next?

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 23 M arch 2012   

CNX Nifty 50 - Month Chart (each candle is 1 Month's price action): Long Term
This month's red candle is above the 5 EMA and is arguing with the 13 SMA, we find that the Month chart still presents a positive picture.
The developing 'Bearish Harami' on the last two candles, is the only small worry for the Bull.

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 23 March  2012  

CNX Nifty 50 - Week Chart (each candle is 1 Week's price action): Medium Term
A fifth red candle happened last week. 
The support was again near the rising 34 EMA. 
After a lower High in the previous week's Candle, we have a higher Low with last week's candle. 
Bulls can look for some relief staying above the 34 EMA (EOW).

Nifty - End of Day - 23 March  2012  

CNX Nifty 50 - Day/EOD Chart (closing prices of each Day in a line): Short Term
We posted in our last EOD analysis (here) that we were at channel bottom. 
As one can see, the Nifty seems to be taking support at the green line in the chart above. 
The last touch and go (5 EMA/13 SMA) resulted in the bearish crossover continuing. 
We are still below the 34 EMA.
The falling 34 EMA is above the 200 DMA.

Looking Forward: 
Staying above our channel bottom, the Nifty would aim for the wall at 5484. 
If the bottom fails, the next support is the 200 DMA, as marked. 
Settlement weeks usually produce some solid 'action time'. 
After 5 red weeks, if a relief rally is coming up, this is one such time.

The Dow 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 12 March to 16 March 2012 - Gravity and Equilibrium.

DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 16 March 2012 

Our previous Study with the 'Cloud' (post here) proclaimed that the 'Bulls have it all'. And yes, they did decisively surpass, last year's high, as if to emphasis the point. 

Please read previous study, for ALL the signals/indications that the Cloud has thrown up  recently. As you would have read in our first Ichimoku post's reading material, Ichimoku is all about using the messages from multiple signals, not just the latest.

This weekend we focus on one aspect of the Cloud - the 'FLAT Kumo'. As you can see -  marked 'G' in the chart, the Senkou Span B (grey line) appears flat from now on..

We know that the SENKOU SPAN B is the (HIGHEST HIGH + LOWEST LOW)/2 for the past 52 periods time-shifted forwards (into the future) 26 periods. Look at 'F', a trend less time, which fits the above, as the formula would produce a flat line just about now. 

The Flat Span implies Equilibrium and because Price loves to get back to equilibrium,  the flat senkou span B  becomes strong attractor of the price-line towards it. 

One can see the Flat Senkou Span B, doing exactly this, during Dec'11. 

Could be early times for that to happen, but one likes to be in the know. Why else study?

S&P 500 - Triple Screen Analysis - Week: 27 Feb to 02 Mar '2012 - Flirting with last year's High

Recap: The SP500 was hovering around last year's high when we discussed it last (post here). The index has closed above last year's high just once on EOD basis, in last week's action. Currently below these highs, one looks for direction from these oversold levels.

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart - 02 March 2012

S&P 500 End of Month Chart (EOM) : As we move into March, the EOM chart above, shows us a flat line at its tip. The 5 EMA has decisively moved above the 13 SMA, indicating long term Bull strength. One can study past action of these moving averages by looking at the earlier crossovers in the chart. A re-look at the following studies (which we first studied here) will put things in proper perspective.

http://www.traderslog.com/moving-average-crossovers/ 

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:trading_strategies:arthur_hill_on_movin

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart - 02 March 2012

S&P 500 End of Week Chart (EOW): The weekly channels are in white - across the colored monthly channel lines. The SP500 continues its climb using the middle channel line as resistance. Support for last week was the 5 EMA on the EOW Charts. 

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart - 02 March  2012

S&P 500 End of Day Chart (EOD): The re-aligned Day channel lines are in yellow and are inclined at the same angle as the Weekly channel lines. One can see from the last 5 candles that most of last week's action was in a tight range. SP500 has closed the week a tad below the 5 EMA on the EOD - Bulls however, are still in control.

Looking Forward: The divergences seen last week only resulted in some ranging  - the Bulls retain strength - Bears would look at keeping the price on the EOD below the 5 EMA. Bulls should be happy to remain in the current channel - on the EOD chart. Incidentally the last two candles on the EOD chart forms a 'Bearish Harami' (studied here earlier). However this rather weak 'bearish pattern' does not make it 'Advantage Bears' yet...

S&P 500 - End of Week Analysis - 17 Feb 2012 - Last year's high in sight...

S&P 500 - EOW Analysis - End of Week:  13 Feb to 17 Feb, 2012

The S&P 500 continues its steep rate of climb - like we observed last week (post here), the middle channel line is the current resistance. Bulls failed around these levels last year (see candles of April - May 2011) and that cluster of resistances also play a role in next week's action. 1376 is the middle channel resistance for next week and the number, the Bulls should look to beat.

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 14 02 2012 - On the Summit again .. Fib 76x

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 14 Feb 2012

The last time we saw the Index close around the Fibonacci 76.4% on the EOD, the close was at 5412 (see post here). Today's close was at 5416. We approximated 5414 as the Fib 76x (see post here). From the hi-lighted zone on the price above, it looks like we can wish for a more convincing close above the Fib76x ! 

Double Top .. any takers? Here are some free reads I liked....
http://thepatternsite.com/AdamEvePatterns.html
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:double_top_reversal

The hi-light on the MACD indicator (bottom of EOD chart) is also worth a view.

S&P 500 - End of Month, January 2012 - Advantage Bulls.

S&P 500 - End of Month, January 2012

We studied this chart for the last three months of 2011. In our last post (here) we said that " the Bears would be impressed only if 1303+ happens to be the closing for Jan 2012"

January 2012 closed with 1312+ on the chart and its Advantage Bulls. Like the angle of climb of a fighter plane (which maxed out) changes, our channel lines too change after this price action. See new chart below. Staying above the Blue line is what would keep the Bulls in play for now...

S&P 500 - End of Month,  January 2012 - New Channels

Analysis CNX Nifty with 60 min chart - 31 01 2012 - Support and Resistance

Nifty - 60 Min chart - 30 and 31  Jan  2012

In our ' Looking Forward ' for this week (post here) we opined that "..bears cannot really get themselves into the game unless the price stays below the 34 EMA or in the very short-term, below 5160.."

See above the action on Monday where the price closed below 5160 in the first hour - and proceeded on a Bear run. Today however the Bulls with a gap up persisted below the 5160 mark and post lunch cracked it and immediately shot the index up. Elementary example of resistance and support. Some free reads from the net on that subject, if you care to read 'em, pasted below..

http://www.stocktradingtogo.com/2009/05/11/support-and-resistance-rules-levels-technical-analysis/

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/061801.asp#axzz1l2wPH3e4

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Support_and_resistance

Meanwhile the 200 DMA as mentioned, continues to be resistance and we wait for the US close tonight, to see how the month closes.

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 27 01 2012 - Hanging on to the 200DMA

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 27  Jan  2012

We checked out some Candle patterns in the past couple of weeks. The one circled in red here. The one in Blue here. The Nifty saw and conquered the 200 DMA and is hanging on with the candle pattern shown in green :) Here are some weekend reads from some free resources on the net. The question now is ... Bullish continuation or Bearish reversal ?

Hanging Man


http://www.thepatternsite.com/HangingMan.html
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hangingman.asp#axzz1kf2t3zO9
http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs26.asp

CNX Nifty Technical Analysis: Week ending 20 Jan 2012.

Recap: We identified the point where Nifty would break out from (post here) and a candle stick pattern to go with it (post here). Post break out we redefined the channels Nifty would follow (post here) and ended the week with the Price exactly at the new channel's middle blue line (post here).  

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 20  Jan  2012

Nifty End of Month Chart: The bulls conquered the 5 EMA on the month chart. This chart is back to bull mode. Pull back to the green line looks possible from here. Zooming in we analyze the area encircled in blue next - with the 'End of Week' chart.

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 20 Jan 2012

Nifty End of Week Chart: Our point last week (post here)on the indicator popping above the 20 mark was made. The Bulls went on a rampage all the way to the 34 EMA where they saw resistance exactly as marked. Bears look like they will not give up this zone without a fight. We now zoom in on the area encircled in red with the 'End of Day' Charts.

Nifty - End of Day Chart A - 20  Jan  2012

Nifty End of Day Chart A:  The revised channels presented intra week (post here) worked out for the Bulls - the mid point was reached with precision as was the range exactly as marked. 

Nifty - End of Day Chart B - 20  Jan  2012

Nifty End of Day Chart B:  A second channel possibility is presented - for both options one looks at a controlled throw back to the old channel top (black line) or Fib61x as the next event to be watched. The candle stick chart of the above has a point of note as we saw yesterday (post here).

Looking Forward: Bulls are in a strong place now. Its natural then that resistances in different time frames, as we saw above, should develop. Bulls now needs to break the upper end of the range shown on the EOD charts above to keep their momentum. Early sign would be trading above last week's close and negating the Bearish Doji Star. Failure gives Bears a toe hold into the week and post settlement (for the Jan'12 series), a chance to strike back. Intra Week updates shall be up.

Bearish Doji Star

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 20  Jan  2012 - Candles

The last time we paid attention to Candlesticks it paid off good (post here). So here is the next possibility. Suggested reading material below..

http://www.candlestickanalysis.com/bearish-doji-star-candlestick-pattern

S&P 500 - End of Week Analysis - Monthly channel breach?

S&P 500 - EOW Analysis - Week 16-20  Jan 2012.

We had observed last week (post here) that the price could break either of the channel lines it was between. Price closed above the red channel line which is the channel bottom of the monthly channel (from here). With 10 days to go for the month to end, bulls just need to keep it above the red line for monthly momentum to remain on their side.  Déjà vu ?

S&P 500 - End of Week Analysis - between the lines

S&P 500 - EOW Analysis - Week 02-13  Jan 2012.

The last post on this topic anticipated correctly, that the space around the weekly channel top is where the action would be centered - See arrow. We have a green candle hedged by two lines, the week's channel top and the month's channel bottom. Resolution would invoke one of them giving way. The S&P is in an oversold and Bullish state right now. The month targets remain relevant. 

CNX Nifty: Week ending 13 Jan 2012.

Recap: We had a week where the EOD charts saw the Price touch an important Fibonacci level plus a Channel top line rather EXACTLY . The EOW charts had the price closing above the 200 DMA after some time. The Nifty is in a good place now for the Bulls. What next....

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 13  Jan  2012

Nifty End of Day Chart: As already noted we have the price nudging against a rather strong resistance cluster. a daily close above this with good volumes is what Bulls look for.

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 13 Jan 2012

Nifty End of Week Chart: A close above the 200 DMA after so long is good for the Bulls as is the indicator showing above the green resistance/support line, if the indicator can now peek above the 20 mark - one sees the Bulls in serious business.

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 13  Jan  2012

Nifty End of Month Chart: A Bullish Harami is what the last two candles indicate at the present moment ... but the point to notice is the up tick in the indicators and the green candle for the month.

Looking Forward: A strong move above the resistances mentioned in the EOD is what one needs to start the week on a Bullish note. The same resistance is important enough to act as the nemesis of the Bulls. Current picture is green for Nifty - so long as its above 4800 it remains green for the next couple of days at-least ... intra week updates shall be up.

Update - End of Day : 13 Jan 2012 - stand off !

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 13 01 2012

The Fib61x was mentioned - couple of posts ago - as being @4868 ... Nifty closes this week at 4866 :)

See also the precision with which the Price line touches the confluence of our red channel top and Fib61x .. Bulls and Bears face off - even!

So why is Fib61x so critical .. why indeed is Fib - Fibonacci revered by Technical analysts? Well it comes naturally (pun intended) or so it seems ... here is some weekend reading..

http://www.maths.surrey.ac.uk/hosted-sites/R.Knott/Fibonacci/fibnat.html

Update - End of Day : 12 Jan 2012

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 12 01 2012

Our last update (here) mentions that 'The red channel top and the Fib 61x are key resistances to Nifty'  From today's EOD chart one sees that the Price bounced off the Fib 61x. Staying above these resistances remains all important for Bulls. Meanwhile on the EOW chart, the price close is still above the 200 DMA - with one day left for the week to end - touch wood say the Bulls, Amen :)

Update - End of Day : 10 Jan 2012

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 10 01 2012

After one day of consolidation at the 5 EMA, the Nifty moved towards the Fib61x (@4868) - intra-day high today was 4856. The red channel top and the Fib 61x are key resistances to Nifty, which along with world markets is currently green. On the 'Weekly Chart' shown here, Nifty is currently above the 200 DMA ..as the Bulls would say, touch wood!