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Sunday, September 15, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls go up to a H&S :- Week: 09 September to 13 September: 2013.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 13 Sept'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 13 Sept'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from July'2013, onward - as on 13 Sept'13




Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Bullish Harami on the Medium Term Chart, develops into a 'Three  Inside Up' as studied last week #W1.
  • Last Two Weekly candles were 'Opening White Marubozus' and the current form of the Monthly Candle is a Bullish Marubozu.
  • Last Week's candle lines up to form the right shoulder of a Bearish 'Head &Shoulder' Pattern #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index closes above the 13 SMA on the Week Channel #W1 which was resistance for Bulls last week.
  • The Long Term 5 EMA remains support for the Bulls on the way down  #M1.
  • Index butting into the Day Channel Top which is resistance #D1.
Moving Averages:  
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA stay crossed Bullishly on the EOD charts #D1.
  • On the EOW - 5 EMA and 13 SMA touch and deflect Bullishly #W1. 
  • Index keeps above the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1.
Indicators:
  • RSI 13 surges above the 50 mark - RSI crosses above the MA #W2.
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 heading for the over-bought zone  #D2.
  • Oscillator remains below the over-bought, after the August Close #M2.

Wrap:
Bulls get the Short Term Screen too - Bears fight to keep the Day Channel from cracking #D1. 



Looking forward into the next Week:


Patterns:
  • On the Medium Term Chart the 'Three  Inside Up' was studied using links from herehere or elsewhere.
  • The Last two candles on the Weekly Charts are bullish 'Opening White Marubozus' and they are worth a study here, here or anywhere
  • Bearish 'Head and Shoulder' Chart Pattern (study here, here or happy hunting) would worry the Bulls #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • 34 MVWAP on the Short Term Chart is the nearest Support for the Bulls, while the Channel Top #D1 is resistance.
  • Beyond these the 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace #M1 - is the next major support and the Last All Time High is the resistance seen, #M1.
Moving Averages:
  • Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
  • Staying above the 13 SMA on the Week Charts #W1 important for Bulls.
Indicators:
  • Oscillator #M2 keeping below oversold favors the Bears.
  • RSI staying above its MA will work for the Bulls #W1

Wrap:
Bulls see the 'Marubozus' and the 'Three Inside Up' #W1, continuing the up-move - Bears would love a H&S #W1.



CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Checkmate :- Week: 09 September to 13 September: 2013.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 13 Sept'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 13 Sept'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Apr' 2013, onward - as on 13 Sept'13





Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

  • The two Takuri Weeks we had seen here and here - give the Bulls another 'Green Weekly candle' #3.
  • Volume for the up-move is uninspiring.
Support & Resistance:
  • 200 SMA on the EOD was the support the Bulls kept tenaciously above, last week #5. 
  • 5915, the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' #5 was the resistance the Bulls could not close above, all last week.
  • Checkmate for most of last week - as the Index remained between above levels.
Moving Averages:
  • EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bearishly in a Death Cross #5. 
  • EOM - Index closes above the 13 SMA #1, but the 5 EMA and 13 SMA stay Bearishly Crossed - Bearish overhang remains.
  • EOW - 5 EMA and 13 SMA poised to deflect bearishly or cross Bullishly #3. 
Indicators:
  • Indicator #2 on the Month charts show Bulls above the mid-point @ mid-month.
  • STS #4 clears resistance.
  • MACD above the zero line - Histogram tick down #6.

Wrap:
After running into the Takuri Line twice, Bulls clear the 50 SMA & 200 SMA...




Looking Forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

  • The Double Takuri Line's effect #3 studied earlier (here and here) near end.
Support & Resistance:
  • The EOD Chart shows the Bulls breaking out of the Day Channel. Throw Back to the Channel Top in Progress #5.
  • The 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' (5915) is the resistance the Bulls need to clear #5.
  • 200 SMA on the EOD is the critical Support for Bulls #5.
Moving Averages:
  • 200 SMA and 50 SMA on the Day Charts remaining Bearishly Crossed #5, keeps the Bulls under pressure. 
  • 13 SMA and 5 EMA on the Medium Term #3 can see a Cross or deflection - Week Number to watch 5885. 
  • Bear overhang of the Long Term #1, breaks with the 5 EMA and 13 SMA crossing Bullishly - magic number Bulls need to clear in Sept'13 is 6016.
 Indicators:
  • MACD remaining above zero #6 - critical for Bulls to stay in the game.

Wrap:
Bears desperate to hold 5915. Current Bull run remains alive, above the 200 SMA.