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Sunday, September 1, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 26 August to 30 August: 2013 - Bears Hold Down



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 30 Aug'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 30 Aug'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from July'2013, onward - as on 30 Aug'13



Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • The 'Three Inside Down' that we studied  on the weekly charts takes Index lower - Bears get a Red Week #W1 and Month #M1..
Support & Resistance:
  • Index had the 13 SMA on the Week Channel #W1 as resistance for Bulls on the upside.
  • The 5 EMA was support for the Bulls on the way down  #M1.
Moving Averages:  
  • Index Closes the week below the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1.
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA remain crossed bearishly on the EOD charts #D1.
  • On the EOW - 5 EMA and 13 SMA look poised for a bearish cross #W1. 
  • Index keeps above the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1.
Indicators:
  • RSI 13 peeks above the 50 mark - MA yet to cross the RSI #W2.
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 reaches the over-sold  #D2.
  • Oscillator dips below the over-bought, for the Month Close #M2.


Bears retain control of the Short Term Screen. Nudging towards control of the Medium Term too..




Looking forward into the next Week:


Patterns:
Support & Resistance:
  • 13 SMA on the Medium Term Chart is the next resistance for the Bulls, while the 34 MVWAP, #W1 is the Support..
  • Beyond these the 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace #M1 - is the next major support and the Last All Time High is the resistance seen #M1.
Moving Averages:
  • Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
  • 5 EMA & 13 SMA  on the Medium Term Charts #W1 -  poised to cross Bearishly - to be watched.
  • Staying below the 13 SMA on the Week Charts - EOW #W1 important for Bears.
Indicators:
  • Oscillator #M2 keeping below oversold favors the Bears.
  • RSI crossing above its MA will work for the Bulls #W1



Bears look to the 'Three Inside Down' #W1 giving more gains, Bulls look to get above the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1.




CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 26 August to 30 August: 2013 - Takuri, Once More..



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 30 Aug'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 30 Aug'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Apr' 2013, onward - as on 30 Aug'13




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

  • On the Medium Term EOW #3, the 'High Wave' Candle studied few weeks ago, gives the Bears another Takuri Week, after a volatile Month Close.
Support & Resistance:
  • The 50% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' stands again last week  #5.
  • Index after cracking the Day Channel and pulling back to its bottom #5 exactly last week - repeats performance this week too. 
  • The 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace of the 2008 Low to the All time High #3 - supports the Weekly close again.
Moving Averages:
  • 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bearishly in a Death Cross #5. 
  • 200 SMA on the Medium Term #3 - holds the Index in closing, for the second week running..
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA cross bearishly #1, giving the Bears the Long Term Screen..
Indicators:
  • 'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 on the long term charts show Bulls slipping below the center line for the Month close.
  • MACD Histograms diverge positive relative to price again,  MACD and its MA poised for a cross #6.
  • STS #4 stays down after diving into the oversold after 18 odd months.



Bears ride the 'High Wave' #3 to a Death Cross #5, get a 700+ point fall and run into the Takuri Line twice...




Looking Forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

Support & Resistance:
  • The day channel bottom #5 is again the resistance - for the Bulls.
  • The 50% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' remains support for the Bulls like in last week #5.
Moving Averages:
  • 200 SMA and 50 SMA on the Day Charts remaining Bearishly Crossed #5, keeps the Bulls under pressure. 
  • 200 SMA on the EOW - to be watched for failure.
  • 13 SMA and 5 EMA on the Short Term #5 seem to want a Bullish Cross.
 Indicators:
  • STS remaining in the over-sold zone - critical for Bears to retain the Medium Term.



Bulls would love a Golden Cross #5 -  Bears hope to stay below the EOD Channel bottom #5.






The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 26 August to 30 August - 2013 - Kijun Sen touch



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 30 Aug'13


Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)

Bears close the Index below the Kijun Sen last week #2..
Chikou Span even closer to the Price line #1.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen is steady #3.


Bears hold the Index below the Tenkan Sen and just about manage a cross below the Kijun Sen...




Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bulls need to get index above the Tenkan Sen, to get back the advantage #2.
Bears  keep the advantage staying below the Kijun Sen  #3.
Chikou Span's proximity to Price line important - to be watched for cross or deflection #1.  
Widening gap between the Senkou Span A&B is a concern area for Bears. 


Bears look at keeping their advantage .... Bulls seek to get back above the Tenkan Sen #2.




BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 26 August to 30 August - 2013 - Attraction and Repulsion



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 30 Aug'13


Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku, can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)

Flat Kumo #3 continues to hold the Index - even as Bulls attempt a bounce off it. 
Index meets the Flat Senoku Span #3 again last week.
Chikou Span slips further down- parallel and close to the price line #1.
Bearish Senoku Span Cross - near #4.


Bears stay attracted to the Flat Senkou Span B #3 see study done 7 weeks ago. Bulls attempt a repulsion Bounce. 




Looking Forward into the next Week:

Chikou Span moving down parallel to price line, in close enough proximity to Bullishly break into it #1.
Recross of the Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen is the next Bull hope #2.
Bulls continue to attempt a bounce off the Flat Senoku Span B to get out of the Kumo. #3.
Bears would want to see the Bearish Senoku Span Cross #4 and a Bearish Kumo Break out #3.


Bulls look to bounce out of the Kumo with a Chikou Span Cross - Bears eye the Bearish Senoku Span Cross and Kumo Break out - down below - for more honey  - #4 ...