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Monday, August 24, 2015

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Marubozu - Week 4 of August 2015.














Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • High Wave on the Weekly charts the previous week, is followed by resolution of 2095 , with Bulls holding above this level earlier in the week. Once Bears closed below 2095, it was a a massive crash to a new low for this year, with a Weekly 'Closing Black Marubozu' #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Support finally came with a close near 1978 (the point where the 5 EMA and 13 SMA cross Bearishly on the Month Charts #M1). Resistance for the Bears was our mark 2095
Moving Averages:  
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on all screens, show a bearish cross.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13, after meandering in the middle of the range for a year #W2, finally reaches the oversold.  

    Wrap:
    Bears after a futile break below the 200 SMA, the previous week #D1, returned this week, to crash the index below all channels and MAs we track. 
    Bulls hung out above out mark 2095, earlier in the week - but with a straight fall to 1971, they have lost the plot.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Closing Black Marubozu, on the Medium Term Charts is active (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #W1.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • MVWAP 34 on the long term screen (around 1850) #M1 is the support that Bulls want to stay above. Index has resistance at the previous Weekly Channel bottom line (Orange) #W1. 
    Moving Averages:
    • On the EOM, the 5 EMA and the 13 SMA, will maintain a Bullish Cross, if this month closes above 1978 #W1,
    Indicators:
    • TSI touches the 50% retrace #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls want life back inside the Week Channel #W1
    Bears look to drive down to the monthly MVWAP34 #M1.


    Europe CAC 40 - Ichimoku Study - Bear Cross - Week 4 of August 2015.







    Learning from the Earlier Study: 
    (click here for the previous post)

    A month after the Bearish Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen Cross, Bears finally cross below these lines #W2.

    Chikou Span, crosses below the Price line #W1.
    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B, steady #W3.
    Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrow and steady #W3.


    Wrap: 

    Bulls losing the strong supports of last week, hold the fall well above the Kumo #W2. 

    Bears finally take advantage of the Bearish Cross of the Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen #W2,, with a massive red week, and close below these lines

    Looking Forward into this Week:



    Chikou Span is now below the Price line (Its called a 'Weak Bearish cross because it occurred when the index was Bullish i,e above the Kumo) #W1.
    Index finally closing below the Kijun Sen & Tenkan Sen, gives the Bears the impetus #W2.
    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B is wide, making a thick Kumo - and a strong future support #W3.
    The narrow gap between the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen, good for Bulls, as a re-cross is easier #W2.



    Wrap:

    Finally  taking advantage of the Bearish Cross of the Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen #W2, with two massive red weeks, the next Bear plan is to reach the Kumo.
    Bulls see the Kumo as the next major support from where they can aim for the Tenkan Sen #W2.

    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bear Shoulder - Week 4 of August 2015.











     


    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

     

    Patterns:
    • Head & Shoulder formation, that we studied for the last two weeks,  continues as a possibility #W1. Bears attempting the 'Right Shoulder' to 'Neckline' fall now.
    Support & Resistance:
    • The Index takes support well above the August Pivot's S2 and the mid-line of the Month Channel #M1 remained untouched last week.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA, are crossed bearishly only on the Day Screen as of last week's close #D1.
    Indicators:
    • On the Day chart, MACD and the histogram are below zero #D2.

    Wrap:

    Bears retain control of the Day Screen, and took the index to near the month pivot's S2 #M1, last week.
    Bulls close the week below S1 on the monthly Pivot #M1, but with a tentative hold on the Medium Term and Long Term Screens.





    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • H&S pattern on the Day Chart is still possibility worth a study #D1 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) - Neckline for activation of the pattern is currently around 7900.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Bulls have support at the S2 of the Monthly Pivot #M1, Resistance is at the 5 EMA on the Medium Term Screen (8444) #W1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The Death Cross is active as long as the 50 SMA stays below the 200 SMA - gap between these MAs, is increasing #D1.
    • The critical 5 EMA & 13 SMA, on the Week Screen would cross bearishly if the index closes below 8228 this week #W1.
    Indicators:
    • Bears hope that the STS would stay crossed below its MA, and reach the oversold, this week #W2.


    Wrap :
    Bulls, wish for life above 8228 and hope to colour the Month Candle green, this week #M1.
    Bears gaining momentum, aim to reach the Neckline (7900) as studied above #W1.



    China SSEC - Ichimoku Study - Bears Answer - Week 4 of August 2015.






    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: 
    (click here for the previous post)

    Last week's Bear prayer for a Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen cross with a big red week, gets answered #W2.
    Chikou Span within touching distance of the Price line #W1.
    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B  narrows #W3.



    Wrap: 
    Alert bears see the Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, cross Bearishly at week start, and celebrate with a huge red candle #W2.
    Bulls catch up with some rear guard action and defend the last low #W2.


    Looking Forward into this Week:



    Index closing below the Kijun Sen (its called a 'weak bearish signal' as it occurred when the index was Bullish i,e. above the Kumo) works again for the Bears #W2.
    Bears need to get the Chikou Span below the Price line, to get dominance of this screen #W1. 
    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B staying wide, makes a thick Kumo and a strong support for the Bulls, when they get there #W3.



    Wrap:

    Getting back above the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen #W2, with a bounce by the Chikou Span, off the Price line #W1, is the priority for Bulls.
    Bearish cross of the Chikou Span #W1 with the Price line, plus a lower low, is what the Bears plan to do.