Saturday, March 31, 2012

The Dow 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 26 March to 30 March 2012


Quick Reference : 
The Tenkan Sen - red line
The Kijun Sen - blue line
The Chikou Span - purple line
The Senkou Span A - black line
The Senkou Span B - grey line
The Kumo - grey shaded area.


Signals studied in the past few weeks on DJI - Week Chart (EOW) in brief: For details see here and here.

Senkou Span Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal
Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal
Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal
Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal
The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal



DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 30 March 2012  
Ichimoku Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW of the DJI 30:
We have summarized the studies of the past few weeks, on the EOW and its shown, above the chart.
Th Index is in Bull Mode.
This weeks input, seems to be, that the last three candles, show a flat trajectory. 
The Tenkan San is flat as is the Kijun Sen.
The coming week however, should see some action..
To get a finer picture, we have added a EOD study as below...



DJI 30 - End of Day Chart - 30 March 2012  
Ichimoku Short Term View (or) Day Chart (or) EOD of the DJI 30:
The Index was in Bull Mode on this chart. The last two candles show that.... 
a) the Price line has taken support on the Kijun Sen (and MVWAP) and 
b) crossed the Tenkan Sen. 
This continues the Mode as Bullish. 
On the flip side are the obvious divergences on the Oscillator.

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 26 March to 30 March, 2012 - Déjà vu !

Recap: 
The Bulls moved the index up last week, keeping the momentum with them. The Bears, while finishing the week with their last straw in hand, did lose out on the third Bearish Harami in the last two years (see EOW). To answer the question asked last weekend (click here to go to post), Bulls say, Déjà vu !



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - 30 March 2012  
Long Term View (or) Month Chart with closing prices of each month in a line (or) EOM:
1,456 is the SP 500 reading that should take out the Channel's red Top line in April. Going by the current state of health, this chart looks good for that.



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - 30 March 2012 
Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 Week's price action (or) EOW:
We saw that the third time in a row the Bulls bought into the Bearish Harami on the chart above. The 5 EMA acted as take off point for Bulls this week. The RSI being just below the 3 MA, is the only saving grace for the Bears, their straw in hand, as they go into next week and month. 



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) - 30 March  2012  
Short Term View (or) Day Chart, each candle is 1 Day's price action (or) EOD:
SP 500 ended above all the short term MAs, that we study, as above. The Index edged down, and closed below our yellow day Channel's middle line. Rate of climb, is therefore a tad down.



Looking Forward: 
The Bears would seek to press home their mild advantages, as studied in the EOW and EOD. The Bulls are on a roll, and only getting knocked below the Yellow Day channel, would put them in a spot of bother. So one watches the short term MAs - EMA 5, EMA 10 and SMA 13 with a careful eye in the coming week.

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

EOD Technical Analysis, CNX Nifty - 28 March 2012 - Pull back to Channel Bottom..

Nifty - End of Day - 28 March  2012     
Our weekend take (click here for post) was that the Nifty would take support at the 200 DMA if it broke below channel bottom...Nifty has stayed 25 odd points above the 200 DMA after breaking the channel bottom - green line.

The index also pulled back to the green line and fell again. Going forward, the immediate range to break is the 200 DMA to 5 EMA. 

Sunday, March 25, 2012

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 19 March to 23 March, 2012 - Channel bottom..

Recap: 
Last week (posted here), we figured that the US and European markets would fall, and this would put pressure on Indian markets. 
They did fall and we got red candles, on the S&P and Nifty, last week. 
We also tracked the market's moves with intra week, EOD updates. 
The Nifty ended below the crucial 34 EMA on the EOD charts. 
Where to next?



Nifty - End of Month Chart - 23 M arch 2012   
CNX Nifty 50 - Month Chart (each candle is 1 Month's price action): Long Term
This month's red candle is above the 5 EMA and is arguing with the 13 SMA, we find that the Month chart still presents a positive picture.
The developing 'Bearish Harami' on the last two candles, is the only small worry for the Bull.



Nifty - End of Week Chart - 23 March  2012  
CNX Nifty 50 - Week Chart (each candle is 1 Week's price action): Medium Term
A fifth red candle happened last week. 
The support was again near the rising 34 EMA. 
After a lower High in the previous week's Candle, we have a higher Low with last week's candle. 
Bulls can look for some relief staying above the 34 EMA (EOW).



Nifty - End of Day - 23 March  2012  
CNX Nifty 50 - Day/EOD Chart (closing prices of each Day in a line): Short Term
We posted in our last EOD analysis (here) that we were at channel bottom. 
As one can see, the Nifty seems to be taking support at the green line in the chart above. 
The last touch and go (5 EMA/13 SMA) resulted in the bearish crossover continuing. 
We are still below the 34 EMA.
The falling 34 EMA is above the 200 DMA.



Looking Forward: 
Staying above our channel bottom, the Nifty would aim for the wall at 5484. 
If the bottom fails, the next support is the 200 DMA, as marked. 
Settlement weeks usually produce some solid 'action time'. 
After 5 red weeks, if a relief rally is coming up, this is one such time.

The BSE Sensex 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 19 March to 23 March 2012 - Relief Green?

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart - 23  March 2012  
Quick Reference : 
The Tenkan Sen - red line
The Kijun Sen - blue line
The Chikou Span - purple line
The Senkou Span A - black line
The Senkou Span B - grey line
The Kumo - grey shaded area.

Recent Signals : Last week (click here) and Previous Week (click here)


We observed last week that the price had gravitated towards the flat Kumo (Senkou Span B) since Jan'2012, to reach its state of equilibrium. 
The space where we have this flat Span B is shown with 'H'. 
Kumo resistance has sent the price down and out of the cloud. 
As observed last week, the resistance of the last week's attempt (Senkou Span A), did send the price back again this week.
Another attempt at the Senkou Span B is expected within the width of 'H'. 
Price breaching the Tenkan Sen (red) is the first indication, of trouble for the above attempt. 
As one can see at  'I' the price has fallen below the red line. 
Staying above the Kijun Sen (blue), breaking above the red line and the 'Black' Senkou Span A are the critical tasks for the Bulls. 
In the mean time - the mood is cloudy for the Bulls and the Bears have all the power - just as it was in the last two weekly studies. 
About time we saw some 'relief green'.

Saturday, March 24, 2012

The Dow 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 19 March to 23 March 2012 - Flat lies the Kumo.

DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 23 March 2012  

Quick Reference : 
The Tenkan Sen - red line
The Kijun Sen - blue line
The Chikou Span - purple line
The Senkou Span A - black line
The Senkou Span B - grey line
The Kumo - grey shaded area.


Recent Signals : Last week (click here) and Previous Week (click here)


We concluded our study last week, with the note that the Flat Kumo (Senkou Span B), should start attracting the Price downwards, in the weeks to come. We used the the signals marked 'F' and 'G'. Incidentally last week's candle is red.


Another input is that the Kijun Sen (blue) has gone flat for the last two candles (see H above). As one would have studied in the reading material on Ichimoku, this flat nature implies lack of momentum, flat trend and state of equilibrium which also draws the price to itself (like the Flat Kumo).


Price breaching the Tenkan Sen (red) is the first indication, we would get of a correction. This does not look like happening, anytime too soon.

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 19 March to 23 March, 2012 - Déjà vu ?

Recap: Last week (post here) we called a 'correction' and got it. While the quantum of the correction may not be something to Tom Tom about, the Bears would have woken up from their 5 week Slumber. Was our risky call really brave, or were we plain nuts? Lets study the charts updated with last week's data, to find out.



S&P 500 - End of Month Chart - 23 March 2012  
S&P 500 - Month Chart (closing prices of each month in a line): The long term chart looks good, and in Bull mode. Currently nosing above last year's high, there is no major divergence of price line with the indicator below, as of now. Let's get closer to the action, as below.



S&P 500 - End of Week Chart - 23March 2012 
S&P 500 - Week Chart (each candle is 1 Week's price action): The white channel lines define the Week's channel that we follow, and the 'mode' is Bull here also. This medium term chart give us feeling of  'Déjà vu'. Notice the candle sets, that the three arrows point to. All Bearish Haramis and the first two were bought into, by the Bulls. We are discussing the fate of  the third set. One should have a re-look at how to trade this pattern (we studied it here last). 



S&P 500 - End of Day Chart - 23 March  2012  
S&P 500 - Day (EOD) Chart (each candle is 1 Day's price action): The short term charts as above, have a change in orientation of the yellow 'Day Channel lines' due to last week's price action. This chart unlike the two above are in 'neutral mode'. Price touched the middle of the Week Channel (white) and Corrected to close below the 5 EMA.


Looking Forward: Short term indicator's pointing down, does not make it a 'Correction' of substantial nature.  However before writing off our Bear Call of last weekend, as mere pause, we should look at the three arrows on the Week Chart above. Will the Bulls say 'Déjà vu' or do the Bears get third time 'Lucky' ?

Thursday, March 22, 2012

EOD Technical Analysis, CNX Nifty - 22 March 2012 - Channel Bottom!

Nifty - End of Day - 22 March  2012     
In our analysis of the US market last weekend (see end of post here) we concluded that we would anticipate a Correction. In our study on Nifty (see end of post here) last weekend we said that since US & Europe could correct, Indian markets would be under pressure to go Bull. World markets corrected and India too, fell today.

Yesterday, we observed that we were a nudge away from the green. The 5 EMA and 13 SMA on our EOD charts were showing a possible 'touch and go'. Circled area (from above) is zoomed (below) with a red arrow showing the touch. Bullish for the morning session, after Europe opened, we saw the 5 go below the 13 and the Nifty fell by 100 points. So one observes, that these 'touch and go' scenarios produce great Bullish and Bearish moves, simply because of punters positioning themselves too early, anticipating a crossover and then covering in a panic !

Nifty - Zoom in for 5 EMA & 13 SMA 'Touch and go' action from chart above

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

EOD Technical Analysis, CNX Nifty - 21 March 2012 - Yo Yo @ 34

Nifty - End of Day - 21 March  2012    
On Monday the Nifty stayed below the 5 EMA and crashed after tripping on the 34 EMA - then after a day below it - today the Nifty shot above the 34 EMA and thereafter the 5 EMA. 

Keen tussle, Bulls are in the Neutral zone, a nudge would send them into the green, to add to the fun, the 5 &13 EMAs are again poised for a possible touch and go

Monday, March 19, 2012

EOD Technical Analysis, CNX Nifty - 19 March 2012 - Bingo!

Nifty - End of Day - 19 March  2012   
We concluded last weekend that the 34 EMA should be held by the Bulls to stage a comeback (see last two sections of post here). By the close of the third hour of trade the Nifty had fallen below the 34 EMA (5305) and thereon crashed by 60 odd points. Alert Bears should have enjoyed the action.

The channel bottom (green line) and our range bottom (200 DMA) beckon even as the 5/13 EMA cross stands at touch and go....touch and go (if the cross fails) produce the best bounce backs....the current hope for the Bulls.

Sunday, March 18, 2012

The BSE Sensex 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 12 March to 16 March 2012 - Cloudy Days ahead..

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart - 16 March 2012 
All recent signals are posted here (last week's post). Please read up on them, along with the Write up mentioned in the 'Preamble', especially if you are a new to this study.

We analyzed the Flat Kumo on the DJI30 (here). We shall do the Sensex, the same favor. After all, we are already halfway into flat zone - see 'H'. As in the DJI study we notice that the Senkou Span B (grey line) appears flat starting around Dec'11 and after a break in the zone marked 'H'.

The same principle of attraction to equilibrium that we read in the DJI study seems to have pulled the Sensex up and looks like this can continue. The Index, gets into the Kumo (cloud) if it moves up any more, and we need to see if the resistance of the last rise, can be cracked this time. 

The M-VWAP gave us a good insight last week and we shall follow the 34 period M-VWAP on this study. If interested do read up on same here or on other resources.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 12 March to 16 March, 2012 - Bear Hug.

Recap: With the Nifty moving above our mark for Monday last - of 5343, all the way to the Wall at 5484, we had the up move of the week. Thereafter as anticipated (see Looking Forward and EOD here) the Wall sent the Index back towards the 200 DMA. Nifty took support on the 34 EMA (EOD). After the expected volatility of the Budget, where to now?




Nifty - End of Month Chart - 16 M arch 2012 
CNX Nifty 50 - Month Chart (each candle is 1 Month's price action): Still in a good place for bulls as they anticipate the 5 EMA crossing over the 13 EMA as a confirmation of long term Bull trend. This is in addition to the 34 EMA over the 200 DMA and the Golden Cross which are already on (EOD). Currently, however this month's candle is in line to form a Bearish Harami.




Nifty - End of Week Chart - 16 March  2012 
CNX Nifty 50 - Week Chart (each candle is 1 Week's price action): The Bulls have not been able to get a single green week after bouncing back from our channel top line (red), 4 weeks ago. Post the bounce off the 34 EMA the week before, it has shown some intent to give this bugbear another shot. 




Nifty - End of Day - 16 March  2012 
CNX Nifty 50 - Day/EOD Chart (closing prices of each Day in a line): Last week's action was in the range we expected. Keeping above the 34 EMA another shot at the Wall (5484) is in order. If it stays below the 5 EMA however, a bearish cross of the 5/13 EMAs would again send it on a tail spin. So one watches these levels.



Looking Forward: With US and Europe in the oversold zone looking at a correction for health reasons, the Indian market would have to swim against the tide to make an up move. 34 EMA on the EOD and the Wall are important levels. Intra Week updates shall be up.

The Dow 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 12 March to 16 March 2012 - Gravity and Equilibrium.

DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 16 March 2012 
Our previous Study with the 'Cloud' (post here) proclaimed that the 'Bulls have it all'. And yes, they did decisively surpass, last year's high, as if to emphasis the point. 

Please read previous study, for ALL the signals/indications that the Cloud has thrown up  recently. As you would have read in our first Ichimoku post's reading material, Ichimoku is all about using the messages from multiple signals, not just the latest.

This weekend we focus on one aspect of the Cloud - the 'FLAT Kumo'. As you can see -  marked 'G' in the chart, the Senkou Span B (grey line) appears flat from now on..

We know that the SENKOU SPAN B is the (HIGHEST HIGH + LOWEST LOW)/2 for the past 52 periods time-shifted forwards (into the future) 26 periods. Look at 'F', a trend less time, which fits the above, as the formula would produce a flat line just about now. 

The Flat Span implies Equilibrium and because Price loves to get back to equilibrium,  the flat senkou span B  becomes strong attractor of the price-line towards it. 

One can see the Flat Senkou Span B, doing exactly this, during Dec'11. 

Could be early times for that to happen, but one likes to be in the know. Why else study?

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 12 March to 16 March, 2012 - Sedate Highs..

Recap: By the end of last week, (see Looking Forward) we saw the SP500 on Bull mode, but for the 5/13 EMA cross. Early this week the Bulls took care of that minor detail, and moved from the bottom end of their channel, (see EOD) to the exact top end...where despite crossing last year's high, the Bulls hesitate...lets find out why..



S&P 500 - End of Month Chart - 16 March 2012 
S&P 500 - Month Chart (closing prices of each month in a line): The Price line here, looks like its making a steady progress, to the red channel top. Above all short term EMAs, and with a decent rate of climb, this view looks good for the Bulls. Lets get closer, with the chart below.



S&P 500 - End of Week Chart - 16 March 2012 
S&P 500 - Week Chart (each candle is 1 Week's price action): Sticking to the bottom of our weekly channel's center line, steadfastly, for a long time now.. the Index is again in a position of strength. The only thing going for the Bears, would be the clear divergence between the price and the Histogram below it. So will the price make it to the channel top? Zoom in below..



S&P 500 - End of Day Chart - 16 March  2012 
S&P 500 - Day (EOD) Chart (each candle is 1 Day's price action): With a dedication almost boring, the Index is stuck to the Day Channel's top line, a mite below the Weekly channel's center line, for ages now. If this continues, both Bulls and Bears will fall asleep. Nah! Just kidding :). Divergences are becoming persistently loud here, as one can see from the STS Indicator below. 



Looking Forward: A decent correction looks like the best medicine for a comatose Bear and Tired Bull. Problem is, oversold Indices can go on & on, in the same track, for a long long time. However lets get brave and make a risky call....Correction time :)

Thursday, March 15, 2012

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 15 March 2012 - The Wall stands firm....

Nifty - End of Day - 15 March  2012  
The Wall did what Walls do best...STOP....after stopping at the wall yesterday, the Nifty dived 100 points today. This was in line with our weekend surmise (see end of post here) - the trader got her/his moves, with the volatility and the price movements, which were in the zone marked last weekend. 

Bulls have the long term 34 EMA over 200 DMA  cross and the short term 5 EMA over 13 SMA cross which are intact, going for them. Bulls have also closed today, just in the neutral zone (not red). Notice the Volume and MACD action. Have fun tommorow..

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 14 March 2012 - At the Wall..

Nifty - End of Day - 14 March  2012 
We concluded our study last weekend (see last two sections of study here) with the note that Bulls would smile above 5343 for Monday - with the Index closing at 5360, bulls were happy to do so. They continued to do this, all the way to the wall (5484) which has stopped the Bulls (EOD today - 5464) ahead of crucial Fundamental inputs (union Budget). The 5 EMA is above the 13 SMA too.

Meanwhile in our Ichimoku Study (here) as we wished in point 'F', the candle has indeed moved into the Kumo...we shall visit it, this weekend.


Sunday, March 11, 2012

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen Analysis - Week: 05 March to 09 March 2012 - Poised !

Recap: The Nifty drifted below the 34 EMA on the EOD last week (post here)- bounced off the 200 DMA (post here) and is just in the Neutral zone as of  last weekend. The EOW chart also shows a precise take off from the 34 EMA on the weekly charts. Overall our note that the 34 EMA and 200 DMA zone, would hold the bears, rang true.



Nifty - End of Month Chart - 09 M arch 2012
CNX Nifty 50 - Month Chart (each candle is 1 month): Taking support on the 5 EMA the index has closed above the 13 SMA. We now zoom into the area marked with a blue square for a closer look..below.



Nifty - End of Week Chart - 09 March  2012
CNX Nifty 50 - Week Chart (each candle is 1 week): With a clinical take off from the 34 EMA (see blue oval) the Index almost formed a Doji this week. Bulls would have been confident going into Budget week if the close were above the 5 EMA. The STS shows the action of the resistance line. We now magnify the portion in the Blue square with the chart below.



Nifty - End of Day - 09 March  2012
CNX Nifty 50 - EOD Chart (line chart of close prices):  The closing price disguises the action on Wednesday where the Nifty bounced off the 200 DMA like a vetran! The 5 EMA and the 35 EMA form a touch and go (Bullish) as of now. Bullish cross of the 5 EMA above the 13 EMA should be the precursor for the next Bull move. Bulls Smile above 5343 for Monday and Laugh above 5484 (Wall) for the month. 



Looking Forward: World markets (US, Europe) are largely back in the green. India as seen in the previous study is not is the best of places after the recent fall.  With the anticipated volatility, our range on the EOD chart should give some good trading moves. Trending times are below the 200 DMA or above the Wall.

The BSE Sensex 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 05 March to 09 March 2012 - Bears have it all.

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart - 09 March 2012

Please read 'Preamble' from here. We are replacing the Ichimoku Study on the Month chart with this Weekly Study.

The BSE Sensex 30 - Ichimoku - End of Week Study.

A: Senkou Span Cross: On the chart the grey cloud is the Kumo. Notice that the cloud's borders have black and grey lines - and they cross each other at the point marked by 'a'. So the Senkou span A (black line) crosses the Senkou span B (grey line) from the top down, and that makes it a 'Bearish Cross'. 
The effect of this Cross was felt 26 weeks before the cross, at the candle marked by 'A' - as this candle is below the Kumo we have a 'Strong Senkou span Bearish Cross' 
The Index has fallen from 18500 odd to 15500 after this signal was felt at 'A'


B: Chikou Span Cross: The purple line is called the Chikou Span. At the point marked by 'b' it crosses through the price curve from the bottom up, this is a bullish signal or buy. 
The effect of this cross is felt 26 weeks after the cross at the candle marked by 'B' - however as this candle is below the Kumo we have a 'Weak Buy on Chikou span Cross'.
We notice that the index moves up a couple of candles, faces resistance at the Kumo and then falls - after the event at candle 'B'.  


C: The kijun sen cross signal is given when price crosses over the kijun sen(blue line). If it crosses the price curve from the bottom up, then it is a bullish signal. A weak kijun sen cross Buy signal takes place when a bullish cross happens below the kumo. We have a weak Bullish cross.


D: The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross happens when the tenkan sen crosses over the kijun sen. If the tenkan sen crosses above the kijun sen, then it is a bullish signal. A weak tenkan sen/kijun sen cross Buy signal takes place when a bullish cross happens below the kumo. We have a weak Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross.


E: The price bounced back from inside the Kumo (grey cloud) and broke out below it.


Bears seem to have it all going for them as above.


F: The last input - we see that the price just about took support on the 'Tenkan sen (red line)'. If it now moves back into the Kumo and breaks out above it... the Long term Bull will smile. 
Also see the action of Price on the M VWAP at the last candle.

Saturday, March 10, 2012

The Dow 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 05 March to 09 March 2012 - Bulls have it all.


Preamble:
We shall do a Ichimoku study to complement our 'Triple Screen Technical Analysis' of the US markets -  Taking the 'weekly' time frame may be experimental but lets look at the facts..

The standard settings for an Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart are 9,26,52 and are used on EOD charts.  When Ichimoku was created back in the 1930s, a trading week was 6 days long. So we have one and a half week, one month, and two months. Now that the trading week is 5 days, we can use 7, 22, and 44 instead.

However, sticking to the standard settings (as the majority still use them) one notices that there is a case for 'End of Week' Charts where each candle is one week's data. There are 52 weeks in a year, 26 weeks form two quarters and 9 weeks equal about 2 months. We have a longer term view - lets check if that works out in the days to come.

One needs to read up on Ichimoku (see our first post here to start off) and use the link below, as I use the same color code. There are many more studies out there, feel free and get a good one.




DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 09 March 2012
The Dow Jones Industrial Average 30 - Ichimoku - End of Week Study.

A: See the green 'a' and 'A' and the green line. 'a' is the 'Senkou Span Cross'. If the senkou span A (black line) crosses the senkou span B (grey line) from the bottom up, then it is a bullish signal. 26 weeks before the cross - 'A' at the green line shows the relevant candle - as you would have read by now - A neutral senkou span cross signal takes place when the price curve is inside the kumo at the time of the senkou span cross. We have a Neutral Bullish Cross.

B: See the orange 'b' and 'B' and orange line. 'b' is the 'Chikou Span Cross'. If the chikou span (purple line) crosses through the price curve from the bottom up, then it is a bullish signal. A strong chikou span cross Buy signal takes place when a bullish cross takes place and current price is above the kumo. See 'B' and candle at orange line - as the candle is above the 'kumo' we have a Strong Bullish signal.  

C: 'C' is a 'Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross'. A neutral tenkan sen (red line)/kijun sen (blue line) cross Buy signal takes place when a bullish cross happens within the kumo as seen.

D: 'D' is the 'Kumo Breakout'. The signal to go long in Kumo (grey cloud) breakout trading is when price closes above the prevailing kumo - as seen.

Bulls would enjoy the above.

E: The last input - we see that the price took support on the 'Tenkan sen(red line)'. One notes that price breaching the tenkan sen can give an early indication of a trend change .. maybe the Bear will get lucky some time soon.