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Monday, September 9, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls look inside to go up :- Week: 03 September to 06 September: 2013.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 06 Sept'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 06 Sept'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from July'2013, onward - as on 06 Sept'13




Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Bullish Harami forms on the Medium Term Charts #W1.
  • The 'Three Inside Down' that we studied  on the weekly charts gave the Bears 4% downside honey #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index closes at the 13 SMA on the Week Channel #W1 which was resistance for Bulls on the upside.
  • The Long Term 5 EMA was support for the Bulls on the way down  #M1.
Moving Averages:  
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA cross Bullishly on the EOD charts #D1.
  • On the EOW - 5 EMA and 13 SMA touch #W1. 
  • Index keeps above the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1.
Indicators:
  • RSI 13 peeks above the 50 mark - MA hugging the RSI #W2.
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 bounces from the over-sold  #D2.
  • Oscillator remains below the over-bought, after the August Close #M2.


Bulls bring the Short Term Screen to No Man's Land - Bears fight to keep the 13 SMA #W1. 



Looking forward into the next Week:


Patterns:
Support & Resistance:
  • 34 MVWAP on the Short Term Chart is the next resistance for the Bulls, while the 5  EMA #M1 is the Support..
  • Beyond these the 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace #M1 - is the next major support and the Last All Time High is the resistance seen, #M1.
Moving Averages:
  • Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
  • 5 EMA & 13 SMA  on the Medium Term Charts #W1 -  poised to deflect Bullishly or cross Bearishly by EOW - to be watched.
  • Closing above the 13 SMA on the Week Charts - EOW #W1 important for Bulls.
Indicators:
  • Oscillator #M2 keeping below oversold favors the Bears.
  • RSI emphatically crossing above its MA will work for the Bulls #W1



Bulls hope for a 'Three Inside Up' #W1, Bears wish for a Cross of the 5EMA and 13 SMA #W1.




CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Takuri Take Off :- Week: 02 September to 06 September: 2013.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 30 06 Sept'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 06 Sept'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Apr' 2013, onward - as on 06 Sept'13




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

  • The two Takuri Weeks we had seen here and here - give the Bulls a nice Take off #3.
  • On the EOW #3, the 'High Wave' Candle we studied earlier, gave the Bears a massive 20% profit, from top to bottom of the fall.
Support & Resistance:
  • The 50% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' stands again last week  #5.
  • The 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace of the 2008 Low to the All time High #3 - supports the Weekly close again.
  • 50 SMA on the EOD was the resistance the Bulls ran into last week #5 - after breaking through the previous EOD channel bottom.
Moving Averages:
  • 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bearishly in a Death Cross #5. 
  • 200 SMA on the Medium Term #3 - holds the Index in closing, for the third week running..
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA stay Bearishly Crossed #1, giving the Bears the Long Term Screen..
  • On the EOD 5 EMA and 13 SMA cross Bullishly #5.
Indicators:
  • 'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 on the long term charts show Bulls attempting to return to the positive.
  • STS #4 runs into resistance.



After running into the Takuri Line twice Bulls take off to the 50 SMA...




Looking Forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

  • The Double Takuri Line's effect #3 studied earlier (here and here) still persists..
Support & Resistance:
  • The new day channel shows the Bulls clearing the mid point. #5.
  • The 50% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' remains support for the Bulls like in last week #5.
Moving Averages:
  • 200 SMA and 50 SMA on the Day Charts remaining Bearishly Crossed #5, keeps the Bulls under pressure. 
  • 200 SMA on the EOW - to be watched for failure.
  • 13 SMA and 5 EMA on the Medium Term #3 next on watch list by the Bulls for a Cross.
 Indicators:
  • STS remaining below its resistance line - critical for Bears to stay in the game.



Bears desperate to get below the 200 SMA on the EOW #3 after three consecutive failures. Bulls want life above the 200 SMA on the EOD #5.