Sunday, April 1, 2012

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 26 March to 30 March, 2012 - Relief Green as we wanted..

Our view 'Looking Forward' last weekend (click for post), was 'After 5 red weeks, if a relief rally is coming up, this is one such time'
As the EOW chart below shows, we have a green candle for last week ! 
Intra Week, we saw the Nifty take support at the 200 DMA, and we suggested that the 5 EMA-200 DMA range had to break (click for post). 
Bears failed to crack the 200 DMA on Thursday, then the Bulls pushed above the 5 EMA, to color this week's candle green, on Friday
What next?

 CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 30 M arch 2012 
Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 Month's price action (or) EOM:
A Bearish Harami is in place, with the completed red candle of March. 
Lower volume for a red month, is Bullish.
Close above the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, that we track is also good for bulls.
Revision of Bearish Harami, at these links or elsewhere, is a good idea.

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 30 March  2012
Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 Week's price action (or) EOW:
Bulls closed with a green candle, above the 34 EMA
Support was at the Trend line shown in black, famous for being a 13 month Resistance, once.
An 'ok' Hammer is the closest we can describe the last candle as, here are some reads.

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 30 March  2012 
Short Term View (or) Day Chart, with closing prices of each day in a line (or) EOD:
The price has clearly closed below the channel bottom, and then come back, to close above it.
The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, are still in a bearish Cross.
The MACD is below the zero line, as is the Histogram.
Price has closed, above all the 'Moving Averages(MA)' we track on this screen.

Looking Forward: 
Currently the Index is neutral, across all three time frames.
Keeping above the Wall for this month (5180), & above the falling 34 EMA, Nifty stays Bullish.
Below the 200 DMA, if the bears manage to get there, Fib 61x is the next target.
The EOD chart of the Ichimoku study (Click) should be watched for the Senkou Span Cross.

The BSE Sensex 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 26 March to 30 March 2012 - and we got our green...

Quick Reference : 
The Tenkan Sen - red line
The Kijun Sen - blue line
The Chikou Span - purple line
The Senkou Span A - black line
The Senkou Span B - grey line
The Kumo - grey shaded area.

Signals studied in the past few weeks on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) in brief: For details see here and here.

Senkou Span Cross: Strong Bearish Signal
Chikou Span Cross: Weak Bullish Signal
The kijun sen cross: Weak Bullish Signal
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Weak Bullish Signal
The Flat Kumo: Bullish Signal

For the latest study click this link

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart - 30 March 2012  
Ichimoku Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW of the BSE 30:
Last week (click to see post) we felt it was time for some 'relief green' and we got it (see last candle above)
Price took support on the Kijun Sen (blue line) and MVWAP.
Price is nudging into the Kumo.
A Bullish Senkou Span Cross is a few weeks away.
Other signals given above the EOW chart, add to this study.
To see the finer details, we use the EOD chart below.

BSE 30 - End of Day Chart - 30 March 2012  
Ichimoku Short Term View (or) Day Chart (or) EOD of the BSE 30:
A Bearish Senkou Span Cross is nearly on - could touch and go too.
Price is in the Kumo.
Price has just crossed the Tenkan Sen, after being drawn down by the Flat Senkou Span B, and bouncing off it.
Resistance is the Kijun Sen and MVWAP.
Looks good for an up move, if the Senkou Cross is not Bearish.