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Monday, March 3, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bull Continuum - Week 1 of March 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 28 Feb'14


S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 28 Feb'14


S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Oct'2013, onward - as on 28 Feb'14



Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:

  • Bulls make a weekly 'Opening White Marubozu' near the ATH #W1. 
  • Month Screen shows a 'Deliberation Candle Pattern - 3 green candles' followed by the Jan and Feb'14 candles #M1,
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls keep it above the 5 EMA on the Week charts #W1 and nudge up the ATH intra-week. #W1.
Moving Averages:  
  • On the Day Chart, the 5 EMA and 13 SMA poised to touch #D1. 
Indicators:
  • RSI 13, continues to meander in No-Man's land #W2 while the Stochastic keeps it to the over-bought  #D1


Wrap:
Bulls make a new ATH - Bears lose control of all Time Frames..




Looking forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • The 'Deliberation Candle Pattern' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) needs consideration #M1. 
  • Weekly 'Opening White Marubozu' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) gives Bulls hope of a  Continuum #W1. 
Support & Resistance:
  • 13 SMA on the Medium Term Chart #W1, is now support for the Bulls, while the All Time High (ATH) #M1 is resistance.
Moving Averages:
  • Bears need to get the index below the 13 SMA (1821) #W1 to get back into the game - Bulls seek  continuum to a new ATH #M1.
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4, staying in the over-bought, works for the Bulls #D2.  


Wrap:
Bears target the 13 SMA #W1 (1821) - Bulls seek momentum to continue to make new ATHs.




The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Bulls edge up - Week 1 of March 2014.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 28 Feb'14




Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls edge up above the Tenkan Sen #W2.

Senoku Span A & B gap contracts #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen flat and steady #W2.


Wrap: Index edges up #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Senoku Span A & B - gap contracting is good for the bears #W3.
Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would show direction going forward $W2.


Wrap: Bulls stay strong above the Tenkan Sen - Bears want a bearish cross of the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen #W2.




CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - The Nifty Piercing - Week 1 of March 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 28 Feb'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 28 Feb'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 28 Feb'14




Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • January and February Candles form a  'Piercing Pattern' #M1.
  • Bearish 'Three Outside down' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) - see the last three candles on EOM  chart #M1 - fails to materialize, as February closes above January's close. 
Support & Resistance:
  • Index  closes above 6238 the March Wall (Wall = Approx Hawala rate - study link herehere or elsewhere)
Moving Averages:
  • The medium term 5 EMA poised to Bullishly cross above the 13 SMA #W1. 
Indicators:
  • STS pulls back (study) from below, to the Support line shown #W2. 



Wrap:
Bulls keep momentum with a retake of all 3 Time Frames - Bears hold STS pullback below the Support line #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:

 

Patterns:
  • Bullish 'Piercing Pattern' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart #M1 is active.   
  • The three peaks made by the Index marked A, B and C on the EOM - can be a Triple Top (Study link herehere or elsewhere) - The two Bottoms D & E look like a 'Ugly Double Bottom' (Study link here or elsewhere) - these two are worth watching.
Support & Resistance:
  • The long time nemesis of the Bulls, the Nov'13 High (6343) #W1, is the next resistance. 
  • 5975, the 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace of the Dec'2011 Low to ATH#W1 is the support.
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on and steady, even as index is clear above these SMAs #D1.
  • A Bullish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Week Charts stays in place this week, at a Index reading of 6229 #W1.
Indicators:
  • STS keeping below its support line, works for the Bears #W1, while the MACD staying above the zero line, helps the Bulls #D2.



Wrap:
Bears want life below the March Wall, 6238. Bulls hope to cross and stay above 6343.




BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bulls at Old Highs - Week 1 of March 2014.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 28 Feb'14




Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls thrive above the Tenkan Sen  #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - widen #W3.
Distance between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen contracts #W2
Chikou Span glides up in man's zone - after avoiding a bearish cross #W1.  


Wrap: Index thrives above the Tenkan Sen #W2.





Looking Forward into this Week:


Chikou Span needs to climb some more to avoid a bearish cross with the Price Line in the next few weeks #W1.
Bears need to get below the Tenkan Sen to remain in the game #W2.
Contracting gap between Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen works for bears #W2.


Wrap: Bears want the Tenkan sen below the Kijun Sen #W2. Bulls happy to hold the Chikou Span above the Price line #W1.