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Sunday, June 23, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 17 June to 21 June: 2013 - Bears Break Channel.






S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 17 May'13





S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 17 May'13




S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 17 May'13






Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)

Three inside down on the Weekly chart #3 - studied earlier - continued to bring the index down.
Bears get back the Short Term cracking the Channel bottom #D1.
5 EMA stays below the 13 SMA #D1.
RSI and its MA remain below oversold #W2.
The 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace - remains at the last consolidation cluster #M1.
On the Short term charts 5 EMA moves above then goes below the 13 SMA last week #D1.
EOM charts see the Bulls taking support on the 5 EMA #M1 for the second week.
On the Week chart - 5 EMA close to sliding below the 13 SMA next week #W1.


Bears break our identified support - Day Channel's Bottom Green Line #D1..



The Ellipses marked #M1, #W1 and #D1 indicate the hot spots on the long, medium and short term charts respectively.
As one can see - we are zooming into the action starting #M1 through #W1 and get up close in #D1.




Looking forward into the next Week:

Day channel's, bottom green line #D1 is now the resistance for the Bulls.
5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - is the next available support for Bulls.
Bulls yet to clear off the Triple Top Threat conclusively ...
Moving the price, above the 13 SMA on the EOW #3, next task for bulls.
The 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace - remaining around the last consolidation cluster #M1, is good for Bears.
5 EMA crossing above or deflecting off the 13 SMA to be watched #D1.
Three inside down on the Weekly chart #3 - studied earlier - continues to be in play.


Bear hope remain on the 3 inside down #W1, Bulls hope for a deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA #W1.




CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 17 June to 21 June: 2013 - Bears Roll on..


Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 17 May'13




Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 17 May'13




Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Nov' 2012, onward - as on 17 May'13




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)


Last month's Shooting star candlestick #1- gives the Bears their 3rd Red week in June - Index ends the week at the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the Jan'12 low to All time high #5. 
Support line on the STS #4, fails the Bulls.
Volume ticks up, for this down move #7.
The short fuse indicator, which  started June at zero, continues to moves lower #2.
Bearish Deflection of the  5 EMA and 13 SMA, gives the bears momentum #6.
Bearish Cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the Medium Term (@5737) also adds speed to the fall #3.


Bears move the Nifty down to the '61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the Jan'12 low to All time high' #5. 





Looking Forward into the next Week:


Bullish Cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, in the short term to be watched for #5.
Bulls look to keep above the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the Jan'12 low to All time high #5. 
50 SMA and 200 SMA, convergence towards a death cross to be watched #5.
Shooting Star Candle stick #1 studied early this month, is still in play.
Bears take control the Medium Term and the Short Term Screens now.


Bear hope remain on the Shooting Star #1 - Bulls see support at the "61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the Jan'12 low to All time high" #5



The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 17 June to 21 June: 2013 - Bears Nose in



                             .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 
Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below

The Kumo Breakout: Strong Bullish  Signal (B)
The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)
The Chikou Span Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (cC)  
The Kijun sen cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (K) 
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (T)


Last:
Tenkan Sen Cross:  Weak Bearish Signal (Te)




Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 21 May'13




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for that post)


Bears Crash below the Tenkan Sen ..  #2..
The Oscillator #3 ticks down.
Bulls close celebrations with 26 weeks spent above the Tenkan Sen #2 after bouncing of the Kumo #1.



Bears edge in ...




Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bears need to hold the index below the Tenkan Sen #2.
Oscillator remaining below the High line, important for Bears #3.
Bulls would look at getting back the advantage - rising above the Tenkan Sen #2.



Bears eye the distant Kijun Sen #2 .... Bulls remain under pressure.



BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 17 June to 21 June: 2013 - Meeting for Deflection or Cross 6 - Surprise !



                     .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......


Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click). 

Quick Reference : 

Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below:

The Senoku Span Cross:  Neutral Bullish Signal (Ss)
The Kumo Break-out: Bullish Signal (B)  
The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)
The Chikou Span Cross:  Weak Bearish Signal (Cc)  
The Tenkan Sen Cross:  Bearish Signal (Te)
The Kijun Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (K) 

New:
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (T)




BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 21 May'13



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)


Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen lines Cross Bullishly  #2. 
Chikou Span remains below the price line #1.
Index stays below the Kijun Sen, Tenkan Sen, MVWAP 34 confluence  #2.
Oscillator ticks down  #3.
Price takes support near the Kumo #2.


Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen lines Cross Bullishly - exactly as studied in the last 6 weeks.




Looking Forward into the next Week:


A Bullish Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen Cross, appeared last week - despite the index sliding lower #2.
A Bearish Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen Cross now, may give the Bears a sneaky win #2.
Taking support near the Kumo, Bulls can attempt to get above the Kijun Sen, Tenkan Sen, MVWAP 34 confluence  #2.


Tenkan Sen did move above the Kijun Sen making a Bullish Cross - to the relief of the hopeful Bulls and the chagrin of the bemused Bears...