Sunday, December 30, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 24 December to 28 December, 2012 - Bears break in..




S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 28 December, 2012



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 28 December, 2012



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 28 December, 2012





Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)

As pointed out last week - the Bullish Cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW #3, was the key - what looked like a Bullish cross turned into a Bearish deflection giving the watchful Bear the honey...
Also as repeated for the past few weeks - the Bulls slithering along the green bottom line of the EOW Channel #3, failed to move back into it and saw a small slide.
On the long term charts - one sees a close below the 5 EMA  #1.
The EOD Channel #5 gets broken on the lower end.
Bulls see a close below the critical MVWAP 34 on the short term charts #5.



Last week saw the Bulls and Bears break 'Status quo' on the medium term and short term - Bears get the Honors.





Looking forward into the next Week:

The Ellipses marked #1,#2 and #3 indicate the focus areas on the long, medium and short term charts that we study this week.
The Bearish Deflection on the EOW #3 and the Bearish Cross on the EOD #5 of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA - indicate short term strength of the Bears - reversals here is what the Bulls look out for.
RSI moving above or below the MA #4 is another sign to notice.
STS position #2, in the oversold zone, indicate long term strength of Bulls.
Resistance continues at the EOW channel bottom #3, support is initially at the MVWAP 34, see #3 and then the '23.6% Fibonacci retrace of the Oct'07 High and Mar'09 Low' #1.



After the Bear Slide of last week - one could watch the MVWAP 34 on the Day Chart - retake of this MA by the Bulls is one of the first signs of a fightback.






CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 24 December to 28 December, 2012 - Bulls mull charge




Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 28 Dec '12 



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 28 Dec '12



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Nov' 2012, onward - as on 28 Dec '12




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bulls move the index above our mark 5880 giving the Bears some Settlement Blues - Jan'13 wall is 5870.
Earlier in the week, Bears made another dash at the 5825 mark - Bulls however denied them a Merry Feast.
The Month chart's Bullish Three Outside up #1 is back in the reckoning - one day to go, to know for sure.
Bearish Cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA is followed by a Bullish Cross #5.
The Short Fuse indicator continues to show a down tick all December #2.


The EOD channel's green bottom line is held by the Bulls - our Resistance line marked by the arrow above that, is held by the Bears see #5.





Looking Forward into the next Week:

Taking the index below our Wall for Jan'13 i.e. 5870, would be the next challenge for the Bears.
Bulls need to keep it above 5880, the Nov'12 Close to prevent a Bear Charge.
The 5 EMA 13 SMA re-cross on the EOD is a signal to watch #5.
Index staying above the 5 EMA on the EOW is critical for Bulls in the medium term #3.
MACD and Signal line could meet for some action again #6.


5870 and 5880 are the numbers that the New Year would see as critical - Bulls are poised for a charge, closing 2012, above these numbers..





Saturday, December 29, 2012

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - 24 December to 28 December, 2012 - Advantage Bears





                             .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 
Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below

The Kumo Breakout: Strong Bullish  Signal (B)
The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)
The Chikou Span Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (cC)  
Tenkan Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Te)  
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross:  Weak Bearish  Signal (T)

New:
The Kijun sen cross:  Weak Bearish  Signal (K)



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 28 December, 2012




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bearish Kijun Sen Cross happens as anticipated last week #2.
Bears bring the index below the MVWAP 34 also, reducing the Bull's advantage considerably #2.
Bulls defend the Tenkan Sen #2. 
The Oscillator ticks down #4.
Chikou Span close to price line #1.


The Tenkan Sen/ Kijun Sen Cross of last week coupled with the Kijun sen Cross this week - gives the Bears the advantage.





Looking Forward into the next Week:

A Senkou Span Cross #3 - if it happens from this position - is more bad news for the Bulls.
Bulls keep the index above the Tekan Sen#2. 
A Bearish Chikou Span Cross at this stage, would catalyze a dive into the Kumo #1.
Range is between the Kijun Sen and the Kumo  #2.


Holding the Tenkan Sen is critical for Bulls - Ranging as above continues.





BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 24 December to 28 December, 2012 - Ahead Bull..




                     .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 

Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below:

The Senoku Span Cross:  Neutral Bullish Signal (Ss)
The Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (K)
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (T) 
The Kumo Break-out: Bullish Signal (B)  
The Chikou Span Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Cc)  

Last:
The Tenkan Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Te)  





BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 28 December, 2012





Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bulls range above the Tenkan Sen #1.
Oscillator ticks up again. 
Flat Kumo effect off last week.



Despite Global weakness - Bulls keep the Sensex, A head above the Tenkan Sen.





Looking forward into the next Week:

Staying above the Kumo - advantage is with the Bulls.
Flat Kumo Effect could be on for one more week.
Bulls would need to remain above the Tenkan Sen #1 and also move up - the ranging movement of the last few weeks give the game to the Bears.



Possibility of a Bearish, 'Kijun Sen - Tenkan Sen' Cross continues to be the Bear Hope..




Sunday, December 23, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 17 December to 21 December, 2012 - Bulls hold on..





S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 21 December, 2012 




S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 21 December, 2012




S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 21 December, 2012






Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)

Bulls fail to move back into the Week Channel #3 - Bears nudge them out on the last day of the Week #5.
Bullish Cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW #3 - looks on.
Bullish Deflecton of the above MAs on the EOD #5 also occurs.
Index continues its slithering along, at or around the bottom line of the EOW channel #3, #5.
Bulls keep above the 34 MVWAP on the EOD #5 and EOW #3.
Bears close index above the critical 13 SMA on the week charts #3.


Last week again saw the Bulls and Bears maintain status 'quo on the medium term and short term - bulls go stronger into the next week.





Looking forward into the next Week:

Bullish Cross of 5/13 MAs on EOW  #3 to be watched for, at the start of the next week.
Bulls need to move back decisively into the EOW channel to avert a slide #3.
Above the 5 EMA the Bulls retain Long Term strength  #1.
Keeping above the 13 SMA the Bulls can finally  gain entry back into the week channel #3.
Resistance continues at the EOW channel bottom #3, support is at the '23.6% Fibonacci retrace of the Oct'07 High and Mar'09 Low' #1.



Bears failed to take it down last week and now the Bulls look at breaking the impasse with a Bullish MA cross studied above.





CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 17 December to 21 December, 2012 - Teddy eyes X'Mas feast..




Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 21 Dec '12 




Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 21 Dec '12




Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from November 2012, onward - as on 21 Dec '12







Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Failure of the Bullish Hikkake, very early in the week - helped one sense the trend.
Bears after the above, moved the index below the Nov'12 Close - putting on hold the Bullish Three Outside up #1.
Bulls manage to keep the index above the Wall for December i.e. 5825.
Bullish Cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA is followed by a Bearish Cross #5.
MACD and Signal line deflect neatly  #6.
The Short Fuse indicator continues to show a down tick all December #2.
The resistance line on the STS #4 shows us the way again.


The Resistance line drawn on the EOD #5 held off the Bulls once again and the Bears halt just above the Wall. 





Looking Forward into the next Week:

Taking the index below our Wall for December: 5825, would be the next challenge for the Bears.
Bulls need to take it above 5880, the Nov'12 Close to prevent a Bear Charge.
The 5 EMA #3 on the EOW, lines up with the Wall for the coming week i.e. both lie at 5825.
Bulls remain on top, so long as the STS keeps in the oversold  #4.



Break of the 5825-5880 range, early in the week, is something to watch out for. Downside break would be the Bear's X'Mas Treat.




Saturday, December 22, 2012

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - 17 December to 21 December, 2012 - Consolidation




                             .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 
Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below

The Kumo Breakout: Strong Bullish  Signal (B)
The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)
The Chikou Span Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (cC)  
The Kijun sen cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (K)  
Tenkan Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Te)  


New:
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross:  Weak Bearish  Signal (T)




Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 21 December, 2012




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bearish - 'Kijun Sen (blue line) - Tenkan Sen' (red line) Cross #2 creates ranging.
The Oscillator ticks up into plus zone #4.
Chikou Span close to price line #1.


The Blue Line (Kijun Sen) and Red Line (Tenkan Sen) Cross, is causing some Consolidation. 




Looking Forward into the next Week:

A Senkou Span Cross #3 - if it happens from this position - is bad news for the Bulls.
Bulls keep the index above the MVWAP 34, Tekan Sen (red line) and the Kijun Sen (blue line) #2. 
Ranging above the Kijun Cross can continue #2.



Bearish Kijun Sen Cross / Senkou Span Cross is the next hope of the Shorts..






BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 17 December to 21 December, 2012 - Engulfed, now down..




                     .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 

Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below:

The Senoku Span Cross:  Neutral Bullish Signal (Ss)
The Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (K)
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (T) 
The Kumo Break-out: Bullish Signal (B)  
The Chikou Span Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Cc)  

Last:
The Tenkan Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Te)  






BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 21 December, 2012




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bulls keep above the Tenkan Sen #1 but lose ground..
Oscillator ticks up again. 
Flat Kumo effect on.


Last Week's red candle Engulfed the previous week's green candle - this week's candle closes below last week's.




Looking forward into the next Week:

Staying above the Kumo - advantage is with the Bulls.
Flat Kumo Effect could be on for a couple more weeks.
Bulls would need to remain above the Tenkan Sen #2 to keep the momentum on.



Possibility of a Bearish, 'Kijun Sen - Tenkan Sen' Cross continues to be the Bear Hope..




Sunday, December 16, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 10 December to 14 December, 2012 - Bears see Red




S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 14 December, 2012





S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 14 December, 2012






S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 14 December, 2012






Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)

Bulls fail to move back into the Week Channel #3 and Bears see a Red Candle for the week.
Bearish Deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW #3 - seems likely.
Bearish Cross of the above MAs on the EOD #5 also imminent. 
Index slithers along. at or around the bottom line. of the EOW channel #3, #5.
Bulls manage to keep above the 34 MVWAP on the EOD #5. 
Bears close index below the critical 13 SMA on the week charts #3.


Last week again saw the Bulls and Bears maintain status 'quo on the medium term and short term - bears go stronger into the next week. 





Looking forward into the next Week:

Bearish Deflection and Cross of 5/13 MAs that we track, looks on next week on EOW and EOD  #3, #5.
Bulls need to move back decisively into the EOW channel to avert a slide #3.
Above the 5 EMA the Bulls retain Long Term strength  #1.
Below the 13 SMA the Bears gain an edge in the medium term #3.
Resistance continues at the EOW channel bottom, support is at the '23.6% Fibonacci retrace of the Oct'07 High and Mar'09 Low' #1.



Bears showed some strength last week, by positioning the index for a bearish move - now to see if they can take it down.




CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 10 December to 14 December, 2012 - Hikkake..




 Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 14 Dec '12 




Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 14 Dec '12




Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from October 2012, onward - as on 14 Dec '2012




Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from October. 2012, onward - as on 14 Dec '2012




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

A Red Week with a candle #3 which just fell short of being a Bearish Engulfing of the previous one..
We looked at the Bulls taking Step 1 for a Three Outside up, by staying above the resistance line on the EOD #5 - Bears ensure that this did not happen.
Another Three Outside up.#1 requirement which we studied last week was that the Nov'12 Close should be held by the Bulls - The week ended exactly at Nov'12 close i.e. 5880 !!
Bulls held the index above 5880 for most of the week - the fall on breach of this level was swift.
The fall came close to touching the 'Wall' for this month at 5825 before moving back to 5880.
A Bullish Hikkake which one can study here and here - forms on the EOD #7.



The Resistance line drawn on the EOD #5 held off the Bulls and the Bears were sent back near the Wall for the month.





Looking Forward into the next Week:

A 'Three Outside up' on the long term chart #1 combined with a 'Bullish Hikkake' on the EOD #7 - bodes good omens for the bull.
Falling below our Wall for December 5825 however, holds off above advantage.
Bullish Hikkake's effect would be known if 5925 is taken & held by the Bulls in the next two days.
Bearish Cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on EOD is on - a close above 5900 on Monday and it becomes a Bullish Deflection.



Keeping above the Wall at all costs and November's Close are critical for Bulls - Couple of Candles to go on the EOD, to know the fate of the Bullish Hikkake as studied above.





The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - 10 December to 14 December, 2012 - On the Range




                             .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 
Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below

The Kumo Breakout: Strong Bullish  Signal (B)
The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)
The Chikou Span Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (cC)  
The Kijun sen cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (K)  
Tenkan Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Te)  


New:
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross:  Weak Bearish  Signal (T)




Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 14 December, 2012





Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bearish - 'Kijun Sen (blue line) - Tenkan Sen' (red line) Cross happens as anticipated,  its a weak signal as it occurs when the price is above the Kumo #1.
The Oscillator ticks up while still in the negative #2.




Looking Forward into the next Week:

A Senoku Span Cross - if it happens from this position - is bad news for the Bulls.
Bears get their Bearish Kijun Sen - Tenkan Sen Cross #1 - and life inside the Kumo beckons.
Bulls keep the index above the MVWAP 34, Tekan Sen (red line) and the Kijun Sen (blue line) #1. 
Above two should produce some Ranging.



The Blue Line (Kijun Sen) and Red Line (Tenkan Sen) Crossing last week, could result in some Consolidation.