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Saturday, October 13, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 08 October to 12 October, 2012 - Bulls manage to hold the Week..



S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price)  (or) EOM Chart: 
S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - 12 October, 2012
Above is the Month Chart - EOM - analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward





S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price) (or) EOW Chart:
S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - 12 October, 2012
Above is the Week Chart - EOW -  analyzing Data from Q2-Q3 2012, onward.





S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move)  (or) EOD Chart:
S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  12 October, 2012.
Above is the Day Chart - EOD -  analyzing Data from Oct'2012, onward.





Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)
After the consolidation of the previous 4 weeks - bears force the index down below the Week's channel bottom - producing a Bearish Engulfing in the bargain (c).
Bulls hold the Price above the 13 SMA on the Week Chart (c) - just about saving the week.
Bears move it below the 5 EMA on the Medium and Short term chart (c,e).
There is a bearish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the the EOD (e). 
Bears see off the RSI, to below the oversold bar (d).
Index falls belwo the MVWAP 34 on the EOD (e).
Positive Divergence develops on the MACD Histogram (f).
Month candle turns red (a).




Looking forward into the next Week:
Bears are almost back.
Taking it it above the 5 EMA on the EOD and EOW (c,e)- is critical for the Bulls.
Barely holding the Green (c) on the Week charts - Bulls need to take it back into the Week Channel  to remain in contention.
Bears look to keep it below the MVWAP 34 on the EOD (d).
Positive divergence on the EOD (f) gives the Bulls hope.
Position of the STS (b) indicator shows Bull strength.
The followup for the Bearish Engulfing is the Three Outside Down (c) - for this to happen the Bears have to keep the next week's close below last week's -  one thing  we look out for.





CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 08 October to 12 October, 2012 - Channel top resists Bulls




Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 12 October, 2012
Above is the Month Chart - EOM -  analyzing Data from 2008 onward. 





Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 12 October, 2012
Above is the Week Chart - EOW -  analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward.




Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices  (or) EOD Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 12 October, 2012
Above is the Day Chart - EOD - analyzing Data from May 2012, onward. 





Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)
Divergence at the MACD (f) helped the Bears, the Signal line crossed the MACD early in the week exactly as anticipated and Bears got a red week.
A bearish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA (e) confirms that the Bears have arrived on the EOD.
Bulls keep it above the 5 EMA on the Medium and Long Term Screens (a,c).
The short fuse indicator (b) turns down, indicating the effect of this month's candle, to-date.
STS in oversold (d) indicates Bull power.
Month candle turns red (a).
Bearish Engulfing Candle Pattern forms on the EOW (c).





Looking Forward into the next Week:
Bulls, after failing to clear the EOD Channel top look at the Blue center line (e) as support.
A massive Pullback to the Monthly Channel's Green bottom line (a) - is the still the Bull agenda.
Gap between the 50 SMA and 200 SMA on the EOD, now starts contracting.
Staying above the red support-resistance line on the STS (d) is important for the Bulls.
Getting the Index below the 5 EMA on the Week Chart (c) is critical for the Bears.
Bears look forward to the Bearish Engulfing (c) developing into a Bearish Three Outside Down.. So watch if the next week's candle looks like closing below last weeks, for this Highly reliable Bearish Pattern to kick in.






The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 08 October to 12 October, 2012 - Bears comeback



                               .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 
Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as marked on chart below:

Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal (B)
The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)
The Kijun sen cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (K)
Tenkan Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Te)
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish  Signal (T)




DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud 
DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 12 October, 2012



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)
Chikou Span (pink line) - dives towards the price line.
The Oscillator ticks down, -ve divergence is persistent (b).
Support for index (a) was exactly on the Tenkan Sen (a) as studied last week.




Looking Forward into the next Week:
The Chikou Span heading for the Price line needs to be watched - bearish cross possible in a couple of weeks, if it falls at current rate.
After the consolidation of the last 4 candles Bulls hold the Index on the Tenkan Sen, for the week (a) - take off from here is critical, as cross of this line, is seen as an early indicator of trend change.



BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 08 October to 12 October, 2012 - Bears score



                         .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 

Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as shown on chart below:

The Tenkan Sen Cross:  Weak  Bullish   Signal (Te)
The Senoku Span Cross:  Neutral  Bullish  Signal (Ss)
The Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral  Bullish Signal (K)
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong  Bullish Signal (T) 
The Kumo Break-out: Bullish Signal (B)  
The Chikou Span Cross:  Strong   Bullish Signal (Cc)  




BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:
The BSE  Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 12 October, 2012




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)
The Thinning Kumo (a) worked to the advantage of the Bears - as pointed out last week.
The Chikou Span dives towards the Kumo (b).
Oscillator ticks up.




Looking forward into the next Week:
Bears look to reaching the Tenkan Sen to start making an impact.
Staying above the Kumo - advantage is with the Bulls.
The Thinning Kumo (a) remains an advantage for the Bears.
Chikou Span (b) reaching the Kumo is what we need to watch out for next.