TO READ THIS WEEK's POST CLICK HERE...

Monday, December 22, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Back to ATH ! - Week 4 of December 2014.














Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • Index bounces off the MVWAP 34 to touch the ATH again #W1.
  • Bullish Harami on the Medium Term keeps the Bull camp happy #W1.
  • With the Monthly Candle resembling a Dragon Fly doji as of now, bears take heart #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls find support at the 34 MVWAP on the EOW and hit the ATH again, after bears break index below the 13 SMA earlier in the week #W1..
Moving Averages:  
    • Daily 5 EMA and 13 SMA, cross Bullishly #D1.
    Indicators:
    • STS 34 3 4, takes a bounce at the oversold line #D2.

    Wrap:
    Bears take their fall all the way to the MVWAP 34 on the EOW #W1. 
    Bulls get back 8 Day's loss in 3 days, and hit the ATH again #W1.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Broadening Top (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) seen on the Day Chart - follow up  re-formed top - bottom is near the 76.4% retrace marked.
    • Bullish Harami active, turning into a 'Three Inside up' to be watched for - (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #W1.
    • Dragon Fly Doji worth a study (Study Links herehere or elsewhere)  #M1.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • Megaphone Top #D1 and current All Time High (ATH), are levels the Bulls look to take out.
    • The 13 SMA on the weekly charts (2008) and last week's close i.e. 2071 are the supports, that the Bears would want to get below #W1.
    Moving Averages:
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Medium Term Charts cross bearishly below 1907 #W1.
    Indicators:
    • TSI nudges above the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls after a massive slide, get back to the ATH and look to making a 'Three Inside up', staying above 2071 #W1.
    Bears lose their honey and hope to defend the current ATH #D1.



    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Separation & Support - Week 4 of December 2014.








    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen Separate last week as studied #W2.
    Bulls take support exactly at the separated Tenkan Sen #W2.
    Senoku Span A & B gap widens #W3.


    Wrap: After a long period of running together, the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen deflect Bullishly to support the Index, precisely when and where, the Bull wanted it to #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bears aim for a journey back to the Kumo, starting with a move to below the Tenkan Sen #W2.
    Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, happens again as studied #W2.
    Bears now strive for a bearish cross of the Tenkan Send and Kijun Sen #W2.


    Wrap: Bulls look for new ATHs supported after the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen deflect bullishly - while the Bears want to see a Bearish cross next #W2.


    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls Fight - Week 4 of December 2014.













    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)




    Patterns:
    • Previous week's 'Dark Cloud Cover' Candle Pattern takes a break after failing to make it to previous 'low' on the EOD, giving the Bulls room to get back above the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1.
    • Last two candles on the EOM screen, form a Bearish Engulfing as of now #M1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Finding support above the previous low #D1, index moves up, to above the monthly 5 EMA, weekly 13 SMA, and the R1 of the Monthly Pivot.
    • The 5 EMA on the EOW and Day Channel's mid-line, were resistances.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD, remains crossed bearishly last week #D1.
    Indicators:
    • MACD and its MA stay crossed bearishly and falls below the zero line #D2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls manage a halt above the previous low, Dark Cloud Cover's effect keeps control of the short term screen with Bears below last week's close #W1.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • Dark Cloud Cover on the Weekly Charts active (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #W1.
    • Long Term Bearish engulfing in progress, to be watched until month end #M1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index supports that the Bears want to break below this week, are the Monthly 5 EMA (8110), Weekly 13 SMA (8225) and the R2 of the Month Pivot #M1.
    • Resistances that the Bulls want to get above, are the 5 EMA on the EOW (8324) #W1 and the Wall for December (8494).
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - the MA's are converging #D1.
    • Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the EOW with touch at 7966, to be watched for #W1.
    Indicators:
    • STS, moving below the overbought, would pause the 3+ quarter long Bull domination of the Medium and Long Term Screens #W2.


    Wrap :
    Staying above 8225, Bulls aim to break the blue mid-line of the EOD channel #D1.
    Bears seek to use the Dark Cloud Cover to push and keep, the Index below the 5 EMA on the Long Term screen #M1.


    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Tryst with Tenkan Sen 2 - Week 4 of December 2014.






    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bulls attempt to leave the Tenkan Sen behind, even as the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen deflect bullishly, some more #W2.
    Senkou Span A & B - gap widens #W3.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen have a broad/distant deflection (see earlier deflections in the chart above) #W2


    Wrap: Index attempts to get above the Tenkan Sen, after it comes up from below the Kijun Sen 
    #W2



    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Senkou Span 'A & B' diverging, is good for Bulls #W3.
    A Bearish, Chikou Span cross with Price line, at current altitude, will need a few weeks #W1.
    Bulls expect the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen deflection to remain at current orientation, even if index again slips below these lines this week  #W2


    Wrap: Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen deflect broadly -  the Bulls look for a deflection back to the ATH while the Bears hope for a Cross directed at the Kumo 
    #W2.