TO READ THIS WEEK's POST CLICK HERE...

Monday, October 28, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Another week another 'ATH' :- Week: 21 October to 25 October, 2013.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 25 Oct'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 25 Oct'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from July'2013, onward - as on 25 Oct'13




Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • As studied earlier - August and September Candles form a Bullish Harami  (Study Link herehere or elsewhere) #M1. October close above September makes it a 'Three Inside up'.
Support & Resistance:
  • The short Term Channel Top resistance was cleared by the Bulls last week, new channel shown  #D1. Month Channel Top (blue) is current resistance #D1
  • 5 EMA on the EOD was the support #D1.
Moving Averages:  
  • Aggressive Bulls keep above all the EMAs/SMAs we track, all last week #D1.
Indicators:
  • RSI 13 remains below the overbought #W2.
  • Month Chart Oscillator remains below the over-bought, after the August Close #M2.


Wrap:
Bulls keep the 'Three Inside Up' in progress on the Long Term and make another new 'ATH'




Looking forward into the next Week:


Patterns:
  • October closing above September's close makes a Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) - with a week to go for the month close, Bulls can smell the grass. 
Support & Resistance:
  • 34 EMA  and 200 SMA on the Short Term Chart are Support for the Bulls, while the 'All Time High' Line and the Channel Tops #D1 are resistances.
Moving Averages:
  • Running above the 5 EMA on the EOD #D1 - shows momentum of the Bulls.
Indicators:
  • RSI staying below the oversold, with its divergence to Price (arrow) #W2, plus for Bears.
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 staying in the over bought zone, works for the Bulls #D1


Wrap:
Bulls expect that the 'Three Inside Up' #M1, forms in October - Bears see 'hope' in the Month Channel Top resistance (blue) #D1 .




The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Bull Continuation :- Week: 14 October to 18 October, 2013.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 25 Oct'13



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls get higher above the Kijun Sen & Tenkan Sen #2.
Chikou Span still around the Price line #1.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrows further #2.


Bulls keep the advantage.. 




Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bulls keep index above Kijun Sen, and retain the advantage #2.
Chikou Span's distance to Price line important - to be watched for cross or deflection #1.  
Widening gap between the Senkou Span A&B (Thicker Kumo = stronger resistance) is a concern for Bears #3. 
Narrowing gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen should worry the Bulls #2.


Bulls need to stay above the Tenkan Sen while Bears pray the Tenkan Sen slips below the Kijun Sen #2.




CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 'Golden Cross' watch 1 :- Week: 21 October to 25 October, 2013.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 25 Oct'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 25 Oct'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2013, onward - as on 25 Oct'13




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:

  • As studied last couple of weeks - August and September Candles form a Bullish Harami  (Study Link here, here or elsewhere) #M1. October close above September makes it a 'Three Inside up'.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls keep above the Channel middle on the EOD #D1 - which was support last week.
  • All time High (ATH) beckons the Bulls #D1 and the ATH is the next resistance.
Moving Averages:
  • EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bearishly in a Death Cross ##D1. 
  • EOM - 5 EMA and 13 SMA cross Bullishly above 6003 #M1 - Bearish overhang lifts.
Indicators:
  • STS reaches the over bought after clearing resistance the previous week #W2.


Wrap:
Bears manage a red week even as the Bulls attempt to reach the All time High ..



Looking Forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

  • October closing above September's close makes a Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) - with a week to go for the month close, Bulls can smell the grass. 
Support & Resistance:
  • The 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' (5915) is the support for the Index #D1.
  • Last 'All time high' is the resistance #D1.
Moving Averages:
  • 200 SMA and 50 SMA on the Day Charts remaining Bearishly Crossed in a Death Cross  (study here, here or elsewhere) #D1, keeps the Bulls under pressure. 
  • 50 SMA gets close to the 200 SMA #D1 - Golden Cross (study here, here or elsewhere) is on in the coming week, at current rate of climb.
 Indicators:
  • MACD and its MA look like they could cross Bearishly anytime #D2.


Wrap:
Bears place their hopes on the Death Cross staying on #D1 - Bulls eye the 'All time High' and a Golden Cross #D1.





BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - The Bear Line Up - 6th and holding on :- Week: 21 October to 25 October, 2013.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 25 Oct'13



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku, can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)


The Senkou Span A&B #4 move higher but together, Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen also do the same #3, and now they all read 19244.07  - 6th week they all read the same #5.
Bears pull one back and get a red week #2.


Despite Bulls making a new High #2 albeit in a red week, Bears hold on to their last line of defense #5..





Looking Forward into the next Week:


The Senkou Span B crossing above the Senkou Span A #4 or the Tenkan Sen above the Kijun Sen #3 would give the Bulls control of the Medium Term Screen.

Bears manage to hold this line up  #5 for the 6th straight week. 
Chikou Span moves nearer to Price Line - deflection or cross some time away #1.


Tenacious Bears desperately hold their line #5 - Bulls seek to dominate the Medium Term #3 & #4.