Saturday, October 31, 2015

China - SSEC - Ichimoku Study - Kumo Consolidates - Week 1 of November 2015.







Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


Learning from the Earlier Study: 
(click here for the previous post)


Chikou Span slips below the Kijun Sen #W1.

Bulls potter around in the Kumo, after moving above the Tenkan Sen #W2. 
Senkou Span A & B, stay crossed Bearishly and rise together #W3.


Wrap: 

Despite the bearish Senkou Span cross, Index hangs on above the Tenkan Sen, and in the Kumo #W3.
Bears make the Chikou Span slip below the Kijun Sen #W1.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Bearish Senoku Span Cross is active (
Its called a 'Neutral' Bearish cross, because it occurred when the index was on Neutral territory i.e inside the Kumo) #W2.
Bulls seek to use the support at the Tenkan Sen, to break out of the Kumo #W2,.
Bears see the Chikou Span's dip, as a vote to get below the Kumo #W1.



Wrap:
Bears push for a resumption of the down trend, after the Senoku Span Cross #W3.
Bulls seek life above the Kumo after this consolidation W2 .

Brent Crude Oil - Ichimoku Study - Throwback Hold - Week 1 of November 2015.






Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Earlier Study: 
(click here for the previous post)

Index bounces off support after the Throwback with a green week - a rising Tenkan Sen Holds the Bulls at bay #W2.

Chikou Span points towards the Price line again #W1.
Gap between the Senkou Span A & B, narrows a bit #W3.
Gap between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, also reduces #W2.


Wrap: 

Index lifts off support with a green week after the Throwback #W2. 

Bears get the index to close exactly below a rising Tenkan Sen #W2.


Looking Forward into this Week:


Tenkan Sen going up and crossing, to above the Kijun Sen is something the Bulls look forward to #W2.
Chikou Span reaching the Price line is good for Bulls #W1.
Gap between the Senkou Span A & B is wide at #W3 & above the last Price point, making a thick Kumo - and a strong resistance to an up-move, when we get there #W3.


Wrap:

Resuming the up-move #W2, and taking out the Tenkan Sen is the next Bull ask.
Bears look to keep the index below the Tenkan Sen, failing which, keep it well below the Kijun Sen #W1.


Say....






Monday, October 26, 2015

US - S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 'W' Confluence. - Week 4 of October 2015.













Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • 'W' pattern on the EOD chart completes #D1, making a confluence with the Pullback to the Medium Term Channel's Bottom line (orange) #W1 and the EOD channel's Top (pink) #D1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index took support at the 13 SMA on the Day Chart all week #D1 - it was resisted exactly at the confluence of the Day Channel's top and Week Channel's bottom #D1, #W1.
Moving Averages:  
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on all the screens are Crossed Bearishly #M1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13, after lift off, from the oversold line, almost at the 50% mark #W2.  


    Wrap:
    Bulls after hammering their way to above the 2K mark, dominate the short and medium term screens.
    Bears stop the index at the Confluence of Channels and the 'W' pattern, as above #D1.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Confluence of a) the pullback to Channel Bottom (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #W1, b) The 'W' on the Day Chart are active (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #D1, along with c) the Day Channel's Top #D1 - worthy of study. 
    Support & Resistance: 
    • 200 SMA on the day chart is the support that Bulls want to stay above. Index has resistance at the 'Confluence point' studied above.
    Moving Averages:
    • Death Cross on the EOD, is active as long as the 50 SMA and the 200 SMA stay crossed Bearishly (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #D1,
    Indicators:
    • STS is Oversold #W2.


    Wrap:

    Bulls now seek the rewards of the big 'W' pattern #D1.
    Bears look to defend the 'Confluence Point' as above and get back into the game #M1.

    Europe - CAC 40 - Ichimoku Study - Kumo Pop - Week 4 of October 2015.






    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: 
    (click here for the previous post)


    Index Clears the Kijun Sen and pops out of the Kumo #W2.
    Chikou Span approaches the Price line #W1. 
    Gap between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, widens #W2.
    Senoku Span A & B, close in for a cross or deflection #W3.


    Wrap: 

    Bulls break out of the Kumo #W2.
    Chikou Span being resisted near the Price line, some solace for Bears #W2.


    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Chikou Span returning from the Price line is the Bear hope #W1.
    Price makes a Bullish cross, to above the Kijun Sen (Its called a 'Neutral' Bullish cross because it occurred when the index was on Neutral territory i.e inside the Kumo) #W2.
    Cross of the Senoku Span A & B is the next event the Bears hope for #W3.


    Wrap:

    Bears aim to send the index back inside the Kumo #W1, and hope the Chikou Span returns at the Price line #W1.
    Bulls aim for a deflection of the Senoku Span A & B to keeep the momentum going #W3.


    India - CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Channel Top - Week 4 of October 2015.











    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

    Patterns:
    • High Wave candle of September has produced a green October, to date #M1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Last week the bulls found support at the daily 5 EMA all week #D1, and at our mark 8224 intra-week. 
    • Take off from 8224, saw the bears bring up resistance precisely at .the Day Channel's red top line #D1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA cross bullishly, on the Week charts #W1.
    Indicators:
    • On the Day chart the  MACD and its MA stay above the zero line, Histogram ticks down #M2.

    Wrap:

    Bulls stay in control of the Day and Week screens #D1, #W1. 
    Bears manage to stop the index at the Day Channel's red top line #D1.





    Looking Forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • September's High Wave Candle, is worth a study, as this is the last week of October (Study Links herehere or elsewhere#M1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index has support at 7981. Bulls need to clear 8404, the monthly 13 SMA #M1 to continue upwards.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The Death Cross (50 and 200 SMA) is active, these MAs are now steady #D1.
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA, will stay crossed Bullishly on the Week charts if this week closes above 7981 #W1.
    Indicators:
    • The STS, crossing below its MA, is the first sign of cheer for Bears #W2.


    Wrap :
    Bulls seek to drive up to and clear 8404, with the momentum in hand #M1.
    Bears hope to hold the Day Channel's top and seek life below 7981 #D1.


    China - SSEC - Ichimoku Study - Kumo Life - Week 4 of October 2015.






    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: 
    (click here for the previous post)


    Chikou Span climbs, hugging the Kijun Sen #W1.

    Bulls get life inside the Kumo, after moving above the Tenkan Sen #W2. 
    Senkou Span A & B, stay crossed Bearishly #W3.


    Wrap: 

    Despite the bearish Senkou Span cross, Index makes another green candle in the Kumo #W3.
    Bulls continue to use the Chikou Span's Support at the Kijun Sen #W1, to move up #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bearish Senoku Span Cross is active (
    Its called a 'Neutral' Bearish cross, because it occurred when the index was on Neutral territory i.e inside the Kumo) #W2.
    Kumo gives the Index support to consolidate #W2.
    Bulls seek to use the support at the Tenkan Sen, to break out of the Kumo #W2.



    Wrap:
    Bears search for a resumption of the down trend, after the Senoku Span Cross #W3.
    Bulls seek life above the Kumo W2 .


    Saturday, October 24, 2015

    Brent Crude Oil - Ichimoku Study - Throwback 2 - Week 4 of October 2015.





    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the Earlier Study: 
    (click here for the previous post)

    Index throwback to support continues for the second week #W2.

    Chikou Span points away from the Price line again #W1.
    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B,  wide and steady #W3.
    Gap between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, steady #W2.


    Wrap: 

    Bulls, after knocking out the Tenkan Sen with a sharp breakout previously - return as in a Throwback #W2. 

    Bears manage two big red candles, as a result of the above #W2.


    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Chikou Span reaching the Price line looks likely in a few weeks, at current rate, this is good for Bulls #W1.
    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B is wide at #W3 & above the last Price point, making a thick Kumo - and a strong resistance to an up-move, when we get there #W3.
    Index staying above the 'Tenkan Sen' zone, and cracking the Kijun Sen is what the Bulls aim for #W2.


    Wrap:

    Resuming the up-move after the Throwback #W2, and taking out the Kijun Sen is the next Bull ask.
    Bears look to keep the index below the Tenkan Sen, failing which, keep it well below the Kijun Sen #W1.



    Say....






    Monday, October 19, 2015

    US - S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 'W' Continues. - Week 3 of October 2015.













    Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


    Patterns:
    • 'W' pattern on the EOD chart firms up further #D1.
    • On the Medium Term Screen, Index is seen on a 'Pull back' to the Week Channel's (orange) bottom line #W1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index took support at the 50 SMA on the Day Chart all week #D1 - it was resisted near the MVWAP35 on the Weekly Charts #W1.
    Moving Averages:  
      • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the Month screen are Crossed Bearishly #M1.
      Indicators:
      • RSI 13, after lift off, from the oversold line, almost at the 50% mark #W2.  


      Wrap:
      Bulls hammer their way to above the 2K mark.
      Bears stop the index near the weekly MVWAP35 #W1.




      Looking forward into this Week:

      Patterns:
      • Pullback to Channel Bottom (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #W1 and 'W' on the Day Chart are active (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #D1.
      • Both seem to be headed for a confluence, around the same target area on the chart.
      Support & Resistance: 
      • MVWAP35 on the long term screen #M1 (once again) is the support that Bulls want to stay above. Index has resistance at the 200 SMA on the Day chart #D1
      • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the Month screen will cross Bullishly if the index closes above 2161 #M1.
      Moving Averages:
      • Death Cross on the EOD, is active as long as the 50 SMA and the 200 SMA stay crossed Bearishly (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #D1,
      Indicators:
      • STS is Oversold #W2.


      Wrap:

      Bulls push to reach the target for a big 'W' pattern #D1.
      Bears look to defend 2161 and retain control of the long term screen #M1.


      Europe - CAC 40 - Ichimoku Study - Kumo Pause - Week 3 of October 2015.





      Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


      Learning from the Earlier Study: 
      (click here for the previous post)


      Index consolidates after the long green candle spanning the Senoku Span A and B  #W2.
      Chikou Span after the massive bounce off support at the Kijun Sen, also makes a pause #W1. 
      Gap between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, widens as they enter the Kumo #W2.


      Wrap: 

      Bulls hold the highs of the previous long green week #W2.
      Bears Defend the Kumo Top #W2.


      Looking Forward into this Week:



      Index making a Kumo Breakout, is the next Bull hope #W2.
      Chikou Span is crossed  below the Price line (Its called a 'Weak Bearish cross because it occurred when the index was Bullish i.e above the Kumo) and it has found support at the Kijun Sen #W1.
      Cross of the Senoku Span A & B is the next event the Bears hope for #W3.


      Wrap:

      Bulls still have momentum inside the Kumo, staying above the Tenkan Sen #W2.
      Bears aim to send the index below the Kumo, with a Bearish Cross of the Senoku Span A & B #W2.