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Sunday, July 7, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 01 July to 05 July: 2013 - Bears Hold the Line



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 05 July'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 05 July'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 05 July'13





Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)

Patterns:
  • 'Three inside Down' on the Month Charts kept at bay, as the index stays above last month's close #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls AGAIN bring up the index to the channel bottom #D1 - and get stopped in their pull back attempt.
Moving Averages:
  • 5 EMA deflecting the 13 SMA, meet on the Medium term charts #W1  & we have a bullish cross of these MAs on the Day Screen #D1.
  • July uses the Long Term 5 EMA as support #M1.
  • Bulls close above the 13 SMA on the Week Charts #W1.
Indicators:
  • RSI crosses above its and its MA while below oversold #W2.
  • Oscillator nudges above the 50 mark #D2.

Bulls 'Pull back' to our identified resistance - Day Channel's Bottom Green Line #D1..and stop.. AGAIN






Looking forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

Support & Resistance:
  • Day channel's, bottom green line #D1 remains the resistance for the Bulls.
  • The 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace - remaining around the last consolidation cluster #M1, is good for Bears.
Moving Averages:
  • Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
  • 5 EMA & 13 SMA  #W1  - Deflection is good for Bulls and Cross helps Bear Cause.
  • Getting below the 13 SMA on the Week Charts #W1 important for Bears.
Indicators:
  • #D2 above 50 and bullish cross at #W2,  favors the Bulls.

Bears hope the Channel bottom LINE #D1 holds, Bulls call for a COMPLETE deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA #W1.







CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 01 July to 05 July: 2013 - Bulls get 3 outside up..



Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) EOM Chart (or) Month Chart - each candle is 1 month's price action 



Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) EOW Chart (or) Week Chart - each candle is 1 week's price action 



Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) EOD Chart (or) Day Chart - line chart of daily closing Prices 






Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)


Patterns:

  • June month gave us a 'Hanging Man' Candle. We earlier studied May's Shooting Star which was profitable for Bears - these are on the EOM #1 Charts. 
  • On the Medium Term however, last week's  'Bullish Engulfing' graduates into a 'Three Outside Up' and keeps the Bull camp going, as anticipated #3.

Support & Resistance:

  • Revised Day Channel shows Bulls nudging the Channel top #5.
  • The 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' was resistance #5.
  • STS #4 shows where Bulls got support last week.

Moving Averages:

  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA cross Bullishly #5.
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA in the Medium Term poised to cross Bullishly or deflect otherwise #5.
  • Index closes below 13 SMA on the Medium Term - last week ALSO #3.

Indicators:

  • 'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 on the long term charts show Bulls a pip ahead..
  • Volumes falter #6.
  • MACD and its MA cross Bullishly and Histogram ticks positive #6.

Bulls use the 'Three Outside Up' #3 to remain in the Green another week..






Looking Forward into the next Week:


Patterns:


Support & Resistance:

  • Revised Day Channel top and the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' are now resistance - to beat - for the Bulls #5.
  • The 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' is support zone for Bears  to crack #5.

Moving Averages:

  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA approach for a Bullish Cross or Bearish Deflection #3.
  • Keeping above the 200 SMA on the Day Charts good for Bulls #5.
  • 13 SMA on the Medium Term - needs to be crossed by the Bulls to Progress #3.
  • 50 SMA and 200 SMA, convergence towards a death cross to be watched #5.

Indicators:

  • 'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 starts July in Bull zone - to be watched.
  • Volumes dipping for the up move, good for Bears #6.
  • STS resistance line can support Bulls for an up move #4.

Bears hope the combined effect of the Shooting Star and Hanging Man #1 will kick in soon - Bulls look forward to the Three Outside Up giving some more gains #3