TO READ THIS WEEK's POST CLICK HERE...

Monday, January 13, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 2014 stays Red - Week 3 of January 2014.




S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 10 Jan'14

S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 10 Jan'14


S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Oct'2013, onward - as on 10 Jan'14



Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:

  • Bullish '3 Inside up' #M1, on the Long Term Charts kept November and December candles green, with a new ATH.
  • January '14 candle remains red #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index closes above the 5 EMA on all screens #D1, #W1, #M1. 
  • Bulls stay below the EOW channel top resistance (orange line) #W1.
Moving Averages:  
  • On the EOD the 5 EMA poised to bearishly cross or bullishly deflect the 13 SMA #D1.
Indicators:
  • RSI 13, stays in the overbought #W2.
  • Month Chart Oscillator just below the overbought, as it has been after the August'13 Close #M2.


Wrap:
Bulls still see this year with a red hue, but retain strength - Bears continue to hold fort at the EOW channel top #D1, #W1..



Looking forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • Long Term Chart's Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) #M1 - still active.
Support & Resistance:
  • MVWAP 34 and EOD channel Bottom on the Short Term Chart are Support for the Bulls.
  • 'All Time High' Line and the Channel Top #W1 are resistances.
Moving Averages:
  • Bears need to get below the 5 EMA on the EOW to get a life #W1.
  • Bulls need to keep the 5 EMA on the EOD above the 13 SMA to keep their life #D1.
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 in the overbought zone, works for the Bulls #D1.
  • Oscillator popping into the over-bought this month, can set the Bulls free #M1.  


Wrap:
Bears seek momentum with a bearish cross of the 5 EMA &13 SMA on the EOD - Bulls want to get green back into 2014 candle (Month/Year).



The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - ATH Hold - Week 3 of January 2014.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 10 Jan'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls on Hold near the ATH with all red weeks in 2014 #W2.
Senoku Span A & B converge some and head up #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen widens #W2.


Wrap: Bulls get a red 2014 as Bears force a second red week #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:

Convergence of Senoku Span A & B, a concern for Bulls #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen wide, giving the Bulls some relief #W2.
Critical for Bulls to stay above current support (Tenkan Sen) #W2.


Wrap: Bulls look to keep momentum and make new ATHs while Bears pray the Tenkan Sen cracks #W2.



CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bears sniff Honey - Week 3 of January 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 10 Jan'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 10 Jan'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 10 Jan'14




Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • November and December candles will set up a Long Term 'Three Outside up' if January closes above December Close #M1.
  • The last three candles on the EOW #W1 form a Medium Term 'Three Outside Down' Candle Pattern.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bears crack the 13 SMA and 5 EMA on the EOW #W1.
  • Bears crash through the 34 EMA, 50 SMA & Channel mid line Support on the EOD, while Bulls were resisted last week by the 13 SMA on the EOD #D1.
Moving Averages:
  • EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA start converging for a Death Cross even as they currently stay crossed bullishly in a Golden Cross #D1. 
  • The medium term 5 EMA threatens to move below the 13 SMA #W1.  
Indicators:
  • STS stays above resistance line #W2, a strong support for Bulls. 
  • MACD follows its Histogram into the Sub-Zero zone #D2.

Wrap:
Bulls lose short term screen - Bears close below the Weekly 13 SMA finally #W1.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • Bullish 'Three Outside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart #M1 is possible - to be watched for.   
  • Bearish 'Three Outside down' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Medium Term Chart, #W1 is active. 
Support & Resistance:
  • 13 SMA EOD, is now this weeks resistance #D1.
  • 34 EMA (6009) on the Week Chart #W1 is the Support that the Bulls have to hold, to retain control of the Medium Term.
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) 50 & 200 SMA - can even now give the Bulls verve to attempt new ATHs.
  • EOW 5 EMA bearishly Crossing below the 13 SMA at 6125 this week would give the Bears their Honey #W1.
Indicators:
  • STS keeping above its support line, works for the Bulls #W2.
  • Bulls need to get above the Wall for the current series i.e. 6280 (Wall = Approx Hawala rate - study link herehere or elsewhere) to get back into the game.



Wrap:
Bulls seek to clear the Wall and target the ATH - Bears hope to keep below the Wall and break 6125. 



BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen gives - Week 3 of January 2014.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 10 Jan'14




Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls lose support as the Tenkan Sen gives way, Index closes below it #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap steady #W3.
Distance between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen also steady #W2

Wrap: Bears close below the Tenkan Sen with a second red week in 2014 #W2.





Looking Forward into this Week:


Chikou Span keeping above the Price Line critical for Bull moves #W1.
Bulls need to get above the Tenkan Sen to remain in the game #W2.
Flattening of Tenkan Sen, Kijun Sen and the Senkou Span A & B indicative of consolidation before a major move #W2 #W3.


Wrap: Bears look keep the Index below the Tenkan Sen #W2. Bulls still eye the ATH.