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Sunday, August 4, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 29 July to 02 Aug: 2013 - Bull High



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 02 Aug'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 02 Aug'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 02 Aug'13




Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
Support & Resistance:
  • Index has also the Day channel Top, Week Channel Top and Month Channel Top as resistances on the upside #M1,#W1 & #D1.
Moving Averages:  
  • Bulls keep above the 13 SMA on the Week Charts #W1.
  • Index slips below the 5 EMA on the EOD charts - again last week #D1.
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Day charts #D1 choose to deflect..
Indicators:
  • RSI 13 slides below oversold & Divergence to Price is apparent #W2.
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 (now on EOD) stays oversold  #D2.
  • Oscillator (now on EOM) pops into oversold - see earlier pops too #M2.


Bulls stay High.




Looking forward into the next Week:



Patterns:

Support & Resistance:
  • New All Time High and all the Channel Tops Red, Blue and White #D1, are the next resistances for the Bulls.
  • The 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace #M1 - is the next major support.
Moving Averages:
  • Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
  • 5 EMA & 13 SMA  #D1  - Deflection was good for Bulls.
  • Getting below the 13 SMA on the Week Charts #W1 important for Bears.
Indicators:
  • Oscillator #M2 keeping above oversold favors the Bulls - notice that its slipping down again..
  • RSI sliding below its MA #W2 (almost there) - would be good for Bears.



Bears hope one of the Channel Top Resistances hold, Bulls call for a new High and more #M1.







CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 29 July to 2 Aug: 2013 - Death Cross Watch 1



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 02 Aug'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 02 Aug'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Apr' 2013, onward - as on 02 Aug'13






Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

  • On the Medium Term EOW #3, previous week's 'High Wave' Candle gives the Bears more cheer.
  • June's 'Hanging Man' Candle & May's Shooting Star on the Long Term EOM #1 Charts - activate on cue at July end. 
Support & Resistance:
  • The 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' is the EXACT support for Bulls last week (Friday's low) #5.
  • The 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' is the approx resistance for the Bulls last week #5.
Moving Averages:
  • 50 SMA and 200 SMA poised to cross bearishly in a Death Cross (Black Arrow at #5).
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA in the Medium Term, remain crossed Bearishly #5.
  • Index closes below the critical 200 SMA on the Short Term  #5.
Indicators:
  • 'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 on the long term charts show Bulls at the center line.
  • MACD and its MA cross bearishly, MACD and Histogram ticks down #6.

Bears ride the 'High Wave' #3 some more, towards a Death Cross..




Looking Forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

Support & Resistance:
  • The 200 SMA #5 is now resistance - for the Bulls.
  • The 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' is support again  #5.
Moving Averages:
  • 200 SMA and 50 SMA on the Day Charts bearishly crossing with high Volumes would be a Death Cross  #5 - a deflection would see the Bulls catapult out of this dip - cross & recross would mean that August would range.. 
  • 13 SMA and 5 EMA on the Long Term #1 poised to Bearishly Cross (if below 5655) or Bullishly Deflect (if above 5655) for August.  
Indicators:
  • 'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 could see the Index bounce of its center line for a new Bull run.


Bulls see hope above 5655 - Bears seek to dive some more on the High Wave Candle's effect and the Death Cross's proximity.