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Sunday, August 4, 2013

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 29 July to 2 Aug: 2013 - Death Cross Watch 1



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 02 Aug'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 02 Aug'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Apr' 2013, onward - as on 02 Aug'13






Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

  • On the Medium Term EOW #3, previous week's 'High Wave' Candle gives the Bears more cheer.
  • June's 'Hanging Man' Candle & May's Shooting Star on the Long Term EOM #1 Charts - activate on cue at July end. 
Support & Resistance:
  • The 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' is the EXACT support for Bulls last week (Friday's low) #5.
  • The 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' is the approx resistance for the Bulls last week #5.
Moving Averages:
  • 50 SMA and 200 SMA poised to cross bearishly in a Death Cross (Black Arrow at #5).
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA in the Medium Term, remain crossed Bearishly #5.
  • Index closes below the critical 200 SMA on the Short Term  #5.
Indicators:
  • 'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 on the long term charts show Bulls at the center line.
  • MACD and its MA cross bearishly, MACD and Histogram ticks down #6.

Bears ride the 'High Wave' #3 some more, towards a Death Cross..




Looking Forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

Support & Resistance:
  • The 200 SMA #5 is now resistance - for the Bulls.
  • The 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' is support again  #5.
Moving Averages:
  • 200 SMA and 50 SMA on the Day Charts bearishly crossing with high Volumes would be a Death Cross  #5 - a deflection would see the Bulls catapult out of this dip - cross & recross would mean that August would range.. 
  • 13 SMA and 5 EMA on the Long Term #1 poised to Bearishly Cross (if below 5655) or Bullishly Deflect (if above 5655) for August.  
Indicators:
  • 'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 could see the Index bounce of its center line for a new Bull run.


Bulls see hope above 5655 - Bears seek to dive some more on the High Wave Candle's effect and the Death Cross's proximity.