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Monday, August 17, 2015

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - High Wave 2095 - Week 3 of August 2015.















Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • High Wave on the Weekly charts as the Third attempt at breaking below the 200 SMA on the Day charts succeeds, but fleetingly. Bulls pull up the index from near the Channel bottom #D1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Our support near the Day channel bottom and the monthly 13 SMA #M1, sent the Bulls back to a stronger position near the Weekly 5 SMA (2095). 
Moving Averages:  
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, in the medium term #W1, remain in a bearish deflection as the index closed below our mark, 2116, last week.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13, meanders in the middle of the range for some time now  #W2 - STS 34 joins this company #D1.

    Wrap:
    Bears break below the 200 SMA on the third  attempt, but fail to hold on #D1. 
    Bulls bounce back form the long term 13 SMA, to almost reach a critical 2095 by week close #D1.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • High Wave on the Medium Term Charts is active (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #W1.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • Daily 200 SMA and the Day channel bottom #D1, are again the supports that Bulls want want to stay above. Index has resistance at 2095 and the ATH. 
    Moving Averages:
    • On the EOW, 5 EMA will stay deflected, off the 13 SMA bearishly, if this week closes below 2095 #W1,
    Indicators:
    • STS 34, stuck in the mid lands #D2 along with the RSI 13 #W1.


    Wrap:
    Bulls, want to use current momentum to head out to the ATH #M1
    Bears want life below the Daily 200 SMA and Day Channel Bottom #D1.
    Both need to resolve 2095.



    Europe CAC 40 - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Stops - Week 3 of August 2015.






    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: 
    (click here for the previous post)

    Index bounces neatly off the Tenkan Sen in a huge red week with Bears closing below recent lows #W2.
    Chikou Span, within kissing distance of the Price line #W1.
    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B, steady #W3.
    Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrow and steady #W3.


    Wrap: 

    Bulls manage to apply brakes and stop just above the Kijun Sen #W2. 

    Despite the Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen cross, Bears fail to get the index below these lines #W2.


    Looking Forward into this Week:



    Bulls need to keep the Chikou Span deflecting off the Price line, to keep their advantage #W1.
    Index closing above the Kijun Sen & Tenkan Sen, (both strong supports last week) is good for Bulls #W2.

    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B is wide, making a thick Kumo - and a strong support to come #W3.
    Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen still in a bearish cross (Its called a 'Weak Bearish cross because it occurred when the index was Bullish i,e above the Kumo) #W2.



    Wrap:

    Index staying above the Tenkan Sen #W2, and Chikou Span above the Price line #W1, gives the Bulls the medium term screen and chance of a bounce.
    Unable to take advantage of the Bearish Cross of the Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen #W2,, the next Bear hope is to at least get below these lines.


    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls retest - Week 3 of August 2015.














    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

     

    Patterns:
    • Head & Shoulder formation now shown on the Week Charts,  continues as a possibility #W1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • The Index takes support at the August Pivot's S1 and Bulls retest the mid-line of the Month Channel #M1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA, is crossed bearishly only on the Day Screen #D1.
    Indicators:
    • On the Day chart, MACD and the histogram are near zero #D2.

    Wrap:

    Bulls come back from the S1 of the Month Pivot #M1, to clear all the MAs that we track.
    Bears give up weekly gains but hold the index at the mid-line of the Long Term charts #M1.





    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • H&S pattern on the Day Chart is still a possibility worth a study #D1 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) - Neckline for activation of the pattern is currently around 7900.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Bulls have support  at the S1 of the month pivot (approx. 8343) #M1, Resistance is at the same pivot's R1 (approx 8700) #M1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The Death Cross is active as long as the 50 SMA stays below the 200 SMA - gap between these MAs, is increasing #D1..
    Indicators:
    • Bears hope that the STS would cross below its MA this week #W2.


    Wrap :
    Bears seek to get back to last week's low and take out the month pivot S1 #M1.
    Bulls, now trading above all the MAs that we track, want to continue upwards, from the RS to the ATH (All Time High) #W1.



    China SSEC - Ichimoku Study - Greenback Bulls - Week 3 of August 2015.






    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: 
    (click here for the previous post)

    Bulls celebrate with back to back Green weekly candles #W2.
    Chikou Span steadies further, above the Price line #W1.Gap between the Senkou Span A & B  steady #W3.
    Gap between the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen narrows drastically #W2.


    Wrap: 

    Bulls back with Green on the screen once again. 

    Bears like the narrowing gap between the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen.


    Looking Forward into this Week:



    Index closing below the Kijun Sen (its called a 'weak bearish signal' as it occurred when the index was Bullish i,e. above the Kumo) still good for the Bears #W2.
    Bears need to get the Chikou Span below the Price line, to maintain edge #W1. 
    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B staying wide, makes a thick Kumo and a strong support for the Bulls, when they get there #W3.
    Gap between the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen narrow -  bullish deflection or bearish cross still on #W2.


    Wrap:

    Getting back above the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen #W2, priority for Bulls.
    Bearish cross of the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen #W2 along with a big red week is what the Bears pray for.