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Monday, March 23, 2015

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Thinning Kumo 3 - Week 4 of March 2015.








Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls surge up after closing above the Tenkan Sen last week #W2.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, gap steady #W2.
Senoku Span A & B, gap narrow and steady #W3.
Thinning Kumo couple of weeks away #W2.


Wrap: Bulls surge after last week's stop above the Tenkan Sen #W2.



Looking Forward into this Week:


Bears eye the Thinning Kumo #W2 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) for an opportunity to break into the Kumo.
Bearish Cross of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, at current range, next on Bear Agenda #W2.
Chikou Span at current altitude, can meet up with the price line in a few weeks #W1.


Wrap: Bulls look to stay above the Tenkan Sen and make new ATHs, Bears eye the Thinning Kumo #W2. 




S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Channel Support Works - Week 4 of March 2015.
















Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • After triggering a 3 Inside down, on the weekly charts, Bears drive down to the Day channel's bottom - Bulls manage a massive bounce from here #D1.
  • This month's candle is a Doji, which has gapped above the previous month as of now #M1.. 
Support & Resistance:
  • Index moves above all the MAs that we track, resistance to beat is the ATH #M1.
Moving Averages:  
    • The all important, 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the medium term screen, deflects Bullishly last week #D1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 is still in the 50s #W2.

    Wrap:
    Index bounces from support #D1, and heads close to the ATH #M1.





    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Bears eye the Doji made by this month's candle - hoping for an Evening Star formation #M1.
    • Bulls look to History (re-look) #M1 & #M3, and the Day Channel's Bottom line #D1, for a resumption of the Bull run.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • 5 EMA on the Daily Charts #D1, is the support that Bears want to slip below, while the Bulls want to clear the ATH #M1.
    Moving Averages:
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Week  Charts, would stay deflected  Bullishly above  2015 #W1.
    Indicators:
    • TSI, if resisted by the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace, would hold some cheer for the Bulls #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bears pray for an Evening Star and brace to hold the ATH #M1.
    Bulls trust History #M1 & #M3 and aim to clear the All time High (ATH). 




    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Hi 5 - Week 4 of March 2015.










    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)



    Patterns:
    • Previous week's Evening Star gives the Bears one more red candle #W1- Index says Hi to the Long Term 5 EMA with a touch and bounce #M1.
    • Bulls see their long term 'Three Outside Up' (last 4 candles) #M1. threatened by a potential Bearish engulfing (last 2 candles) #M1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • 5 EMA on the EOM (8555) #M1, was the exact support last week.
    • 5 EMA on the EOW (8777) #W1, was the clear resistance last week.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW, poised to cross bearishly or deflect bullishly #W1.
    Indicators:
    • STS slips below the over bought line #W2.


    Wrap:
    Bears after defending the Weekly Channel top and following it up with an 'Evening star' - make a red week and close below the wall #W1.
    Bulls take support on the Long Term 5 EMA #M1.




    Looking Forward into this Week:



    Patterns:
    • Previous week's Evening Star on the Medium Term Screen (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) is active #W1.
    • Long Term Charts, see the Three Outside Up (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) threatened by a possible Bearish Engulfing (last 2 candles) #M1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index resistances that the Bulls would want to get above this week, are 8684 (Wall for March 2015 and 8618.
    • Support Levels that the Bears want to get below, are S2 on the March Pivot #M1 and 8555 (5 EMA on the Monthly Charts).
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - these MA's are currently flat #D1.
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW, poised to cross bearishly or deflect bullishly - below or above 8618, respectively #W1.
    Indicators:
    • Bulls would want the STS, moving back above the overbought line, to demonstrate their domination of the Medium and Long Term Screens #W2.


    Wrap :
    Bulls look to support on the 5 EMA and the '3 outside up' #M1 on the Monthly charts, to get back above the Wall
    Bears depend on the medium term Channel top resistance, and the 'Evening Doji Star', to stay below the Wall #W1.



    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Resists - Week 4 of March 2015.







    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)


    Tenkan Sen resists the Index after the Cross - Bullls pull up before the Kijun Sen #W2.

    Senkou Span A & B - gap steadies W3.
    The gap between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, increases #W2


    Wrap: Index resisted by the Tenkan Sen, bulls keep it above the Kijun Sen
     #W2




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    A Bearish, Chikou Span cross, with Price line, at current altitude, will need a few more weeks #W1.

    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen had deflected bullishly - study of previous deflections and behaviour of price, after the deflection, continues to be useful #W2.


    Wrap: Bulls look to getting above the Tenkan Sen, where as Bears press for life below the 'Kijun Sen' 
    #W2.