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Monday, October 21, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 'ATH' Once more :- Week: 14 October to 18 October, 2013.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 18 Oct'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 18 Oct'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from July'2013, onward - as on 18 Oct'13




Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • After holding the 'Three Inside up' (study) in progress #M1, last week, Bulls rise to new 'All Time Highs' (ATH).  
Support & Resistance:
  • The short Term Channel Top was resistance for the Bulls last week  #D1.
  • 5 EMA on the EOD was the support #D1.
Moving Averages:  
  • Aggressive Bulls keep above the 5 EMA on EOD all last week #D1.
Indicators:
  • RSI 13 below the overbought #W2.
  • Month Chart Oscillator remains below the over-bought, after the August Close #M2.


Wrap:
Bulls keep the 'Three Inside Up' in progress on the Long Term .. and make a new 'All Time High'




Looking forward into the next Week:


Patterns:
  • On the Long Term Chart the Bullish 'Three  Inside Up' (study) continues to be in-progress for October ..
Support & Resistance:
  • 34 EMA  and 200 SMA on the Short Term Chart are Support for the Bulls, while the 'All Time High' Line and the Channel Tops #D1 are resistances.
Moving Averages:
  • Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
Indicators:
  • RSI staying below the oversold, with its divergence to Price apparent #W2, plus for Bears.
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 staying in the over bought zone, works for the Bulls #D1


Wrap:
Bulls expect the 'Three Inside Up' #M1, forms in October - Bears see 'life' below the 5 EMA on the EOW #W1.





The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Bull Rise :- Week: 14 October to 18 October, 2013.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 18 Oct'13



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls get higher above the Kijun Sen & Tenkan Sen #2.
Chikou Span still near the Price line #1.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrows #2.
Yo-yo in fortunes continue for Bulls and Bears..


Bulls keep the advantage.. 




Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bulls keep index above Kijun Sen, and retain the advantage #2.
Chikou Span's distance to Price line important - to be watched for cross or deflection #1.  
Widening gap between the Senkou Span A&B is a concern for Bears #3. 
Narrowing gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen should worry the Bulls #2.


Bulls need to stay above the Tenkan Sen while Bears pray the Tenkan Sen slips below the Kijun Sen #2.




CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Long Term 3 inside up ? :- Week: 14 October to 18 October, 2013.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 18 Oct'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 18 Oct'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2013, onward - as on 18 Oct'13



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:

  • As studied last couple of weeks - August and September Candles form a Bullish Harami #M1 - October Candle to-date looks like making it a Bullish 'Three Inside up' (study). 
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls keep above the 5 EMA on the EOD #D1 - which was support last week.
  • All time High beckons the Bulls #D1 and is the next resistance.
Moving Averages:
  • EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bearishly in a Death Cross ##D1. 
  • EOM - 5 EMA and 13 SMA cross Bullishly above 6003 #M1 - Bearish overhang lifts for now.
Indicators:
  • STS resistance line, seen last week, fails to hold back the Bulls #W2.


Wrap:
Bulls cleared 5915 (the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high'), the week before and move towards the  All time High ..



Looking Forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

  • The Bullish 'Three Inside Up' (study) forming on the Long Term Chart #M1 - continues to be focus area.
Support & Resistance:
  • The 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' (5915) is the support for the Index #D1.
  • Last 'All time high' is the resistance #D1.
Moving Averages:
  • 200 SMA and 50 SMA on the Day Charts remaining Bearishly Crossed #D1, keeps the Bulls under pressure. 
  • 50 SMA gets closer to the 200 SMA #D1, over the last week - Golden Cross watch on...
 Indicators:
  • STS resistance line which trumped the Bulls last couple of weeks breaks #W2.


Wrap:
Bears place their hopes on the Death Cross #D1 - Bulls eye the 'All time High' #W1.




BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - The Bear Line Up - 5 and still on :- Week: 14 October to 18 October, 2013.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 18 Oct'13



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku, can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)


The Senkou Span A&B #4 move higher but together  Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen also do the same #3, and they all now read 19190.47  - 5th week they all read the same #5.
Bulls extend gains reaching up to clear recent highs with third green candle in a row #2.


Despite Bulls clearing recent Highs #2, Bears hold on to their last line of defense #5..





Looking Forward into the next Week:


The Senkou Span B crossing above the Senkou Span A #4 or the Tenkan Sen above the Kijun Sen #3 would give the Bulls control of the Medium Term Screen completely.

Bears manage to hold the line up  #5 despite the Bull pressure. 
Chikou Span moves clear of Price Line - deflection or cross some time away #1.


Tenacious Bears desperately hold their line #5 - Bulls seek to complete the kill #3 & #4.