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Monday, January 4, 2016

US - S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Channel wars - Week 1 of January 2016.











Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
.
  • The combination of the Big 'W' and the new Day Channel #D1, make a neat 'Cup and handle' pattern. Price oscillating in the Handle (or Day Channel) #D1 for the past couple of weeks.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index was in and about the 200 SMA, after returning near the Channel Top (Day Chart) #D1 - it  closed below all the MAs that we track across all three screens.
Moving Averages:  
    • The 5 EMA on the Daily Screen is crossed bullishly above the 13 SMA. 
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13, above the 50s  #W2.  


    Wrap:
    Bears again hold the index to a lower high, defending the Day Channel Top #D1.
    Bulls keep index in the 'Handle' of the 'Cup and Handle' pattern #D1.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • The 'W' pattern on the Day Chart is still in play (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #D1.
    • A 'Cup and Handle' pattern is s possibility on the charts #D1, #W1 & #M1 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) so long as a Handle is viable on any relevant time frame.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • Day Channel bottom (pink) #D1 is support.  Index Resistance for a Bull break through is the is the Day Channel's Top #D1,
    Moving Averages:
    • The 5 EMA on the Daily Screen will remain crossed bullishly above the 13 SMA, if the index closes above 2032 on the first trading day of 2016 #D1.
    Indicators:
    • STS in middle ground #D2.


    Wrap:

    Bulls hope for rewards from the big 'W' pattern #D1, with a breakout from the ATH #M1.

    Bears push for a breakdown at the handle or the Day Channel and life below 2000 #D1..


    India - CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Long Leg Doji - Week 1 of January 2016.










    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

    Patterns:
    • Following a 'Piercing Pattern', on the weekly chart, index saw lift off with two green weeks #W1.
    • December's Candle was a Long Legged Doji #M1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index found support at the weekly 5 EMA #W1, resistance was around the daily 50 SMA #D1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA, poised to cross Bullishly or deflect bearishly on the Week Chart #W1.
    Indicators:
    • On the week charts the STS #W1, finally sees traction to clear the over sold zone.

    Wrap:

    Bulls take off from support at the Week Channel's bottom and  enjoy the rewards of the Piercing Pattern, for the second week running #W1.
    Bears defend the Monthly 5 EMA #M1.





    Looking Forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Piercing Pattern (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) is active on the Medium Term Chart #W1.
    • The Long Term Chart's focus moves to the Long Legged Doji (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) and its implications #M1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index has immediate support at the 50 SMA on the Day Chart #D1. Resistance is at 8040 (the 76.4% retrace of the 2011 low to the ATH#W1.
    Moving Averages: 
    Indicators:
    • The MACD moves above the zero #D2.


    Wrap :
    Bulls aim to clear the Day Channel top, with a Higher High #D1.
    Bears hope to defend 8040.

    Brent Crude Oil - Ichimoku Study - Hold - Week 1 of January 2016.





    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: 
    (click here for the previous post)

    Bulls hold at the new low after a green week #W2.

    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B, increases #W3.
    Gap between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, reduces #W2.

    Wrap: 

    After the Index makes a lower low, Bulls hold the low.



    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Chikou Span is a long way from the price line  #W2.

    Senkou Span A & B  crossing or deflcting helps the Bull or Bear Causes respectively #W3.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, headed for a cross or deflection with these lines getting closer #W2.


    Wrap:

    Bears look to keep the index below the Tenkan Sen, and make some lower lows #W2.
    An oversold bounce or a bullish cross of the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen #W2, is the next Bull hope.