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Saturday, December 31, 2011

S&P End of Month - December 2011

S&P End of Month - December 2011

We were studying this chart for October and November this year. Last month we estimated that the 1285  level EOM December is what the long term Bear would throw in the hat at ..... The closing for this month is only 1258.  S&P can continue to make more attempts at breaching the channel's bottom - however the Bears would be impressed only if 1303+ happens to be the closing for Jan 2012. 

S&P 500 - EOW Analysis - Week starting 26 Dec 2011

S&P 500 - EOW Analysis - Week starting 26 Dec 2011
In our last post on this subject we had looked at the possibility of the channel breach happening in 2011 .. one now sees the channels intact as above. Breach or retreat from the upper channel line (of the downward /falling channel)  is what one shall study early next year...

Ichimoku Study - BSE Sensex - End 2011

BSE  Sensex - Month Chart - End of 2011 - with the Ichimoku  Cloud

This study is rather long term - appropriate for a new year - so here is wishing you a happy 2012 :) - happy learning !!

The Ichimoku Cloud is a versatile indicator that defines support, resistance, identifies trend direction, gauges momentum and gives one trading signals.

The Ichimoku parts - see chart above..

The Tenkan Sen - red line
The Kijun Sen - blue line
The Chikou Span - purple line
The Senkou Span A - black line
The Senkou Span B - grey line
The Kumo - grey shaded area

Read up the funda on this at the reference link at the bottom of this post to learn about this indicator..

Our observations using the Monthly chart - each candle is one month - period 2004 to 2011 - 7 year study.
Past:
1. Indian Equity markets were in Bull mode from 2004.
2. The crash of 2008 brought the market into the kumo (grey shade) - just about neutral / flat zone (not even bear zone)!!
3. Since the 2009 rise from the kumo - it was soon back to Bull mode.

Present:
1. We have a weak kijun sen (blue) cross Sell signal as the recent bearish cross happens above the kumo.
2. We have a weak tenkan sen (red) /kijun sen (blue) cross Sell signal - as the bearish cross happens above the kumo.
3. The current close price (as depicted by the chikou span - purple) is lower than the price 26 periods ago,  this indicates that there is a potential for more bearish price action to come.
4. The price is above the Kumo at present and that is Bull zone.
5. There is a Senkou Span Cross coming up which may be Bullish based on present view...

Some useful free links I googled -

To create Ichimoku Charts - if your chart provider does not have it...

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

To learn about the Ichimoku Charts




Update - End of Day : 30 December 2011

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 30 12 2011

Our note at the previous post 'Looking forward' mentions two scenarios - the Bull scenario started off in the first half of  the week and the Bear scenario took over in the second half - there was also a Bullish crossover of the 5 EMA to above the 13 SMA followed by a Bearish cross of the same averages this very same week as seen at the right end  of the chart above. A hard fought week - Bears won.