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Monday, April 14, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Shooting Star gives red - Week 3 of April 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 11 Mar'14


S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 11 Mar'14


S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Oct'2013, onward - as on 11 Mar'14




Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • Bulls lose advantage as the shooting star on the EOW gives a red week - last candle is a Closing Black Marubozu #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index breaks below support at the Daily channel bottom and MVWAP34 #D1. Index closes below the weekly 13 SMA #W1. 
Moving Averages:  
  • On the Day Chart, the 5 EMA and 13 SMA cross Bearishly #D1 and on the Week charts they are close to deflect or cross #W1. 
Indicators:
  • RSI 13, meanders below the 50s #W2.
  • TSI seen slipping below its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.


Wrap:
Index closes the week below the crucial 13 SMA on the Weekly charts - Bears take over the short term charts.




Looking forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • The weekly 'Shooting Star' (Study link herehere or elsewherecandle is active  #W1. 
  • The Continuation Pattern i.e Closing Black Marubozu is also active (Study link herehere or elsewhere)
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls see support at the new Daily Channel Bottom #D1, while the Week Channel Top #W1 remains resistance.
Moving Averages:
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW #W1 would cross bearishly at a Index reading below 1814.  
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4, slipping into the over-sold zone, works for the Bears #D2. 


Wrap:
Bears look to get below 1814 - Bulls need to get back above the weekly 13 SMA #W1 i.e. 1836..



The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Stand-off near ATH continues - Week 3 of April 2014.


Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 11 Mar'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bull - Bear stand-off  continues around the ATH #W2.

Senoku Span A & B gap widens #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrows as in a broad deflection #W2.
At present height, the Chikou span seen running into the Price Line #W1.


Wrap: Index on pause near ATH - broad ranging continues for 15th week #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Gap between Senoku Span A & B, if holding steady or increasing - good for Bulls #W3.
Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would show direction going forward before Price line gets too close to the Kumo $W2.
Bulls wary of the Chikou span bearishly crossing the Price line #W1.


Wrap: Bulls want the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen staying apart #W2, Bears look to run into the Kumo soon #W3.