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Saturday, October 6, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 01 October to 05 October, 2012 - Bulls stretch to move up again.



S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price move)  (or) EOM Chart: 
S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - 05 October, 2012.
Above is the Month Chart - EOM - analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward





S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price move) (or) EOW Chart:
S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - 05 October, 2012.
Above is the Week Chart - EOW -  analyzing Data from Q2-Q3 2012, onward.





S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move)  (or) EOD Chart:
S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  05 October, 2012.
Above is the Day Chart - EOD -  analyzing Data from Sept 2012, onward.






Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)
Bears failed to keep it below the 5 EMA on the Medium and Short Term Screens (4,6).
Bulls took off from their support, that we identified at the MVWAP 34, on the EOD (6).
Follow up action on the 'Three Inside Down' (4), was in favor of the Bulls.
Oversold state (2,5), did favor the Bulls as discussed.
The 5 EMA crosses above the 13 SMA on the EOD (6) - to complete a Bull week.
Bulls made a renewed attempt at the red Month Channel top (1) and the break point of 1503 for this month.  




Looking forward into the next Week:
Taking it it below the 5 EMA on the EOD and EOW - is the first task of the Bears.
The Channel Top (1) Break number is 1503, after which next peak for the Bull to conquer is 1577, which is the high of Oct' 2007.
Support (3) is at 1363 which is the 23.6% retrace (Fibonacci) from the Oct'07 high to the Mar'09 Low, as shown on the Long Term Chart above. 
RSI remaining below the MA (5) gives the Bears hope.
Month Channel top (1) i.e 1503, is where the Bears have their backs against the wall.
After 4 weekly candles(4) showing consolidation - and Bears holding the last top - Bulls need to breakout from here, else lose their advantage to the Bear Camp.


CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 01 October to 05 October, 2012 - Channel top action




Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 05 October, 2012.
Above is the Month Chart - EOM -  analyzing Data from 2008 onward. 





Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 05 October, 2012.
Above is the Week Chart - EOW -  analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward.





Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices  (or) EOD Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 05 October, 2012.
Above is the Day Chart - EOD - analyzing Data from May 2012, onward. 





Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)
Bulls breakout of the EOD channel (5) - only to slip back inside, on a crazy Friday(last).
Divergence at the MACD (6) persists, the MACD and its Signal Line are yet to cross.
The short fuse indicator (2) turns down, indicating the effect of this month's candle, to-date.
STS in oversold (4) indicates Bull power.
Bulls remain strong, and above the 5 EMA, on all three screens.




Looking Forward into the next Week:
Bulls are in a good place.
Bulls look at taking out the EOW channel top (3) after clearing the EOD Channel top (5).
A massive Pullback to the Monthly Channel's Green bottom line (1) - is the Bull agenda.
Remaining above the 5 EMA on all the three screens next week, would be essential for above. 
Gap between the 50 SMA and 200 SMA on the EOD, continued to widen steadily, after we 'Welcomed Back' the Golden Cross, 10 weeks ago. 
Divergence at the MACD (6) holds promise for the Bears, watch out if the Signal line crosses the MACD during the week.



The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 01 October to 05 October, 2012 - Bulls get going




                               .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 
Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as marked on chart below:

Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal (B)
The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)
The Kijun sen cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (K)
Tenkan Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Te)
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish  Signal (T)



DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud: 
DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 05 October, 2012.



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)
Chikou Span - moves away form the price line (a).
The Oscillator ticks up, -ve divergence is persistent (c).
Support for index (b) is near the Tenkan Sen (red line)




Looking Forward into the next Week:
Staying above the MVWAP 34, the Index sights the 2007 highs next.
The Bull action of last week - sends the faster Tenkan Sen (b) soaring up - supporting the Price line now.
The last 4 candles show consolidation - a break should be in the air - one watches the action near the Tenkan Sen for the week.



BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 01 October to 05 October, 2012 - Bulls inch ahead



                         .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 

Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as shown on chart below:

The Tenkan Sen Cross:  Weak  Bullish   Signal (Te)
The Senoku Span Cross:  Neutral  Bullish  Signal (Ss)
The Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral  Bullish Signal (K)
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong  Bullish Signal (T) 
The Kumo Break-out: Bullish Signal (B)  
The Chikou Span Cross:  Strong   Bullish Signal (Cc)  



BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:
The BSE  Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 05 October, 2012.



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)
The Chikou Span rears up again (a).
The last Chikou Span Cross (cC) was the inflection point for the current Bull run.
The Senoku span Cross (Ss) started the bulls moving from the Kumo.



Looking forward into the next Week:
Bears look to reaching the Tenkan Sen to start making an impact.
Staying above the Kumo - advantage is with the Bulls.
The Thinning Kumo (for next two candles) is an advantage for the Bears.