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Sunday, September 29, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bears take short term :- Week: 23 September to 27 September: 2013.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 27 Sept'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 27 Sept'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from July'2013, onward - as on 27 Sept'13





Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • 'Three  Inside Up' studied week before last, takes a breather  #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • The short Term 5 EMA was resistance for the Bulls last week  #D1.
  • Day Channel Bottom #D1 and the 5EMA on the EOW #W1 were support.
Moving Averages:  
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA stay crossed Bearishly on the EOD charts #D1.
  • Index keeps above the 5 EMA on the Medium and Long Term Charts #W1, #M1.
Indicators:
  • RSI 13 returns from the overbought #W2.
  • Month Chart Oscillator remains below the over-bought, after the August Close #M2.

Wrap:
Bears get their wish and stay below the 5 EMA (EOD) all week, Bulls retain the Medium and Long Term..


Looking forward into the next Week:


Patterns:
  • On the Medium Term Chart the 'Three  Inside Up' which we studied using links from herehere or elsewhere, is still active.
Support & Resistance:
  • 34 EMA on the Short Term Chart is the nearest Support for the Bulls, while the new 'All Time High' #D1 is resistance.
  • Beyond these the 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace #M1 - is the next major support and the Month Channel Top (blue) is the resistance seen, #M1.
Moving Averages:
  • Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
  • Staying below the 5 SMA on the EOD #D1 important for Bulls.
Indicators:
  • Oscillator #M2 keeping below oversold favors the Bears.
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 getting back to the over bought zone, will work for the Bulls #D1

Wrap:
Bulls see the 'Three Inside Up' #W1, continuing the up-move - Bears want life below the 5 EMA on the EOW, next #W1.




CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bear Zone :- Week: 23 September to 27 September: 2013.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 27 Sept'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 27 Sept'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2013, onward - as on 27 Sept'13




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:

  • Last week's 'High Wave' candle with high volume sweeps the Bulls off their feet #3 #4.
Support & Resistance:
  • 200 SMA on the EOD was the support the Bears cracked late last week #5. 
  • 5915, the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' #5 fell early last week.
Moving Averages:
  • EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bearishly in a Death Cross #5. 
  • EOM - Index stays above the 13 SMA #1, but the 5 EMA and 13 SMA stay Bearishly Crossed - Bearish overhang remains.
Indicators:
  • STS near resistance #4.
  • MACD and its MA touch - Histogram at zero #6.

Wrap:
After breaking into the Bull Zone (above the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high').. Index slips below the 200 SMA.



Looking Forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

  • The High Wave candlestick we studied last week (herehere or elsewhere) remains active.
Support & Resistance:
  • The 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' (5915) is the new resistance for the Index #5.
  • 50 SMA is the next support for Bulls #5.
Moving Averages:
  • 200 SMA and 50 SMA on the Day Charts remaining Bearishly Crossed #5, keeps the Bulls under pressure. 
  • Bear overhang of the Long Term #1, breaks with the 5 EMA and 13 SMA crossing Bullishly - magic number Bulls need to clear in Sept'13 is 6016.
 Indicators:
  • STS resistance worth a watch #4.

Wrap:

Bears need to stay below 5915 to remain in the game. Current Bull run resumes if Index gets back above the 200 SMA #5.