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Sunday, September 29, 2013

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bear Zone :- Week: 23 September to 27 September: 2013.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 27 Sept'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 27 Sept'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2013, onward - as on 27 Sept'13




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:

  • Last week's 'High Wave' candle with high volume sweeps the Bulls off their feet #3 #4.
Support & Resistance:
  • 200 SMA on the EOD was the support the Bears cracked late last week #5. 
  • 5915, the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' #5 fell early last week.
Moving Averages:
  • EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bearishly in a Death Cross #5. 
  • EOM - Index stays above the 13 SMA #1, but the 5 EMA and 13 SMA stay Bearishly Crossed - Bearish overhang remains.
Indicators:
  • STS near resistance #4.
  • MACD and its MA touch - Histogram at zero #6.

Wrap:
After breaking into the Bull Zone (above the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high').. Index slips below the 200 SMA.



Looking Forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

  • The High Wave candlestick we studied last week (herehere or elsewhere) remains active.
Support & Resistance:
  • The 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' (5915) is the new resistance for the Index #5.
  • 50 SMA is the next support for Bulls #5.
Moving Averages:
  • 200 SMA and 50 SMA on the Day Charts remaining Bearishly Crossed #5, keeps the Bulls under pressure. 
  • Bear overhang of the Long Term #1, breaks with the 5 EMA and 13 SMA crossing Bullishly - magic number Bulls need to clear in Sept'13 is 6016.
 Indicators:
  • STS resistance worth a watch #4.

Wrap:

Bears need to stay below 5915 to remain in the game. Current Bull run resumes if Index gets back above the 200 SMA #5.