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Monday, November 3, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Hanging Man with a Broadening Top - Week 1 of November 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 31 Oct'14


S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 31 Oct'14



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Jan'14, onward - as on 31 Oct'14





Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • October Candle is a Green Hanging Man #M1.
  • Index rises from the Day Channel Bottom to ATH - Possible Broadening Top (see Megaphone pattern) in progress on the Day Charts #D1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls after defending the Month channel bottom on the EOM #M1, push for a new ATH #D1.
  • Bears however hold the previous ATH, by last week end #W1.
Moving Averages:  
    • 5 EMA and 13 SMA, touch for a Bullish Cross or Bearish deflection #W1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 meanders into the 60s #W2.

    Wrap:
    Bulls take off from the Long Term Channel bottom #M1 with a weekly Hammer #W1, and now top the chart with a monthly Hanging Man #M1. 
    Bears defend the ATH #W1 and present a Megaphone #D1.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Hanging Man (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) active in the Long Term screen #M1.
    • Broadening Top (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) forming on the Day Chart needs to be watched #D1.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • Broadening Top Pattern's Top line #D1, and the All Time High (ATH) are resistances.
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA cross Bullishly, if index closes this week above 1985, this is the next decent Support #W1.
    Moving Averages:
    • The Index is currently above all the MAs that we track.
    Indicators:
    • TSI holds above the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls after hammering their way to the All Time High (ATH), with some help from the Broadening Top #D1, face the Hanging Man now.
    Bears pray the Broadening Top and Hanging Man Combination works in their favor.


    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - ATH - Week 1 of November 2014.



    Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 31 Oct'14



    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bulls after the kick off from the Kumo, get above the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen and go to a new ATH #W2.

    Chikou Span deflection off the Price line strengthens the Bull cause #W1.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen still in Touch #W2.
    Senoku Span A & B gap is narrow and steady #W3.



    Wrap: Bulls bounce off the Kumo and use the Chikou Span deflection, to make a new ATH #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bears aim for a journey back to the Kumo #W2.
    Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, is now in progress #W2.
    Chikou Span staying above the Price line, is the current Bull ask #W1.
    Bearish cross of the Senoku Span A-B is the Bull ask #W3.


    Wrap: Bears seek to get back to the Kumo #W2 - Bulls hope for a Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen #W1.


    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls Persist - Week 1 of November 2014.



    Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 31 Oct'14


    Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 31 Oct'14



    Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 31 Oct'14



    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


    Patterns:
    • Evening Doji Star fails as Bulls clear 7964 the previous week and make a new ATH last week #M1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index moves all the way from Monthly Pivot to the R2, last week #M1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW, deflecting the previous week, sets up the Bull charge to a new All Time High (ATH) #W1.
    Indicators:
    • MACD above the zero line, divergence to price apparant #D2.


    Wrap:
    Index reaches R2 of the October Pivot as Bulls dominate all screens, Bears lose advantage but defend previous channel top #D1 




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • October candle is a Closing White Marubozu (Study Links herehere or elsewhere),  same is now active in the long term #M1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index supports that the Bulls want to stay above, are the 5 EMA on the Week Chart #W1 and 8171 (November Wall).
    • Bears look to keep the Index below the old EOD channel #D1 and aim for sub 8000. 
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - the MA's are currently back to diverging #D1.
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW stay Bullishly deflected 
    Indicators:
    • STS staying in the overbought, continues to work for the Bulls #W2.


    Wrap :
    Staying above the November Pivot, and making new ATHs are Priority for the Bulls.
    Bears seek to get back in the game by defending the old EOD channel top #D1.



    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bull Soar - Week 1 of November 2014.



    BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 31 Oct'14



    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bulls soar above the Tenkan Sen #W2.
    Senkou Span A & B - gap steady #W3.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap also steady #W2


    Wrap: Index uses the resistance of the last high, moves above the Tenkan Sen and soar above previous ATHs 
    #W2




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Senkou Span 'A & B' diverging, is good for Bulls #W3.
    A Bearish, Chikou Span cross with Price line, at current altitude, will need a few months #W1.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen deflecting is also a few weeks away by current trends #W2


    Wrap: Bears seek to get t
    he index below the Tenkan Sen, Bulls focus on making new ATHs  #W2.