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Monday, February 17, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls hammer up - Week 3 of February 2014.




S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 14 Feb'14




S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 14 Feb'14




S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Oct'2013, onward - as on 14 Feb'14




Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

  • Bulls use the Hammer Candle at the bottom of the dive to go green another week #W1. 
  • Month Screen shows a 'Deliberation Candle Pattern - 3 green candles' followed by the Jan and Feb'14 candles #M1,
Support & Resistance:
  • Desperate Bears fail to defend the 13 SMA on the Week charts #W1 - Bulls get fresh life above the MVWAP 34 #D1.
Moving Averages:  
  • On the Week Chart #W1 and Day Charts #D1, the 5 EMA bullishly crosses above the 13 SMA,  
Indicators:
  • RSI 13, meanders in the 50s #W2 while the Stochastic makes it to the over-bought  #D1


Wrap:
Bulls hammer two green weeks in a row - Bears lose hold of all 3 time-frames and look to the ATH for defense.




Looking forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • The 'Deliberation Candle Pattern' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) needs consideration #M1. 
  • Week Chart's Hammer (Study link herehere or elsewhere) is still active #W1. 
Support & Resistance:
  • MVWAP 34 on the Short Term Chart is now support for the Bulls, while the All Time High (ATH) #M1 is resistance.
Moving Averages:
  • Bears need to get the index below the 13 SMA (1814) #W1 to get back into the game - Bulls want the a new ATH #M1.
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4, staying in the over-bought, works for the Bulls #D2.  


Wrap:
Bears desperately want to get the index back below the 13 SMA #W1 (1814) - Bulls seek momentum to make a new ATH ..




The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Kijun Sen rewards - Week 3 of February 2014.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 14 Feb'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls closing above the Kijun Sen for the previous two weeks - get rewarded, with a take off above the Tenkan Sen #W2.,
Senoku Span A & B steady #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen steady #W2.


Wrap: Bulls use support at the Kijun Sen and take off #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:

Senoku Span A & B flattening as also Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen indicates indecision #W3.
Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would show direction going forward $W2.


Wrap: Bulls look to stay above the Tenkan Sen - Bears want a bearish cross of the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen #W2.




CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - High Wave - Week 3 of February 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 14 Feb'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 14 Feb'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 14 Feb'14




Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • December & January candles formed a 'Bearish Engulfing' #M1.
  • The EOW gives us a 'High Wave' candle last week #W1. 
Support & Resistance:
  • Index again closes below the February Wall (6076), Bulls again defend 5975 (76.4% Fibonacci Retrace of the 'Dec 2011' Low to ATH ) #W1 to close the week just below the Wall.
Moving Averages:
  • The medium term 5 EMA remains in a Bearish Cross with the 13 SMA #W1, even as in the short term these averages 'meet up' for a cross or deflection #D1. 
Indicators:
  • STS slips below the Support line shown, which now becomes resistance line for Bulls #W2. 



Wrap:
Bears dominate the medium term charts during the week - Bulls regain the short term just at week close.




Looking Forward into this Week:

 

Patterns:
  • Bearish 'Three Outside down' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart #M1 fails to materialize, if February closes above January's close.   
  • Bearish 'Three Outside down' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Medium Term Chart, #W1 is on hold due to the 'High Wave' Candle's (Study link here, here or elsewhere) appearance. 
Support & Resistance:
  • 13 SMA Weekly (6191), is resistance for the week, while 5975 (76.4% Fibonacci Retrace of the Last Major Low to ATH' ) #W1 and 200 SMA #D1 remain the current supports.
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA giving way as the two SMAs start to converge #D1. 
Indicators:
  • STS keeping below its support line, works for the Bears #W1, while the MACD crossing above its MA, helps the Bulls #D2.



Wrap:
Bulls seek to get above the Wall and target the 13 SMA #W1 - Bears next need to get below the '76.4% Fibonacci Retrace of the Last Major Low to ATH' (5975) #W1.


BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Chikou Span Slide 2 - Week 3 of February 2014.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 14 Feb'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls stay below the Tenkan Sen  #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - converge #W3.
Distance between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen contracts #W2
Chikou Span slides still in no man's zone - avoiding a bearish cross #W1.  


Wrap: Index stays between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen #W2.





Looking Forward into this Week:


Chikou Span needs to cover some ground to meet the Price Line in the next few weeks - thus postponing a bearish cross #W1.
Bears need to stay below the Tenkan Sen to remain in the game #W2.
Convergence of Tenkan Sen, Kijun Sen and the Senkou Span A & B favors Bears  #W2 #W3.


Wrap: Bears eye the Kumo  #W2. Bulls comfort is in the Chikou Span staying above the Price line #W1.