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Monday, February 17, 2014

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - High Wave - Week 3 of February 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 14 Feb'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 14 Feb'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 14 Feb'14




Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • December & January candles formed a 'Bearish Engulfing' #M1.
  • The EOW gives us a 'High Wave' candle last week #W1. 
Support & Resistance:
  • Index again closes below the February Wall (6076), Bulls again defend 5975 (76.4% Fibonacci Retrace of the 'Dec 2011' Low to ATH ) #W1 to close the week just below the Wall.
Moving Averages:
  • The medium term 5 EMA remains in a Bearish Cross with the 13 SMA #W1, even as in the short term these averages 'meet up' for a cross or deflection #D1. 
Indicators:
  • STS slips below the Support line shown, which now becomes resistance line for Bulls #W2. 



Wrap:
Bears dominate the medium term charts during the week - Bulls regain the short term just at week close.




Looking Forward into this Week:

 

Patterns:
  • Bearish 'Three Outside down' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart #M1 fails to materialize, if February closes above January's close.   
  • Bearish 'Three Outside down' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Medium Term Chart, #W1 is on hold due to the 'High Wave' Candle's (Study link here, here or elsewhere) appearance. 
Support & Resistance:
  • 13 SMA Weekly (6191), is resistance for the week, while 5975 (76.4% Fibonacci Retrace of the Last Major Low to ATH' ) #W1 and 200 SMA #D1 remain the current supports.
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA giving way as the two SMAs start to converge #D1. 
Indicators:
  • STS keeping below its support line, works for the Bears #W1, while the MACD crossing above its MA, helps the Bulls #D2.



Wrap:
Bulls seek to get above the Wall and target the 13 SMA #W1 - Bears next need to get below the '76.4% Fibonacci Retrace of the Last Major Low to ATH' (5975) #W1.