Monday, August 25, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Touch 'n gone up - Week 4 of August 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 22 Aug'14


S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 22 Aug'14


S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Jan'14, onward - as on 22 Aug'14




Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • Long Term Bullish Engulfing forming - see the last two Month candles #M1.
  • Weekly candle shows up as a 'Opening White (Green in our chart) Marubozu' #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index pops out of old EOD channel - new channel leads to new ATH #D1.
  • Index gets a Bullish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the EOW last week #W1.
Moving Averages:  
    • Bulls close the week above all the MAs we track on all screens.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 meanders in the 60s #W2.
    • TSI under pressure. to continue holding, above its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.

    Wrap:
    Bears lose all screens, Bulls get to a new ATH.




    Looking forward into this Week:


    Patterns:

    • 'Opening White (Green in our chart) Marubozu' (Study Links herehere or elsewhere)  on the EOW is active #W1.
    • Long Term Bullish Engulfing forming (Study) - to be watched for #M1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • EOD channel Top #D1 and the ATH are resistances.
    • The meeting point for the Medium Term 5 EMA & 13 SMA (1955) #W1, is the support Bears need to break.
    Moving Averages:
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW, will stay on Bullish deflection course, if Index keeps above 1955, this week #W1
    Indicators:
    • TSI holding above the Fibonacci level 76.4%, works for the Bulls #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls seek continued deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA #W1, by keeping above 1955.
    Bears hope to defend the EOD top line #D1. 



    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Bull Highs - Week 4 of August 2014.



    Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 22 Aug'14



    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Saved by the Kijun Sen. Bulls clear the Tenkan Sen and head for the ATH #W2.

    Gap between Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen flat #W2.
    Gap between  Senoku Span A-B flat #W3.


    Wrap: Bulls bouncing off the Kijun Sen head for the ATH #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Keeping above the Tenkan Sen - Bulls look for new Highs again #W2.
    Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would continue to show direction going forward #W2.
    Chikou span reaches for the Highs #W1.


    Wrap: Bulls want life above the ATH following the Chikou Span Deflection, Bears want to close this week below the Tenkan Sen #W2.



    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls rock above the wall - Week 4 of August 2014.



    Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 22 Aug'14


    Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 22 Aug'14


    Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 22 Aug'14





    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


    Patterns:
    • Bulls slip Index above the August Wall. July Candle's High Wave effect, keeps the Bulls going #M1. 
    • Weekly 'Above the Stomach' Pattern, also gives the Bulls a boost #W1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Bulls keep above the 5 EMA on the EOD all week #D1
    • Bears defend the EOD channel top after Bulls make a new ATH #M1
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD stay bullishly crossed to give Bulls continued dominance of all screens #D1.
    Indicators:
    • MACD and its MA are Bullishly Crossed #D2. 
    • STS below its resistance line - but remains in the over bought #W1.

    Wrap:
    Bulls dominate all screen and make a new High, Bears defend EOD channel top line #D1.




    Looking Forward into this Week:



    Patterns:
    • July candle's High Wave effect (Study links herehere or elsewhere) is on #W1.
    • The 'Above the Stomach' Pattern (Study links herehere or elsewhere) near the Highs, warrant a careful look #W1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Bears seek to get &keep  below the R1 of the Month Pivot (7895) #M1.
    • Index  faces resistance at the EOD channel top line #D1. 
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - however the MA's are converging #D1.
    Indicators:
    • STS slipping below the overbought, augers well for the Bears #W1.


    Wrap:
    Bulls look to defend the R1 of the Month Pivot #M1 and make new ATHs.
    Bears look to keep below the EOD channel top #D1.




    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bulls up - Week 4 of August 2014.


    BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 22 Aug'14


    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bulls move up from recent lows and cross the Tenkan Sen #W2.
    Senkou Span A & B - gap dips #W3.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap also dips #W2


    Wrap: Bulls climb above Tenkan Sen 
    #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    The Chikou Span, keeping current altitude, will need a couple of months to meet the price-line #W1.
    Bears look to defend recent Highs #W2.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap narrowing favors the Bears #W2.


    Wrap: Bears look to get t
    he index below the Tenkan Sen and break recent lows , Bull focus is to keep above the Tenkan Sen to break the ATH #W2.


    Monday, August 18, 2014

    S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Touch 'n go - Week 3 of August 2014.



    Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 14 Aug'14


    Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 14 Aug'14



    Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 14 Aug'14




    Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

    Patterns:
    • Three Inside Up fails to form on the Weekly Charts #W1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index pops out of last week's EOD channel - new channel seen #D1.
    • Index closes exactly at the 13 SMA (1955), just above the 5 EMA (1950) but fails to ensure a Bullish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the EOW (1957) last week #W1.
    Moving Averages:  
      • The weekly 5 EMA and 13 SMA, continue to stay in 'Touch' - to cross bearishly or deflect bullishly #W1.
      Indicators:
      • RSI 13 meanders in the 60s #W2.
      • TSI under pressure. to continue holding, above its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.

      Wrap:
      Bulls retake the Short Term Screen, Bears however keep Medium Term Screen in the neutral zone.




      Looking forward into this Week:


      Patterns:

      • Advantage Bears for keeping the Three Inside Up (Study Links herehere or elsewhere)  on the EOW, from forming #W1.
      Support & Resistance:
      • EOD channel Bottom and the monthly 5 EMA (1911) are the supports.
      • The deflection point for the Medium Term 5 EMA & 13 SMA (1966) #W1, is resistance to beat, for the Bulls.
      Moving Averages:
      • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW, will stay on Bullish deflection course, if Index closes above 1966, this week #W1
      Indicators:
      • TSI holding above the Fibonacci level 76.4%, works for the Bulls #M2.


      Wrap:
      Bulls seek deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA #W1 continuing, by closing above 1966.
      Bears would want to see the first monthly close below the 5 EMA (1911) after May 2012 #M1. 




      The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Kijun Sen Save 2 - Week 3 of August 2014.



      Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 15 Aug'14



      Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



      Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

      Kijun Sen saves the Bulls for the second week running #W2.

      Gap between Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen decreases further #W2.
      Gap between  Senoku Span A-B increases #W3.


      Wrap: Kijun Sen arrests the Index fall and saves the Bulls again #W2.




      Looking Forward into this Week:


      Keeping below the Tenkan Sen - Bears target the Kijun Sen again #W2.
      Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would continue to show direction going forward #W2.
      Chikou span deflecting off the Price line, augers well for Bulls #W1.


      Wrap: Bulls want life above the Tenkan Sen following the Chikou Span Deflection, Bears want to close this week below the Kijun Sen #W2.



      CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls slip above the wall - Week 3 of August 2014.



      Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 14 Aug'14



      Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 14 Aug'14



      Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 14 Aug'14





      Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


      Patterns:
      • Bulls slip Index above the August Wall. July Candle's High Wave effect, gives the Bulls some joy #M1. 
      • Last two candles on the Weekly chart form a 'Above the Stomach' Pattern #W1.
      Support & Resistance:
      • Bulls defending the Day Channel Bottom #D1. close above the 5 EMA on the EOW #W1
      • Bears fail to defend the August Pivot 7667 and give up the Wall 7721 #M1
      Moving Averages: 
      • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD cross bullishly mid-week to give Bulls dominance of all screens #D1.
      Indicators:
      • MACD and its MA touch for a Bullish Cross - reflecting the recent Bull moves #D2. 
      • STS below its resistance line - but remains in the over bought #W1.

      Wrap:
      Bears lose control of the short term screen after index slips above the August Wall 7721 (Study), Bears defend recent Highs #W1.




      Looking Forward into this Week:



      Patterns:
      • July candle's High Wave effect (Study links herehere or elsewhere) is on #W1.
      • The 'Above the Stomach' Pattern (Study links herehere or elsewhere) near the Highs, warrant a careful look #W1.
      Support & Resistance:
      • Bears seek to get below the confluence of the 5 EMA on the EOW (7669) & Month Pivot (7667) #M1 - the current Index support #W1.
      • Index  faces resistance at the last ATH (7841). 
      Moving Averages: 
      • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - however the MA's have initiated converging #D1.
      Indicators:
      • STS slipping below the overbought, augers well for the Bears #W1.


      Wrap:
      Bulls look to defend the Month Pivot #M1 and get above the ATH (7841) #M1.
      Bears look to get below the August Wall 7721 and break the EOD channel bottom #D1.




      BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bulls move up - Week 3 of August 2014.



      BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 14 Aug'14



      Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



      Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

      Bulls move up from recent lows and cross the Tenkan Sen #W2.
      Senkou Span A & B - gap dips #W3.
      Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap also dips #W2


      Wrap: Bulls climb above Tenkan Sen 
      #W2.




      Looking Forward into this Week:


      The Chikou Span, keeping current altitude, will need a couple of months to meet the price-line #W1.
      Bears look to defend recent Highs #W2.
      Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap narrowing favors the Bears #W2.


      Wrap: Bears look to get t
      he index below the Tenkan Sen and break recent lows , Bull focus is to keep above the Tenkan Sen to break the ATH #W2.




      Monday, August 11, 2014

      S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Touch - Week 2 of August 2014.



      S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 08 Aug'14



      S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 08 Aug'14



      S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Jan'14, onward - as on 08 Aug'14





      Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

      Patterns:
      • Bullish Harami forms on the Weekly Charts #W1.
      Support & Resistance:
      • Index within the current EOD channel - new declining channel seen #D1.
      • Index stays below the weekly 13 SMA #W1, tests the 5 EMA (1911) on the Monthly Screen #M1, and closes above this mark and the 5 EMA on the EOD.
      Moving Averages:  
        • The weekly 5 EMA and 13 SMA, 'Touch' - to cross bearishly or deflect bullishly #D1.
        Indicators:
        • STS 34 3 4, slips into the over sold #D2.
        • TSI under pressure. to continue holding, above its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.

        Wrap:
        Just when the Bears were getting control of the medium term screen, Bulls come close to retaking the short term screen - Medium and Short Term Screen therefore in neutral zone.




        Looking forward into this Week:


        Patterns:

        • Bullish Harami on the Medium Term Screen is now active (Study links herehere or elsewhere).
        • Bulls seek to make the above a Three Inside Up (Study Links here, here or elsewhere) #W1.
        Support & Resistance:
        • Current EOD channel (declining) Bottom and the monthly 5 EMA (1911) are the supports.
        • The deflection point for the Medium Term 5 EMA & 13 SMA (1957) #W1, is resistance to beat, for the Bulls.
        Moving Averages:
        • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW, will stay on Bullish deflection course, if Index closes above 1957, this week #W1
        Indicators:
        • TSI holding above the Fibonacci level 76.4%, works for the Bulls #M2.


        Wrap:
        Bulls seek deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA #W1 continuing, by triggering a Three inside up and closing above 1957.
        Bears would want to see the first monthly close below the 5 EMA (1911) after May 2012 #M1.