Saturday, May 26, 2012

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 21 May to 25 May, 2012 - Post consolidation moves..


Learning from the Past Week:
The Nifty stayed above the Fib61x on the EOD, and the 34 EMA crossed bearishly below the 200 DMA.
Both the above were studied by us last week, in 'Looking Forward' (click)
We had also smelled 'consolidation' in the air - our senses were accurate in that too.
Where after the consolidation? Up or Down? 





Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:   
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 25 May, 2012. 

Nifty EOM depicts the bearish 'Three Inside Down' and aftermath, in the last 4 candles (click)
The fourth candle shows us the real take for the Bears.
The S&P 500, also displayed the very same pattern (click), The Nifty is one candle ahead in the fall.





Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart: 
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 25 May, 2012.

Support on the 200 DMA is repeated last week.
After 4 red weeks we have a green week - Dawn?
The long tail of this week's candle, indicates Bull resilience.
Channel Median contains the close.




 Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action  (or) EOD Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 25 May, 2012.

The 34 EMA/200 DMA cross is shown in the first circle - also seen is the 50 EMA.
We shall replace the 200 DMA and 50 EMA with SMAs for simplicity, from next week.
With 200 SMA at 5072 and 50 SMA at 5154 on Friday last - Current Golden Cross can continue or we have a Death's cross, if these MAs close the 80 point gap, and cross each other.
The second circle shows the consolidation on the last 5 candles (1 week), above the Fib 61x.
The Bullish cross of the 5 EMA above the 13 SMA, can happen on Monday with a close above 4909.
The MACD histogram has finally peeked above the zero line as seen in the third circle.





Looking Forward into the next Week:
Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOD - the Bulls can take the Index up to the 200 DMA before settlement.
Falling below the Fib 61x on EOD screen or the 200 DMA on EOW screen - resumes the down trend.
Neither of the above means, more consolidation.

Bulls are current favorites.
Weekend updates shall be up.



BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 21 May to 25 May 2012 - Pink Power for the Sensex



                            .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 
Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.


Useful resources (free) from the Web:

Last 7 Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as on chart below:

1. The Kijun sen cross: Weak Bullish Signal (K)
2. The Flat Kumo: Bullish Signal (Ko)
3. The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Weak Bullish Signal (T)
4. The Kumo Breakout: Bearish Signal (B)
5. Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (C)
6. The Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (K)
7. The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (T)




BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:  
The BSE Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 25 May, 2012.  

Last week we anticipated the Pink Chikou Span, Crossing the Price line (click) - this happened 'A' on Monday.
This Chikou Span Cross is a Weak Bullish Signal - Weak because it occurred below the Kumo.
We have a green candle after 4 red ones in a row.
Bulls have held back the Bear Onslaught.



Conclusion:
Breaching the red Tenkan Sen line is the next task for the Bulls - this gives them the trend.
We shall watch for that.




The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 21 May to 25 May, 2012 - Kijun Holds..


                             .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click).


Quick Reference : 
Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.


Useful resources (free) from the Web:



Previous 5 Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as on chart below:

1. Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (C)
2. Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (T)
3. Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal (B)
4. The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)
5Tenkan Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (red line)




    DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:  
DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 25 May 2012  

This week we had a Green candle as seen in the chart above.
As concluded last week - the Kijun Sen (Blue line) - gave the Bulls Support.
Bulls however did not reach the Tenkan Sen (Red line) their first point of strength.
Oscillator continues to tick down.


Conclusion:
Index, keeping above the Kijun Sen, will keep this screen in neutral zone.
Price below the Tenkan Sen,  the trend remains with the Bears.
First sign of reversal is seen when the Bulls breach the Tenkan Sen.
We shall watch for that.



S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 21 May to 25 May, 2012 - Midpoint Holds



Learning from the Past Week:
We came into last week, with the market deep in the red.
As suggested last week (click) - the Channel Mid point held the Bears.
The MVWAP 34 on the EOW, also gave some solid support for the Bulls.
We had the Bulls smile with a green candle, after three red ones - Bingo!
What's next - up or down? Lets see the screens....





S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price move)  (or) EOM Chart:
S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - 25 May, 2012. 

The Middle line of our channel, stopped the Bears last week.
Bulls emphasized that they own this screen - with last week's action.
Closed the week above the 13 SMA, and below our other MAs.
Last three candles show a cool example of a bearish 'Three Inside Down' (click) even now.





S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price move) (or) EOW Chart:
S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - 25 May, 2012.

Perfect landing on the MVWAP 34 and a nice bounce from there.
This screen is back to Neutral - with the Bulls having the last word.
Moving above 1333 would put life into the Bull action next week.
Bears look at breaking the MVWAP 34 on the downside.





S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move)  (or) EOD Chart: 
S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) - 25 May, 2012.

Bulls started the week with a Bang, and finished with a whimper.
Close below the 5 EMA, keeps this screen officially red for now.
Breaking the 10 EMA resistance and keeping above the Blue line should keep the Bulls in play.
Good show on the MACD Histogram after last week's + divergence.




Looking Forward into the next week:
Bulls have pulled one back.
Keeping it above 1300 for month close would be important for Bulls.
Breaking the MVWAP 34 on EOW - would be the next task for Bears.
Bulls have staved off an imminent midlife crisis, with last week's action.
Now to follow up that action with some consolidation.


Friday, May 25, 2012

EOD Technical Analysis, CNX Nifty - 25 May 2012 - Bearing Golden Crosses..



Nifty - End of Day - 25 May 2012    

Continuing on the last post on this subject, lets do a long term study from 2008.
We were watching the 34 EMA and 200 DMA cross bearishly last week.
We also discussed the more famous 50 & 200 DMA* which have not yet crossed.


Golden Cross (we use the 200 DMA and 50 EMA - see link below) 
http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2010/07/15/roundup-trading-the-golden-cross-2/


From the Chart:
A -  The 2008 Fall : after a bearish cross.
B -  The 2009 - 2010 Bull run : after a bullish cross
C -  The 2011 Fall : We had a Bearish Cross
D -  The 2012 Spike : A Bullish Cross

'D' as you can see, has produced very little for the Long Term Bull.
Notice that we had the 5 EMA/13SMA cross on the EOM as validation (click).
This EOM cross was valid above 5199 for May'12 as studied earlier this month (click).
Helped us avoid a Bull trap.

The effect of 'E' is what one wants to see - we shall watch that one..

Revision of the reads on MA crossovers (studied last at 'D' )... for the weekend.



Tuesday, May 22, 2012

EOD Technical Analysis, CNX Nifty - 22 May 2012 - Long Term Crosses and Deflections



Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action  (or) EOD Chart:  
Nifty - End of Day - 22 May 2012    


In our weekend analysis (click) we saw support on the Fibonacci 61.8%, as seen on EOD chart above.
We also studied that, the deflection of the 34 EMA and 200 DMA would be a plus from long term perspective.
As seen in the first circle - the above MAs are touching at end of trade today (2 points away from crossing).

The more famous Golden Cross refers to the 50 EMA and 200 DMA cross - the 50 EMA in pink is also shown above. 
Meanwhile the Nifty is consolidating above the Fib61x - second circle.
The MACD looks like its bottoming out - third circle.

Nifty therefore has to take off above today's close - if the Bulls have to see bright, long term future.
If that does not happen - the 50 EMA & 200 DMA (Golden Cross) should deflect in the days to come (for the Bulls to let out a LONG sigh of relief).
We shall watch that space


Sunday, May 20, 2012

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 14 May to 18 May, 2012 - The Median and the Nifty..



Learnings from the Past Week:
We went into the last week with all screens showing red (click).
We said that the Bears would see the Dawn of 'Bull' times.
The Nifty shot up 100 points from the week's bottom on Friday (click).
This move was with the Fib61x (EOD) and 200 DMA (EOW) as supports.
Are the supports strong enough to warrant a decisive Bull up move- or is this a false dawn?
Lets find out...





Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:  
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 18 May, 2012. 

The EOM chart looks weak, with the Price below the 34 EMA.
You would have noticed by now, that the volume has been falling during this down move.
This means either that the real momentum is yet to kick in - or that the Bulls are just bidding time.





Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart: 
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 18 May, 2012.

The Nifty is at the Median, of our channel.
Bulls bounced off the 200 DMA - weekly.
We have a channel break favoring the Bears on the STS.
The long tail of the week's candle shows the Bull resilience.
Bulls had the volume up - Bears seem to keep it down - see the red and green arrows above.





Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action  (or) EOD Chart:  
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 18 May, 2012.

We notice that the MACD Histogram is getting shorter and heading to the plus zone.
The Nifty is at the Median, of  this smaller. EOD channel too.
Bulls found support on the the Fibonacci 61.8% of the 2008 low to 2010 high, marked on the EOD above.
The 34 EMA came within 15 points of bearishly crossing below the 200 DMA, on Friday's low.
Bounce from this low was 100 odd points.
The 5 EMA - EOD was the resistance for the Bulls on Friday.





Looking forward into next week:
Staying above the Fib 61x on the EOD & the 200 DMA on the EOW - the Bulls stay good for a strong up move.
Bearish cross of the 34 EMA & 200 DMA on the EOD, would be a long term blow for the bulls. 
Looking at the above and the rest of our weekly studies - one smells consolidation in the air.
Intra-week updates shall share that piece of the action.



BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 14 May to 18 May 2012 - Pink of Stealth



Our Conclusion of last week, was on the dot (click).


Last 7 Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as on chart below:

1. The Kijun sen cross: Weak Bullish Signal (K)
2. The Flat Kumo: Bullish Signal (Ko)
3. The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Weak Bullish Signal (T)
4. The Kumo Breakout: Bearish Signal (B)
5. Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (C)
6. The Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (K)
7. The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (T)



The arrows on the chart point to...

3. The Chikou Span (Pink Color Line) is stealthily approaching the Price line looking at crossing it maybe next week - that would be a Bullish Signal.
4. This week we see the Red Line (Tenkan Sen) cross the Blue line (Kijun Sen) from above. This signal is Bearish, also 'cause it happens below the Kumo its Strongly Bearish!.  
5. The Oscillator is ticking into the minus.



Conclusion:
Ever since the Kumo Breakout (B) we have had 4 Red Weeks + 4 Bearish Signals in a row.
Next week the Longs have a shot at a Green Bullish Signal as in '3'.
Nifty although deep in the red currently - has a potential to pause and even reverse based on above.




BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:  
The BSE Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 18 May, 2012.  



Introduction (for New Readers):

.....Regulars can skip this part......


We do a weekly Ichimoku study, to complement our 'Triple Screen Technical Analysis', of the markets that we track, in our quest to master Technical Analysis.

When taking the 'weekly' time frame, to use the Ichimoku Cloud, we need to consider the following..

The standard settings for an Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart are 9, 26, 52 and are used on EOD charts.  
When Ichimoku was created back in the 1930s, a trading week was 6 days long.  So we have one and a half week(9), one month(26) and two months(52). 
Now that the trading week is 5 days, we should actually use 7,  22 and 44 instead. 
However, the majority of systems, worldwide, still use the old settings 9, 26, 52. 

We need to study markets, on a weekly basis on this Blog.  
How do we fit 52, 26 and 9 into that need?  With one candle being one week?
There are 52 weeks in a year, 26 weeks form two quarters (or a half year) and 9 weeks equal about 2 months.  Fits the old logic - albeit differently.
Presto, we have a longer term view with the same settings!

So, if you like to move off the beaten track, for a change... do read on...


Quick Reference : 
Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.


Useful resources (free) from the Web:




Saturday, May 19, 2012

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 14 May to 18 May, 2012 - Gravity and Equilibrium revisited..


Gravity and Equilibrium revisited - Bingo!

Exactly 2 months ago when the Dow was at its peak - our Ichimoku study threw up a gem titled 'Gravity & Equilibrium' - here is the link (click).
At that time, we  saw the Dow gravitating down towards the Kumo.
Today, with half the journey done, we look back, and can repeat the last line of that post '..why else study?'

So here is this week's screen - do note that the Preamble now comes after the screen (and is for new readers).

Last 5 Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as on chart below:

1. Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (C)
2. Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (T)
3. Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal (B)
4. The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)
5Tenkan Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (red line)


The Arrows point to...

1. The Purple line is the Chikou Span - this one looks like it would touch and cross the Price line soon - Bearish Signal, if that happens.

2. The Price has stopped short of the Kijun Sen - Dark Blue line - Support here is considered good and Bulls can take heart from that. Bullish signal that.

Conclusion:  
Bears have done a good job of keeping the price below the Tenkan Sen (Red Line) for two weeks now. 
Bulls now need to use the Kijun Sen support to move the price above the red line.
From being a Bullish screen this one has become a Neutral one, from the Ichimoku point of view.


DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud: 
DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 18 May 2012  





Preamble (for New Readers):


.....Regulars can skip this part......


Introduction:

We do a weekly Ichimoku study, to complement our 'Triple Screen Technical Analysis', of the markets that we track, in our quest to master Technical Analysis.

When taking the 'weekly' time frame, to use the Ichimoku Cloud, we need to consider the following..

The standard settings for an Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart are 9, 26, 52 and are used on EOD charts.  
When Ichimoku was created back in the 1930s, a trading week was 6 days long.  So we have one and a half week(9), one month(26) and two months(52). 
Now that the trading week is 5 days, we should actually use 7,  22 and 44 instead. 
However, the majority of systems, worldwide, still use the old settings 9, 26, 52. 

We need to study markets, on a weekly basis on this Blog.  
How do we fit 52, 26 and 9 into that need?  With one candle being one week?
There are 52 weeks in a year, 26 weeks form two quarters (or a half year) and 9 weeks equal about 2 months.  Fits the old logic - albeit differently.
Presto, we have a longer term view with the same settings!

So, if you like to move off the beaten track, for a change... do read on...


Quick Reference : 
Chikou Span - purple line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.


Useful resources (free) from the Web: